Stuart's FX analysis

# Technical outlook: Ripple dropped through the $0.30500 lows intraday on Thursday before finding support and pulling back. The crypto is seen to be trading at around $0.31500 at this point in writing and is expected to resume higher towards $0.44800 at least in the next few trading sessions. Bulls need to hold prices above the $0.28700 interim support to keep the structure intact. Ripple has carved a larger degree corrective drop between $1.91600 and $0.28700 in the past several months. The above zigzag might have been complete and it could be the first wave of a much deeper correction below $0.28700 in the coming months. Ideally, a corrective rally should unfold towards $0.92750 at least before the next leg resumes lower. Ripple has also carved a lower degree upswing between $0.28700 and $0.38700 in the past few trading sessions as the first step towards the proposed corrective rally. Furthermore, prices have also retraced towards $0.30500, which is close to the Fibonacci 0.786 l...

# Technical outlook: Ethereum dropped through the $997 lows intraday on Thursday before finding support again. The crypto has pulled back sharply and is seen to be trading close to $1,025 at this point in writing. Bulls will be poised to come back in control and hit the $1,525 and $1,925 potential targets over the next few weeks. Ethereum has been working on its larger degree downswing between $4,850 and $880 since June 18, 2022. The above downswing unfolded as a zigzag and looks complete at $880 for the next few weeks. If the proposed structure holds well, prices would produce a meaningful corrective rally towards $2,400 at least. Ethereum has also carved a lower degree upswing between $880 and $1,280 in the past two weeks as seen on the chart here. Furthermore, prices have now retraced following the above upswing to $997, which is just below the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above upswing. The high probability remains for bulls to be back in control from here. Trading plan:...

# The USD/JPY pair dropped after failing to stay above the 136.71 key resistance. Now, it was traded at 135.90 at the time of writing. Technically, the price dropped below strong near-term downside obstacles signaling a potential deeper drop. Unfortunately, the Dollar Index plunged, that's why the USD started to depreciate. On the other hand, the JPY appreciated versus its rivals as the Yen Futures rallied. USD/JPY dropped even if the Japanese Prelim Industrial Production dropped by 7.2% versus the 0.2% drop expected, while the Housing Starts dropped by 4.3% even if the traders expected a 1.7% growth. Fundamentally, the greenback took a hit from the US data. Core PCE Price Index, Unemployment Claims, Personal Spending, and Chicago PMI came in worse than expected. USD/JPY Sell-off! USD/JPY failed to stay above 136.71 higher high, signaling exhausted buyers. It has registered only false breakouts, so the upward movement could be over for now. Also, it has failed to stay above th...

# The USD/CHF pair plunged in the last hours as the US dollar Index turned downside after the US economic data. When DXY drops, the USD/CHF pair could also drop. Still, please keep in mind that the US dollar Index maintains a bullish bias despite temporary declines. Fundamentally, the Swiss Franc received a helping hand from Switzerland's economic data. The Retail Sales dropped by 1.6% versus the expected 5.0%, while the KOF Economic Barometer came in at 96.9 points above the expected 96.2. As I've said above, USD was punished by the US Core PCE Price Index which increased by 0.3% versus 0.4%. Unemployment Claims came in at 231K, failing to reach the 228K estimates. In addition, Personal Spending surged by 0.2%, which is below the forecast of 0.4%, while the Chicago PMI dropped from 60.3 points to 56.0 points, far below the estimated level of 58.1. USD/CHF Trading In The Red From the technical point of view, the rate is trapped within a downward channel pattern. As long as...

# Technical outlook: Bitcoin prices have dropped through the $18,700 low intraday on Thursday as projected earlier. The crypto has pulled back above the $19,100 mark at this point of writing as bulls are now poised to push prices towards the level of $24,300 and $28,500. They will need to hold prices above the $17,500 interim low to keep the structure constructive. Bitcoin is now working on its larger degree downswing between $69,000 and $17,500 as discussed earlier. The drop has unfolded into a zigzag corrective structure (5-3-5) and needs to be retraced towards at least $37,300 and up to $49,500. If the above-proposed structure holds well, bulls will be back in control from here. Bitcoin has also carved its lower degree upswing between the levels of $17,500 and $21,800 in the past few trading sessions. Furthermore, prices have now dropped through the $18,700 level, which is just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the above upswing. Ideally, bulls are expected to be soon bac...

