Stuart's FX analysis

# USDCAD higher today USDCAD trades between the 100 /200 bar MA on 4-hour chart The USDCAD moved down last week and in the process stalled near the 38.2% of the move up from the August low at 1.3500. There is a swing area near that level up sto 1.3510. Holding the support area, led to a rally on Friday. THe price moved near the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and closed. Today, after an early Asian dip took the price below the 200 bar MA, buyers pushed the price back above the MA line. The price has been able to stay above that MA line.That MA line currently comes in at 1.36198 The higg price moved to 1.3684. That was above a swing area between 1.3637 to 1.3366, but fell short of the higher 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.37177. The price has rotated back lower and looks toward the 200 bar MA below at 1.36198. What now? The current bar low reached 1.3626. That was within 7 pips of the rising 200 bar MA The current price is back at 1.3639. If the buyers are to keep control,...

# On Friday, the key European stock indices declined amid weak corporate earnings reports for the third quarter of 2022 from top European companies. At the time of writing, the composite indicator of Europe's leading companies STOXX Europe 600 lost 0.37% and fell to 407.03 points. The French CAC 40 dropped by 0.25%, the German DAX sank by 0.57%, and the British FTSE 100 went down 0.37%. Top gainers and losers The stocks of European energy companies Eni and Equinor soared by 2.7% and 4% respectively amid a significant increase in net income and revenue at the end of the third quarter. The key reason for positive results of the companies was a permanent rise in energy prices in the EU. The stocks of German automobile concern Volkswagen dropped by 4%. At the end of July-September, the company's profits sank by 27% to 2 billion euros due to the suspension of operations in Russia. The market capitalization of European aerospace corporation Airbus SE dropped by 0.3%. At the sa...

# Overview : Pivot : 0.9946. The EUR/USD pair's rise from 0.9798 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.9900 resistance first on the one-hour chart. All elements being clearly bullish market, it would be possible for traders to trade only long positions on the EUR/USD pair as long as the price remains well above the price of 0.9798. The EUR/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 0.9798 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.9798 which represents the daily pivot point. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.9873. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 0.9873, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objectives between 0.9873 and 1 USD this week. Currently, the price is in...

# Red lines- medium-term bullish channel Green lines- short-term bullish channel Despite recent selling pressures on USDJPY, price is respecting the short-term channel boundary at 145.90. As we mentioned in previous posts, we are now at a crucial junction that can decide whether we continue another 500 pips lower or we resume the up trend. USDJPY has tested support at 145.90 and so far bulls have managed to defend it. Price is bouncing off the lower channel boundary. As long as price is above 145.90 we expect USDJPY to form new highs towards 152. A break below 145.90 would be a sign of weakness and a confirmation that a bigger pull back towards 140 has started. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# US stocks are struggling for direction after a mixed bag of earnings was accompanied by economic data that supports the idea that the economy is weakening. It looks like the economy is still headed for a recession, but that might reinforce Fed pivot calls which still seems to be driving some inflows back into equities. ​ ​ ​ Super Thursday will resume after the close when Apple and Amazon report after the bell. ​ ​ This is peak earnings season and at the end of the day, we will know if investors are going to shun tech stocks for a little while longer. ​ Facebook takes a hit Mark Zuckerberg is looking reckless here. Meta shares plunged after revenue collapsed and they decided to nearly double their CAPEX. ​ It looks like Sheryl Sandberg’s departure was well-timed as this ship is clearly sinking. ​ Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment was boosted and now everyone is expecting Meta to have a free cash flow problem. Caterpillar Caterpillar did not disappoint this earnings season...

# 100 day MA comes in at 1.00935 EURUSD moves closer to its 100 day moving average The EURUSD moved to a new high at 1.0080. That got within 13 pips of the falling 100 day moving average at 1.00935, and a swing area between 1.0096 and 1.0121. The price is not traded above its 100 day moving average since February 11 at 1.1412. The EURUSD moved to a low in September at 0.9535. The move to the upside today has taken the price above the swing high from September 20 at 1.0050 and also the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the August high at 1.00473. That area is now a close risk level. Stay above is more bullish in the short-term. Move below and traders will I the high price from early October at the parity level. Below that is the 50% retracement along with the swing low from July near the 0.9951 level. Buyers are making a play as the US dollar moved lower today. However the 100 day moving average will be a key target and barometer. The first test could be a tough nut to...

