Stuart's FX analysis

# Following the strong decline last Friday, which was related to the closure of many long positions, a key support level was formed around 1.08, where buyers could place their stop-loss orders. Considering that there is a three-wave pattern (ABC) in which wave A represents the selling pressure in EUR/USD, traders could enter the market today by selling from the current prices up to the 38% And 23% retracement levels. Set stop-loss at 1.0915, and then exit the market by taking profit after the breakdown of 1.08. This trading idea is based on the "Price Action" and "Stop Hunting" methods. Good luck and have a nice day! Don't forget to control the risks. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Early in the American session, the British pound is trading around 1.2373 below the 21 SMA and within the downtrend channel formed since January 9. We can see that the British pound is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle pattern. If GBP/USD pair breaks this technical pattern in the next few hours, we could expect it to continue falling, but to do so, the instrument will have to break the bearish channel sharply and consolidate below 1.2360. In case the British pound falls and trades below the 21 SMA located at 1.2381, there is a strong probability that it could fall and reach the strong support around 1.2207 (6/8 Murray) and finally reach the 200 EMA located at 1.2197. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell the British pound if it consolidates below 1.2360 with targets at 1.2305 and 1.2207(6/8 Murray). In case GBP/USD consolidates above 1.2415 on the 4-hour chart, it will be a clear signal to buy with targets at 1.2451(7/8 Murray) and 1.2500. The eagle indicator ...

# Euro Fundamental Forecast: Neutral Rate hikes from all three major central banks next week, apart from the Bank of England potentially, have been priced in ahead of next week’s meetings (Fed 25 bps, ECB 50 bps and BoE closer to 50bps than 25 bps). Therefore, markets will be more focused on clues regarding terminal rates and the path of future policy in the midst of lower inflation prints. With so many high-profile events on the docket next week, price action poses the threat of erratic moves however, the sheer volume of market moving information could provide the very catalyst markets have been searching for. The Neutral tag of the forecast has been put forward as shifts in sentiment next week have the potential to be drowned out by any number of other high impact data prints. EU Economic Sentiment Improves (GDP Forecasts, PMI) The milder winter weather in Europe appears to have kept a gas shortage crisis at bay which has helped motivate a slight upward revision in GDP growth from...

# S&P 500, SPX, NASDAQ 100, NDX - TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: Developments on the charts suggest US equity indices could be preparing for a break higher, raising the prospect that the worst could be over for now. S&P 500 INDEX TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – BULLISH The S&P 500 index is attempting to break above a crucial converged barrier: the 200-day moving average, coinciding with the early-December high of 4100. As noted in the previous update, a decisive break above the 200-day moving average barrier would be significant as it would be the first such break since the downtrend began a year ago and would support the case that US equities are attempting to form an important base. S&P 500 Daily Chart Chart Created Using TradingView Improving momentum on lower timeframe charts and the rise above a key downtrend line from early 2022 suggest that the tide could be turning up for the index. This follows a hold last month above the key Ichimoku cloud support on the daily chart, creating ...

# Gold rallied in the short term and now is almost to reach the first upside obstacle. It's located at 1,930 at the time of writing but it's trapped within a range pattern. Today, the fundamental factors should move the rate, so it's important to keep an eye on the economic calendar. The US is to release a new high-impact indicator today, the Core PCE Price Index is expected by traders to increase by 0.3%, Pending Home Sales could report a 1.0% fall, while Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment could remain steady for the second month at 64.6 points. XAU/USD 1,933 As Resistance! As you can see, XAU/USD is trapped between 1,918 and 1,933. It could move sideways if it fails to escape from this pattern. Still, personally, I believe that the US data could bring strong moves later. It has found support on the weekly pivot point. It has printed only false breakdowns through this downside obstacle. It has also failed to stay below the median line (ml) signaling exhausted sellers. XA...