# Central banks have thrown all their forces into the fight against inflation. The problem is that the structure of consumer prices in different countries of the world has significant differences. Some of the regulators are able to suppress domestic demand, while others are forced to rely on luck. For example, the fact that oil and gas prices will fall on their own. Without this, it will not be possible to celebrate victory. It is clear that in the latter case, we are talking about the ECB, which gives an advantage to the "bears" on EURUSD. According to Bloomberg research, the main contributor to the growth of the American CPI is services, European—energy products, British—a little bit of everything. If so, then the Fed's hands are free and it can raise the federal funds rate above the neutral level of 3–3.5%, while the Bank of England will be forced to stop there, and the ECB is unlikely to reach the rate at all, which neither stimulates nor constrains the economy. Str...

# According to the pound/dollar instrument, the wave marking now requires additions and adjustments, but it may still take a more or less digestible form. At the moment, the last downward wave has gone beyond the low of the expected downward trend segment, which I consider completed. Thus, the classical correction structure a-b-c will no longer work. Nevertheless, wave analysis allows the construction of various correction structures, so a more complex three-wave formation w-x-y can be constructed. Anyway, the pound and the euro continue to show a very high degree of correlation, and both instruments should build approximately the same trend areas. Ascending. At the same time, according to the euro currency, it can be a classic a-b-c, and according to the pound, a rarer w-x-y. But in both cases, the instruments should now build an ascending wave, which should go beyond the peak of the previous ascending one. However, at the moment, both instruments show more of their desire to resume ...

# Early in the American session, GBP/USD extended heavy losses when it failed to break above 1.23. The pair remains under intense selling pressure for the second day in a row. The bearish movement accelerated at the beginning of the American session and took the pair to the 1.2155 zone. The pair may continue to fall until reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The US dollar (USDX) attracted buyers in reaction to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and accelerated a bullish move to the highest level since June 17 around 104.68. This, in turn, put downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Powell reaffirmed expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes and said the US economy was well-positioned to withstand tougher policy. On the 4-hour chart, we can see the formation of a downtrend channel since June 15. In the coming hours, the British pound is expected to continue falling and manage to bounce off the bottom of the trend channel located at 1.2100 – 1.2110. According to...

# Stocks moved lower while bonds surged. Traders are assessing comments from the heads of major central banks for clues as to the policy and global economic outlook. The S&P 500 index hovered around 3,815, a level that investors have been closely watching. The quarterly rebalancing of portfolios contributed to volatility in the stock market. The dollar appreciated against most major currencies. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US is in "strong shape" and "well positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy." He reiterated the commitment to bring inflation down, adding that the process is highly likely to cause some "pain." Powell also said the Fed is raising rates "expeditiously" and aims to move "into restrictive territory fairly quickly," referring to having borrowing costs at levels that would restrain rather than spur economic growth. European indices are falling, putting pressure on the year's low: Europe...

# Bitcoin plunged in the short term after failing to take out the resistance represented by 21,708. Now, it is traded at the 20,052 level at the time of writing. Cryptocurrency stands right above a strong downside obstacle. BTC/USD dropped by 3.00% from today's high of 20,440 to 19,827 today's low. In the short term, it has changed little. Technically, Bitcoin could move somehow sideways in the short term before developing a strong move in one direction. BTC/USD Trapped Within A Range! It's trapped between 21,708 and 19,743 levels. Now, it's almost to hit the 19,743 downside obstacle. Personally, I've drawn a descending pitchfork hoping that I'll catch a new sell-off. In the short term, the bias remains bearish as long as it stands below the upper median line (uml). Bitcoin could bring new opportunities from around the 19,743 former low. It remains to see how it will react. The bias is bearish, so personally, I will look for potential short opportunities. ...

# Buy the rumor, sell the fact. This age-old market principle fits the EURUSD more than ever. The euro rose on expectations of Christine Lagarde's aggressive "hawkish" rhetoric in Sintra, Portugal, but after the Frenchwoman's statement about a gradual increase in the deposit rate, it collapsed to 1.05. After some time, history repeated itself: the news about the rise of Spanish inflation to 10% in June became a catalyst for the rally of the main currency pair, but as it moves upward, the number of sellers is growing rapidly. Investors hoped that after the slowdown in consumer prices in Spain from 9.8% in March to 8.5% in May, the peak was passed. It turned out that everything was just beginning. June's 10% beat all the forecasts of 15 Bloomberg experts, demonstrating the hard work the ECB has to do to get inflation back on target. Will Lagarde's leisurely trek, at the beginning of which the central bank will raise rates by 26 bps, be enough? Dynamics of Euro...