# Looks toward the swing high from last week AUDUSD Basis against the 100 hour moving average today The AUDUSD is trading to a new session high and in the process is looking toward the swing hi from yesterday's trade 0.6410. There is a swing area between that level and 0.64159 to get to and through if the buyers are to take the next steps. A move above would then target the 0.64318 level. Above that is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September high at 0.64545. Looking at the hourly chart, the low price today based against its 100 hour moving average currently at 0.6303. Stay above that level was a bullish tilt. The price is also above its 200 hour moving average which currently has at 0.62925 (green line in the chart above) The trading range at the start of the New York session was only 46 pips. That was very narrow compared to the 22 day average of 115 pips. However staying above that 100 hour moving average, and the overall dollar selling has now more...

# Buyers fail on the break of the 100 and 200 hour MA USDCAD falls back below the 200/100 hour moving average The USDCAD moved to and through both its 100 hour moving average at 1.3742 and its 200 hour moving average 1.37637. However, the breaks could not be sustained and the price has rotated back below the moving averages. Earlier today, the price moved above the 100 hour moving average but quickly rotated back to the downside. The move back to the downside stalled near the 61.8% retracement of the October trading range at 1.36836 before rotating back higher. Now with the moves above both the 100 and 200 hour moving average, and the 2 separate failures, the buyers are not impressing from a technical perspective. They took 2 shots and each missed. The buyers turned to sellers. Stay below the 100 hour moving average will be close resistance now. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Analysis of Friday's deals: 30M chart of the GBP/USD pair The GBP/USD pair managed to travel significant distances in both directions on Friday. In the morning, the price settled below the rising trend line and entirely made it clear that it was ready for a fall, in the afternoon it was already growing. Thus, the pound is now moving slightly better than the euro. In the morning, it had reason to show a decline, as the only report of the day - retail sales in the UK - turned out to be much worse than the forecasted values, which could have provoked a fall in the pound. True, at the same time, the euro was also falling, to which the report on British trade had nothing to do, so we believe that this report has nothing to do with it at all. Nevertheless, the market had a formal reason to sell. It's a mystery as to why we witnessed the pound rise by 250 points in the afternoon. On the one hand, the pound has been trading very volatile for several weeks now. And at such considera...

# Analysis of Friday's deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade downwards after settling below the rising trend line. However, during the US trading session, there was again a surge of emotions in the foreign exchange market and the dollar began to fall sharply. Moreover, it did this for no apparent reason, since we did not expect any important macroeconomic statistics or events at this time. Thus, the dollar simply fell by 160 points in a few hours. We remind you that the market can trade actively even without macroeconomics and "fundamentals". If we don't receive any, this does not mean that the pair will stand in one place all day. And on such days we trade based on technique. Recently, the euro/dollar continues to move in a manner that is not entirely adequate. On the one hand, it seems to be trying to start forming a new upward trend, but on the other hand, it does so in a sluggish manner, with constant pullba...

# EUR/USD Higher timeframes By the end of the week, the pair returned to the area of the weekly short-term trend (0.9868). Breakthrough and reliable consolidation above will switch attention to the resistance zone of 1.0000-1.0024 (psychological level + weekly Fibo Kijun). The daily cross (0.9794 – 0.9754 – 0.9733) is now consolidating its efforts to contain the situation and serve as a support for bulls. Further, overcoming the lowest extremums 0.9632 - 0.9536 will be important. H4 – H1 The main advantage in the lower halves belongs to the players to increase. In addition to the resistance of the classical Pivot levels, the target for the breakdown of the Ichimoku cloud H4 (1.0039 - 1.0095) can be attributed to upward references in the current situation, which was not fully realized earlier, therefore, retains its value. If the support of the weekly long-term trend returns to the bears, then the advantages will again be on the side of the supporters of the decline. Reference poi...

# The greenback failed to maintain its fighting spirit on Friday, failing to build on the previous day's bounce. During Thursday's Asian hours, the defensive dollar came under pressure amid renewed optimism that China could move away from a zero-tolerance policy for COVID-19. Luck has turned against dollar bulls and S&P 500 futures have turned higher after Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with it, that Chinese officials are debating whether to shorten the amount of time people arrive in the country, must be in mandatory quarantine. In addition, the People's Bank of China has kept monetary policy at a favorable level to support economic growth in the country. In the European session, the greenback extended the pullback from the two-day highs reached on Wednesday at 112.90 points. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures held in positive territory. At the start of trading in New York, the greenback was marked by a decrease of almost 0.7%, while the broad market inde...

# On Friday, the key European stock indices declined amid fresh UK statistics. Moreover, investors continue to analyze weak corporate earnings reports for the third quarter of 2022 from European top companies. At the time of writing, the composite indicator of Europe's leading companies STOXX Europe 600 fell by 1.5% to 392.81 points. The French CAC 40 lost 1.55%, the German DAX sank by 1.33%, and the British FTSE 100 dropped by 0.6%. Top gainers and losers The stocks of German manufacturer of sports goods Adidas dropped by 8.5%. Earlier, the company's management lowered its financial forecast for 2022 for the third time since the start of the year amid weak demand for goods and COVID-19 restrictions in China. According to the preliminary reports for the third quarter, Adidas's profits from continuing operations fell 2.7 times as the company wound down its business in Russia. Meanwhile, the quotes of Adidas's biggest competitors German Puma and British JD Sports F...