# The Tesla report for the fourth quarter of last year received a very favorable market response, which helped improve the NASDAQ index. The business announced earnings that exceeded both profit and revenue. After CEO Elon Musk predicted that the company might create 2 million cars this year, shares increased by more than 5%. Earnings (adjusted): $1.19 vs. expected $1.13 per share; Revenue: $24.32 billion vs. expected $24.16 billion; The business also said that fourth-quarter revenue totaled $21.3 billion, up 33% from the same period the previous year. The fourth quarter of 2022 saw $467 million in loans received, which is nearly twice as much as the same time the year before. The auto industry's profit margin was 25.9%, the lowest it has been in the previous five quarters. Operating cash flow totaled $3.28 billion, a reduction of 29% from the previous year and 36% from the previous quarter. The business indicated that consumer affordability will be crucial for Tesla to deve...

# In the intermediate-term, the pair is just above the newly visited price levels around 0.9600 that haven't been visited since 2002. That's why, some bullish recovery was recently demonstrated especially around such an important psychological support. The nearest supply level was located around 1.0100 which failed to provide enough bearish pressure. On the other hand, Intensive bullish price action was demonstrated around the lower limit of the depicted movement channel. Initial bullish targets around 1.0150 and 1.0500 were already reached. Price action around the key-level of (1.0550-1.0600) was quite bullish. That's why, further bullish continuation towards 1.0800 was demonstrated. Moreover, more bullish advancement towards the nearest supply zone around 1.1150-1.1200 can be expected. O the other hand, any bearish pullback towards the price levels of 1.0000 should be considered as a valid long-term BUY opportunity. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source ...

# Gold price remains in a short-term bullish trend as price continues trading above the 4 hour Kumo (cloud). Support by the cloud is at $1,906. As long as price is above the Kumo, bulls will remain in control of the short-term trend. The tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) were recently tested by price. Both remain below current price. Both provide support at $1,921-26. A break below this short-term support level would be the first sign of weakness. So far price continues to respect both indicators. The Chikou span (black line indicator) confirms the bullish trend as it remains above the candlestick pattern. So far no sign of weakness in the 4 hour chart of Gold. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Red lines- bullish channel Blue lines- bearish RSI divergence EURUSD is making new multi month highs above 1.09.The week started on a positive note but as time passes, selling pressures have brought the pair back near the open prices of the week. The long upper tail in the Daily candlestick combined with the bearish RSI divergence are an important warning. Technically trend remains bullish as price is still making higher highs and higher lows inside the red upward sloping channel. Short-term support is found at 1.0767 recent low. The bearish RSI divergence is an important warning for bulls but not a reversal signal. Channel support is found at 1.0720. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Canadian Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Bullish The Canadian Dollar ended flat against the US Dollar this past week. That said, the Loonie spent the last few days mounting a comeback against the Greenback. On Friday, layoffs at Google helped trigger a rally in the tech sector, generally improving risk appetite with it. That dented the demand for havens, such as the US Dollar, sending USD/CAD lower to where it started at the beginning of the week. Canadian inflation data also crossed the wires last week. Headline CPI clocked in at 6.3% y/y in December versus the 6.4% estimate, dipping from 6.8% prior. This is as the trim and median core rates surprised slightly higher. The latter two are more closely watched by the Bank of Canada. Speaking of which, all eyes are on the BoC this coming week. On Wednesday, the central bank is expected to raise rates to 4.5% from 4.25%. If we look at market pricing on the chart below, traders are not anticipating any further increases after January’s in...

# Pound Sterling Fundamental Forecast: Mixed Daily GBP/USD Chart The pound sterling faces multiple headwinds: hiking into a period of low growth, stubborn (but slightly lower) inflation which has a negative effect on spending and unresolved issues around Brexit. The BoE has the unenviable task of continuing with rate hikes which may have already sent the country into a recession if the strike action in December results in negative economic growth for Q4. Alongside early encouraging inflation data, it appears that GBP prospects aren’t looking too good outside of GBP/USD where dollar selling has flattered the under pressure currency. Disappointing UK Retail Sales The pound sterling dipped on Friday after UK retail sales data revealed a month on month drop in both the ‘volume’ and ‘value’ metrics of the report. After November’s booze fueled World Cup economic bounce, UK consumers decided to tighten their belts in December as the cost-of-living squeeze lingers. During the strike-affec...