# Ripple is trading in the red at 0.3252 on the H1 at the time of writing. The bias remains bearish, so we cannot exclude more declines if BTC/USD drops deeper. Still, it remains to see what will really happen as the rate reached a strong confluence area. XRP/USD dropped by 9.56% from yesterday's high of 0.3536 to 0.3197 today's low. The altcoin is at crossroads, it could bring new opportunities soon. XRP/USD Long or Short? As you can see on the H1 chart, XRP/USD dropped deeper after retesting the weekly pivot point of 0.3530 and the ascending pitchfork's lower median line (lml). Now it has found support on the ascending pitchfork's warning lien (wl1) and on the descending pitchfork's median line (ml). Technically, we have a strong confluence area at the intersection between these downside obstacles. Personally, I'll wait for either a valid breakdown or a false breakdown before taking action. Ripple Prediction! A valid breakdown through the confluence are...

# Stocks pared gains as losses in technology shares tempered optimism with China cutting its quarantine period for travelers and giant Wall Street banks boosting their dividends. Treasury bond yields rose along with the dollar. Economically sensitive stocks such as financial, energy and industrial ones performed better in the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley boosted bank profits after increasing payouts and announcing a share buyback of up to $20 billion. Airlines, cruise operators and casinos rallied as Beijing's actions increased optimism. However, it all looks like corrections as part of the big drop: European stock indices are following the US trend. However, they have not yet updated their lows for the year: Federal Reserve officials will discuss whether to raise rates by 50 or 75 basis points when they meet next month, with the decision being determined by economic data, New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday. While the official expects growth to slow and the ...

# When Mario Draghi said 10 years ago that the ECB would do whatever was necessary to save the euro, he didn't know that, ironically, he would become the prime minister of a country that could kill the European currency. Italy's public debt exceeds 150% of GDP, with €200 billion to be repaid in 2022 and €305 billion in 2023. At the same time, the ECB's monetary tightening process, which starts in June, leads to an increase in borrowing costs and increases debt servicing costs. All this increases the risks of default and the collapse of the eurozone. Bulls on EURUSD have something to fear. No wonder they take a step back after one or two steps forward. ECB President Christine Lagarde is well aware of the gravity of the current situation, so she promised the markets an anti-fragmentation program. It is aimed at narrowing the yield spreads of the same Italian bonds with German ones. An increase in the indicator indicates stress in the debt market, while its decrease indicates...

# The US dollar will be in the spotlight this week with the Fed’s favorite inflation measure on Thursday ahead of the ISM manufacturing PMI on Friday. Concerns about rampant inflation have been overshadowed by fears of a recession, so these releases could be crucial in shaping the narrative around the Fed. Overall, the dollar is unlikely to lose its shine while energy prices remain so high, torturing the euro and yen. Inflation or recession? The narrative in financial markets has shifted lately. Concerns around inflation running wild have taken a back seat, replaced by worries that economic growth is about to slow down dramatically. The risk of recession is the new public enemy. Such concerns were reflected in the latest S&P Global PMI surveys, which showed a “remarkable drop in demand for goods and services” alongside a very sharp decline in business confidence. Several major retailers have also been complaining about having inventory they cannot unload, the housing market is fe...

# The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument continues to look convincing and does not require adjustments. In addition, the markup has not changed in recent weeks, as the market is completely calm. The instrument has completed the construction of a downward trend segment. If the current wave marking is correct, then the construction of a new upward trend section has begun at this time. It can turn out to be three-wave, or it can be pulsed. At the moment, two waves of a new section of the trend are visible. Wave A is completed, and wave b is also presumably completed. If this is indeed the case, then the construction of an ascending wave c has now begun. The instrument has not decreased under the low of the descending trend section, so the wave marking still retains its integrity. However, I note that the downward section of the trend may complicate its internal wave structure and take a much more extended form. Unfortunately, a very promising wave markup may ...

# According to the pound/dollar instrument, the wave marking now requires additions and adjustments, but it may still take a more or less digestible form. At the moment, the last downward wave has gone beyond the low of the expected downward trend segment, which I consider completed. Thus, the classical correction structure a-b-c will no longer work. Nevertheless, wave analysis allows the construction of various correction structures, so a more complex three-wave formation w-x-y can be constructed. Anyway, the pound and the euro continue to show a very high degree of correlation, and both instruments should build approximately the same sections of the trend. Ascending. At the same time, according to the euro currency, it can be a classic a-b-c, and according to the pound, a rarer w-x-y. But in both cases, the instruments should now build an ascending wave, which should go beyond the peak of the previous ascending one. The wave marking on the British now looks not quite unambiguous, bu...