# JAPANESE YEN WEEKLY FORECAST: NEUTRAL Recommended by Ilya Spivak Get Your Free JPY Forecast Get My Guide The Japanese Yen exploded higher in the closing hours of last week’s trade. The benchmark USD/JPY exchange rate came within a hair of the 152 figure for the first time since May 1990, then plunged. It is on course to finish the day down nearly 2 percent, marking the biggest one-day rise since early March 2020. Those gains were scored amid the risk aversion triggered in the early days of the Covid-19 outbreak. Japan Almost Certainly Intervened in FX Markets Again The high to low intraday swing registered this time came to a telltale 3.78 percent, matching with almost perfect precision the move marked by Japan officials’ intervention in FX markets on September 22. In that episode, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) directed the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to buy Yen as USD/JPY probed above 145 for the first time in decades. Prices swung 3.8 percent top-to-bottom. Japanese officialdo...

# Sales of previously owned US homes fell for the eighth straight month in September, underscoring how soaring mortgage rates are punishing the housing market. According to data from the National Association of Realtors on Thursday, contract closings declined by 1.5% to an annualized pace of 4.71 million last month, the slowest since May 2020. The stretch of monthly decline is the longest since 2007, when a housing market collapse swept the economy into the Great Recession. Home sales have deteriorated rapidly this year as the Federal Reserve kicked off an aggressive campaign to crush inflation with high interest-rate hikes. "We are not yet at the bottom," Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist said on a call with reporters while talking to reporters. Yun expects the figures to keep deteriorating given the current data doesn't reflect where mortgage rates are now. Mortgage rates are now at a two-decade high, and applications to purchase or refinance a home have cru...

# 200 bar moving average comes in at 0.98515 EURUSD moves toward 200 bar moving average on 4 hour chart The EURUSD has moved to a new session high and in the process is moving toward the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.98515. Early this week, the price tried to extend above that moving average level on 4 separate bars on the 4 hour chart, but each attempt failed. The price highs stalled within a swing area between 0.9859 and 0.9877. The high price for the week reached 0.9875 on Tuesday. The move to the upside today has seen some ups and downs especially off of the price action helped by volatility in the GBPUSD from the Truss resignation. However, helping the tone today was the ability for the pair to bottom just ahead of the 200 hour moving average (green line in the hourly chart below). That moving average stalled the fall yesterday and again today, giving the buyers the go-ahead to push higher. Admittedly there was the volatility above and below the 100 hour moving av...

# The EUR/USD pair dropped today as the Dollar Index has managed to print a strong rebound. It was trading at 0.9783 at the time of writing, far below 0.9872 today's high. As you already know from my analyses, the pair maintains a bearish bias despite temporary rebounds. Yesterday, the Eurozone and the US economic data came in better than expected. Today, the Eurozone Final CPI rose by 9.9% versus the 10.0% expected, while Final Core CPI reported a 4.8% growth matching expectations. On the other hand, the US Building Permits came in at 1.56M above the 1.52M expected, while Housing Starts dropped from 1.57M to 1.44M below the 1.46M expected. EUR/USD Under Downside Pressure! Technically, the rate found resistance at 0.9873 and now it challenges the ascending pitchfork's lower median line (lml) which stands as a dynamic support. 0.9806 represents a static resistance while 0.9759 today's low represents a downside obstacle. As long as the currency pair stays above the lowe...

# GBP/USD New Downtrend Line! The GBP/USD pair increased within an up-channel pattern. The uptrend line represented a downside obstacle. Now, you can see that the rate dropped below it and the currency pair is trying to retest it. Dropping below this line signaled that the upside movement could be over and that the sellers could take the lead. The 1.1257 today's low represents a static downside obstacle. Personally, I've drawn a minor downtrend line which stands as an upside obstacle. As long as it stays below it, the GBP/USD pair could drop deeper. GBP/USD Trading Conclusion! Staying below the minor downtrend line and dropping below 1.1257 activates more declines and brings new selling opportunities. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# The British pound has returned to the highs of last week and is looking at its breakdown. All this is happening against the backdrop of the return of investor confidence, which was supported by expectations of the cancellation of the package of unjustified tax cuts proposed by Prime Minister Liz Truss at the beginning of the month, provoking the collapse of the national currency. The new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, said in an interview on Sunday that all discussions regarding the potential rejection of additional measures planned by the Prime Minister are over. In the near future, the new Finance Minister is expected to make a statement on the detailed measures of the medium-term financial plan. At the same time, the British Prime Minister also agreed to postpone her proposal to reduce income tax until 2024. We may have reached those minimums that will allow us to avoid a new tantrum. Any good news in finance and economics can help the pound recover. However, let us ...