# Blue line- resistance Red line -support In our previous posts on Ford stock price we have succeeded in forecasting the decline towards $11 after the rejection at the $14.50 resistance area and we also forecasted the bounce towards the trend line at $13.50-13.80. Price once again shows rejection signs. Last week's candle was bearish because of the long upper tail. Price also got rejected at the trend line resistance and this week price is making new lower lows relative to the previous week. Price action suggests that Ford stock price should continue lower towards the major horizontal support of $11. As long as price is below the blue downward sloping resistance trend line, price will be vulnerable to producing a new bearish signal by breaking below $11. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Red lines- bearish divergence Bitcoin is trading around the key horizontal resistance of $21,400-$21,500. Short-term trend remains bullish as price continues making higher highs and higher lows. The RSI provides an important warning that the up trend is weakening significantly as we have second bearish divergence. The upside is limited for the time being. A pull back towards $19,00 is justified and should be expected. Support is at $20,950. A break below this level would signal the start of the pull back. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Previously, the GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the new daily low established around 1.2150 which was bypassed few days after. However, considerable support zone existed around 1.1850-1.1900 which has prevented further bearish decline for sometime. However, as bullish momentum started to fade away, more bearish visits were expected to challenge new historical low level around 1.0600 where significant Fibonacci Expansion level was located. Further bullish continuation above 1.1765 was expected in previous articles specially after the newly-established ascending bottoms around 1.1150 and 1.1750 remained defended by the bulls. Price action around 1.2340 was being watched for bearish rejection and a short-term SELL Entry. It is running in profits despite the temporary bullish bounce that has been expressed. On the other hand, another bearish pullback towards the price levels of 1.1750 should be expected for another long-term BUY Entry with initial target a...

# The two biggest banks today disclosed their earnings and costs for the fourth quarter of 2022. Goldman Sachs Earnings per share were $3.32 compared to the projection of $5.48; sales were $10.59 versus $10.83 billion; Naturally, Goldman CEO David Solomon will now have to respond to queries from investors over the length of the investment banking dry spell. Bankers had a difficult fourth quarter. The income from investment banking services was down last week for many organizations, and there are very slim prospects that it will turn around by the end of the year. In addition, there are many concerns regarding Goldman's projected personnel costs, particularly in light of the bank's recent 3,200 employee layoffs. The company's shares have already decreased by 2.6% in premarket trading. As for Morgan Stanley, the company also posted fourth-quarter earnings that were above economists' projections, bolstered by the bank's record earnings from asset management. Ban...

# EURUSD is trading just above 1.08 as price is again under pressure following Friday's negative session. Technically trend remains bullish as price continues making higher highs and higher lows. In Ichimoku cloud terms, trend has not changed as price remains above the 4 hour Kumo (cloud). In the near term there are some overbought signs by oscillators and a pull back at least towards the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) at 1.0675 is justified. At 1.0675 we also find the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). So this level around 1.0675 is very important support. Next support is found at the cloud at 1.0420. So far no sign of weakness. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Indices Technical Forecast: Bullish Recommended by James Stanley Get Your Free Equities Forecast Get My Guide It was a week of strength for stocks which furthers the theme that’s been brewing for the past few weeks. The S&P 500 was slammed a month ago after the release of CPI data for the month of November, despite the data printing below expectations. That prodded a possible reversal theme in equities with another push-lower a day later at the December FOMC rate decision. But, as highlighted here, a massive area of support came into play shortly after at 3802-3810 in the S&P 500, and that level held the lows into year-end. Along the way, a range began to build – and then an even tighter consolidation pattern showed with the build of a symmetrical triangle inside of that range. The symmetrical triangle started to give way last Friday but price remained constrained below range resistance at 3912-3928. A quick breakout to start last week snapped back, support showed...