# On Monday, oil continued to rise due to investors' expectations of new sanctions against Russia. Brent crude oil futures for August at London's ICE Futures Exchange advanced by 1.47% to $110.70 a barrel. By that time, WTI crude oil futures for August on the NYMEX electronic session had gained 1.63% to $109.35. Moreover, Brent crude oil jumped by 2.8%, while WTI crude oil surged by 3.2% last Friday. Oil quotes may stop recovering due to the G7 leaders' plans to revive the nuclear deal with Iran. This move helps to find alternatives to Russian oil amid US slow economic growth. A French government spokesman said the EU's foreign policy chief had met with the top Tehran officials to resume nuclear talks. Moreover, the G7 has not yet reached an agreement on reducing Russia's revenues from oil exports. Nevertheless, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said to the media that the discussions on this issue were held in the US government. Sullivan assured the pub...

# The price of Bitcoin plunged in the short term and it seems very heavy after failing to confirm a larger rebound. It was traded at 20,722 at the time of writing. BTC/USD dropped by 5.91% from 21,868 yesterday's high to 20,575 today's low. Technically, the crypto could move sideways in the coming period, but you should keep in mind that the bias remains bearish. In the last 24 hours, BTC/USD is down by 3.0% but it's still up by 0.98% in the last 7 days. BTC/USD Bears In Control! BTC/USD challenges the 150% Fibonacci line and the weekly pivot point of 20,837. These are seen as downside obstacles. As you can see on the H4 chart, the rate found resistance at 21,708 again. It has registered only a fasle breakout through this upside obstacle signaling that the upside movement is over. It's trapped between 21,708 and 19,666 levels. In the short term, it could come back down to test and retest the immediate downside obstacles. BTC/USD Outlook! Stabilizing below the piv...

# XAU/USD continued to struggle to break out of the bearish channel formed on June 16. In the European session, the price reached the top of the downtrend channel at around 1,840. Below this level, gold is under strong downward pressure. The metal is currently trading at 1,831 around the 21 SMA with a bearish bias. At the opening of the negotiations on June 27, gold left a GAP at 1,826. This has not been covered. Gold is likely to extend its fall in the next few hours and could close this gap. It could even reach the support of 1,818. The recent sharp drop in commodity and energy prices appears to have allayed fears about the risk of a further rise in inflationary pressure. It is a factor that weighs on gold that is considered a safe haven. According to the 4-hour chart, gold has weekly support of 1,825 and monthly support of 1,818. Both levels are expected to give gold a technical rebound and it could once again reach the 1,837 area. One last support has turned into a strong bott...

# The GBP/USD pair is extending its sideways movement. I'll wait for the rate to escape this pattern before going long or short. The price dropped a little after reaching the 1.2331 level but the retreat ended as the Dollar Index's drop weakened the USD. Fundamentally, the USD remains sluggish in the short term after the Flash Services PMI and the Flash Manufacturing PMI reported worse than expected data on Thursday signaling a slowdown in expansion in both sectors. On Friday, the US and UK data came in mixed. Today, the US Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, and Pending Home Sales reported a 0.7% growth each, beating expectations but the USD is still in a corrective phase in the short term versus its rivals. GBP/USD Range Pattern! GBP/USD is trapped between 1.2324 and 1.2165. The 1.2208 - 1.2165 support area held so the rate came back higher towards the 1.2324 static upside obstacle. The price escaped from the triangle pattern signaling strong upside pressure...