# Inflationary expectations, which disappointed not only the markets, but also the Federal Reserve, helped put everything in its place, restoring justice. The dollar is rising again, while the euro and the pound went down after an artificial recovery. Earlier, the pound rose to its highest level in a week against the dollar amid reports that the British government plans to cancel part or all of its mini-budget. The happiness of the pound traders did not last long. In principle, such an outcome was clear from the outset. The conductor of the markets is the dollar. A short-term correction amid an illogical surge in risk appetite amid accelerating inflation in the US is no reason for a market reversal. Investors once again had to concentrate on the main problem. If the market does its best to ignore the existence of any problems, they will not disappear on their own. Therefore, market players once again had to convince themselves that the Fed will continue to raise rates at an acceler...

# Long-term perspective. The EUR/USD currency pair has lost about 30 points during the current week. Thus, after an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the critical line, the price remains lower and near its 20-year low. We have already said that strong trends usually end with a sharp departure in the opposite direction. What do we see in the euro currency now? It continues to trade in the same area as it has been doing lately. Thus, from a technical point of view, there is no reason to expect the end of the long-term global trend yet. There were practically no really important fundamental events this week. The only things we can note are several speeches by representatives of the ECB and the Fed, who assured the markets that they would continue to aggressively raise key rates. However, the European currency has not been helped by the ECB's two past rate hikes, so all subsequent ones may also not provide any support. The Fed's monetary policy is still a priority for traders, and...

# The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument still does not require adjustments at the moment, but it is undoubtedly becoming more complicated. It may be more complicated than that in the future. We saw the completion of the construction of the next five-wave impulse descending wave structure, then one upward correction wave (marked with a bold line), after which the low waves of 5 were updated. These movements allow me to conclude that the pattern of five months ago was repeated when the 5-wave structure down was completed in the same way, one wave up, and we saw five more waves down. There is no question of any classical wave structure (5 trend waves, 3 correction waves) right now. The news background is such that the market even builds single corrective waves with great reluctance. Thus, in such circumstances, I cannot predict the end of the downward trend segment. We can still observe for a very long time the picture of "a strong wave down-a weak corr...

# While the Fed is trying to catch up with runaway inflation, financial markets, on the contrary, are trying to act ahead of the curve. Investors are trying to predict what the central bank will do and make money on it. Since its actions are based on macrostatistics, interest in fundamental analysis has not been so high for a long time. The correlations of stock indices and the US dollar with the news are off the scale, and the most important release of data on US inflation made the markets hold their breath. Citi's Economic Surprise Index is an indicator showing the correspondence between expected and actual data. The release of the latter better than the forecast leads to an increase in the index and vice versa. Today, its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 has reached its highest level since 2015, and its direct relationship with the US dollar is the highest in the last 5 years. This explains why bad news for the economy is good news for the stock market, and good news fo...

# In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair fell to a low of 1.0923. Around this area, it found a strong technical rebound that reached the level of 1.1098 in the morning of the European session. However, it is difficult for GBP to take advantage of the movement and pull back in the American session due to the fact that around 1.1073, there is the 21 SMA that acts as strong resistance. The British Pound strengthened amid reports that the Bank (BoE) may be willing to extend its purchases beyond Friday. This news gave the pair bullish momentum, but it could remain under bearish pressure as long as it trades inside the bearish channel. Investors are waiting for the fresh US consumer inflation data to be reported on Thursday, which should play a key role in boosting demand for dollars in the short term and could push GBP/USD under downward pressure and it could drop to 6/8 Murray at 1.0742. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the British pound is trading inside a downtrend cha...

# Early in the American session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at around 1671. It is recovering from losses after hitting the 1,660 level in the European session. This technical rebound in gold is encouraged by a slight drop in yields of Treasury bonds. The future of gold could be determined by the crisis between Russia and Ukraine. Yesterday, Russia confirmed attacks with long-range nuclear weapons. In case of further escalation, the price of gold could quickly rise due to the fact that it is a refuge asset and it could reach the level of 1,750 and even the psychological level of 1,800. The last 4-hour candle shows a probable recovery of gold and its price could reach the 6/8 Murray zone around 1,687 in the next few hours. This level represents strong resistance. 1,692 (21 SMA) is located above this level and 1,695 matches the 200 EMA. In case there is a pullback towards this area, it will be a clear signal to sell gold around 1,687 - 1,695 with targets at 1,670 and 1,656. This techn...