# British Pound Fundamental Forecast: Bullish Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky Get Your Free GBP Forecast Get My Guide The British Pound gained 1.11 percent against the US Dollar last week, causing GBP/USD to close at its highest since the middle of December. This is despite some disappointing local economic data. UK Industrial production clocked in at -5.1% y/y against the -2.8% consensus in November. Manufacturing production also surprised lower for the same period. Markets were likely focused on the United States this past week. US inflation crossed the wires at 6.5% y/y, which was in line with expectations. Heading into the data, markets were probably increasingly anticipating a softer-than-expected outcome. But, statistically speaking, this scenario looked unlikely before the data crossed the wires. Still, markets viewed the in-line outcome as maybe boosting the probability of a sooner-than-anticipated pivot from the Federal Reserve. In fact, markets continue to increas...

# The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has announced plans to purchase additional government bonds as the country’s inflation likely hit a fresh 41-year-high in December. The central bank might consider further steps to address market distortions after a surprise decision to adjust its yield curve control program last month. BOJ to Conduct Outright Bond Purchases On Friday, the BOJ said it would buy additional Japanese government bonds on Monday. “The Bank will make nimble responses by conducting additional outright purchases,” the central bank has reportedly said in a statement, adding that it will decide the details based on market conditions. The move comes as Japan’s core consumer prices likely rose 4.0% in December, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The nation’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food items but includes energy, likely rose 4.0% from a year earlier, according to economists in the Reuters poll. Furthermore, the economists projected that ...

# Previously, the GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the new daily low established around 1.2150 which was bypassed few days after. However, considerable support zone existed around 1.1850-1.1900 which has prevented further bearish decline for sometime. However, as bullish momentum started to fade away, more bearish visits were expected to challenge new historical low level around 1.0600 where significant Fibonacci Expansion level was located. Further bullish continuation above 1.1765 was expected in previous articles specially after the newly-established ascending bottoms around 1.1150 and 1.1750 remained defended by the bulls. Price action around 1.2340 was being watched for bearish rejection and a short-term SELL Entry. It is running in profits despite the temporary bullish bounce that has been expressed. On the other hand, another bearish pullback towards the price levels of 1.1750 should be expected for another long-term BUY Entry with initial target a...

# Investors remain in an upbeat mood going into tomorrow’s US inflation report, buoyed still by the December jobs report and the prospect of the economy being less squeezed by interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell may have refrained from commenting on the monetary policy outlook on Tuesday but the chances are he wouldn’t have said anything investors would have liked even if he had addressed it. It’s been clear from other commentaries that policymakers are sticking to the hawkish script. Another good inflation number tomorrow could change that as the trend has already been very encouraging and the jobs data that appeared to throw a spanner in the works last month has since been revised out. From an investor perspective, it would take something pretty terrible tomorrow – the inverse of what we were treated to on Friday – to really rock the boat. Building confidence Bitcoin is missing out on today’s risk rally but traders will be relieved by how the last couple of days have gone. I...