# USD/JPY Up Channel! The USD/JPY pair increased in the short term after ending its strong drop. Now, it is trading at 135.24 at the time of writing. The price action developed an up-channel pattern, a flag formation that could bring a downside continuation. As you already know from my analyses, 135.58 represented an upside obstacle in the past. So, this level and the channel's upside line are seen as upside obstacles. On the other hand, the channel's downside line represents a downside obstacle. I'll wait for the rate to escape from this pattern before buying or selling. USD/JPY Trading Conclusion! Jumping and stabilizing above the 135.58 and above the channel's upside line activates a potential growth towards the 136.68 higher high. Staying below the upside obstacles and dropping below the minor uptrend line (channel's downside line) validates more declines. Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# The EURUSD looked oversold while approaching the price levels of 1.0800. That's when a temporary upside movement was approaching the price levels around 1.1200. This recent movement towards 1.1200 was suggested for another SELL opportunity which already reached its targets beyond the price level of 1.0400. The previous ascending movement above 1.0600 enabled further advancement towards 1.0800 where evident bearish rejection arises again. Currently, the EURUSD pair remains trapped between 1.0350 (the newly recorded Low) and 1.0750 which corresponds to the nearest existing SUPPLY level. On the other hand, the pair remains trapped under selling pressure to challenge the recent daily low around 1.0350 until breakout occurs in either direction. Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# The short-term outlook turned bearish when the market went below 1.3600. This enhanced the bearish side of the market initially towards 1.3360 then 1.3200 which initiated a temporary bullish movement towards 1.3600 for a final re-test. The price level of 1.3600 corresponding to the upper limit of the ongoing bearish channel initiated an aggressive bearish movement towards 1.2980 - 1.3000. The price level of 1.3000 stood a transient Support where a short-term consolidation movement existed. This happened just before two successive bearish dips could take place towards 1.2550 and 1.2160. Considerable bullish rejection was expressed around 1.2200. However, the pair failed to persist above 1.2550. This was needed to abolish the short-term bullish scenario for sometime. Instead, a quick bullish movement was executed towards 1.2650 where extensive bearish rejection existed. The GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the new low around 1.2150 again which was tempora...

# Calm. This is how we can characterize the current balance of power in the EURUSD pair. Quotes are dancing up and down, but neither bulls or bears can take them outside the trading range of 1.045-1.06. What lulled the main currency pair? And when will it begin to show signs of life? The answer to the first question is quite simple. The European Central Bank calmed the European debt market with its emergency meeting and a report on the development of an anti-fragmentation instrument, as a result of which the yield spread of Italian and German bonds decreased from 247 to 200 bps. The Federal Reserve has clearly outlined its position. It will do everything possible to return inflation to the target, even to the detriment of economic growth. Let the recession come to the US, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues will continue to raise rates. The markets realized the path that the central bank intends to take and calmed down. Not for long, I'm afraid. Inflation in the US ...

# On the 4-hour TF, the current picture of bitcoin is also very eloquent and does not raise any questions. There is a clear descending channel that has been maintained for a long time. The cryptocurrency is not even trying to gain a foothold above it, but at the moment, it is at its lower limit. Thus, in the near future, bitcoin may adjust to the level of $ 24,350, and a rebound from this level may indicate the beginning of a new fall. Although we continue to believe in the further fall of the first cryptocurrency in the world, it should be noted: that this does not mean that bitcoin will lose another $ 5-10 thousand of value in the next couple of weeks and, thus, will fulfill the goals we have set. Bitcoin can easily and simply consolidate for a month or two or three before starting a new round of decline. However, the absence of a fall in the coming months will not mean that the downward trend is over. This point should be clearly understood. Thus, now it is possible to prepare for...

# Throughout the past week, the first cryptocurrency in the world has been desperately trying to recover. Recall that the last round of the fall was $ 14,000. After it was completed, Bitcoin managed to climb by $ 4,000 for 8 days. From our point of view, this state of affairs perfectly reflects the mood of crypto traders. Recall that in the last 7-8 months, we have repeatedly said that we expect a global downward correction. Now it is safe to say that bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market are in a new "bearish" trend, which can last for a very long time. Recall that the key factor in the latest "bullish" trend was not even the pandemic itself, but a sharp easing of monetary policy by almost all central banks of the world. Rates were lowered to zero, regulators began printing money to support the economy by hundreds of billions. Naturally, in this scenario, many assets began to rise in price. It's just that if the definition of "inflation" is ap...

# Long-term perspective. The GBP/USD currency pair has gained 40 points during the current week. In general, the pair was practically immobilized all week and was strictly under the critical line. Thus, the euro and the pound once again showed that they are trading almost identically. The only difference is that the euro is near its 20-year lows, and the pound is near 2-year lows. As you can see, even the fact that the Bank of England has already raised the key rate five times does not play any role for traders. We have already said in previous articles that this is most likely because the market is now completely focused on the US, the Fed, and the US currency, and practically ignores the other factors. That is, formally, the British currency now has grounds for growth, but they do not play any role now. Thus, we can only draw the same conclusion as before: the pound can show corrective, technical growth, but no more. As you can see, it has the same big problems when trying to overc...