# EUR/USD Daily Chart Bulls got a strong entry bar following last Friday’s strong outside up bar. Bulls want an upside breakout above the January high; however, even if they get it, the odds favor sellers not far above. The daily chart has been in a bull channel since the November 21st low and is likely evolving into a trading range. On the higher time frame charts like the weekly chart, the rally from October is a strong reversal up from the tight bear channel that began back in early 2021. This reversal up on the weekly chart is still probably a minor reversal up, which means the bulls will probably need a higher lower to get a major trend reversal and a second leg up. This means that the EUR/USD could easily sell off 300 pips before the bulls get a higher low major trend reversal setup. Overall, traders should expect mostly sideways trading over the next few weeks. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Major Western European indexes have advanced on Monday amid increased risk appetite among investors, who continued to analyze positive data from Germany and other EU countries. The stock market was also supported by news from the US and China. Commodity stocks led the upside at the beginning of the week. The STOXX Europe 600 gained 0.45% and reached 446.44 points. The CAC 40 edged up by 0.06%, the DAX increased by 0.29%, and the FTSE 100 rose by 0.2% to a three-year high. Indexes advanced following reports that China has reopened its borders, sparking hopes among investors that the world's second-largest economy will quickly recover. Biggest gainers and losers Shares of British video game developer Frontier Developments plummeted by 42.4% after analysts downgraded the company's financial outlook for 2023. German pharmaceutical and chemical corporation Bayer AG increased by 0.5%. The market capitalization of the British video games publisher Devolver Digital declined by...

# Prepare for the trading week ahead with Greg Michalowski There are a lot of transitions that are going on from a fundamental and technical perspective.. In this weekend video, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive, talks about the transitions that are occurring in the economy, politics and in the markets in his weekend Forex technical report. Set yourself up to understand the dynamics in play and how you might benefit in your trading this week in this state of transition. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Pound Sterling (GBP) Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Recommended by Richard Snow See what our analysts foresee in Q1 2023 Get My Guide After the Festive Season Companies are bracing for Lower Sales, Profits Next week we look forward to trading updates from retailers Sainsbury’s JD Sports, Tesco, Marks and Spencers and Asos with updates indicating that holiday shopping was not as bad as once feared particularly in the middle of railway and post office strikes. With this being the first Christmas free from Covid restrictions, food and clothing retailers have performed well considering the cost-of-living squeeze and inflation well into double digits. Grocery sales according to till data from market researcher Kantar revealed that Tesco and Sainsbury’s rose 6% and 6.2% in the Christmas quarter. However, reported volumes were lower meaning investors will be looking to the trading updates for clarity on profitability. Current guidance out of UK retailer Next, which is often vie...

# According to Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the Governing Council, the European Central Bank should finish raising interest rates "by the summer" and then be prepared to maintain them for an extended length of time to control the inflation rate, which is still too high. The head of the Bank of France claims that it is too early to forecast rates' peaks because the arrival of new data will determine how much they rise in the coming months. He stated that the ECB should conduct the second phase of tightening in the direction of "monetary stabilization" after having just lowered the deposit rate to 2%, a level that is seen to be close to the so-called neutral level, which does not stimulate or restrain the economy. When addressing representatives of the financial industry in Paris on Thursday, Villeroy declared, "Then we will be willing to continue at this marginal rate for as long as it takes. In 2022, a sprint with increased speed will resemb...

# The Japanese yen is sharply lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 133.90 down 0.93%. What a difference a few days can make. The yen was cruising on Tuesday, as it broke below the 130 level for the first time since May. Since then, the dollar has gone on a tear, pushing the yen close to the 134 line. The yen has been showing volatility since the last week of 2022, and it’s a sure bet that the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan, which dislike sharp movements by the yen, will be watching to see if the downtrend continues. In the US, the focus in the latter part of the week has been on employment data, with all eyes on Friday’s jobs report. On Wednesday, JOLTS Job Openings dipped slightly to 10.46 million, and the ISM employment index rose into expansion territory. This was followed by more positive data today – unemployment claims fell to 204,000, down from 223,000. As well, the ADP employment report rose to 225 thousand, up sharply from 12...

# Although the wave marking for the pound/dollar instrument now appears extremely complex, clarifications are not necessary. The five-wave upward trend segment has the form a-b-c-d-e, and may already be finished. British quotes continue to actively move away from the previously set highs, increasing the likelihood of finishing the rising trend section in that market. As a result, I can say that the downward part of the trend has started to take shape and will include at least three waves. In actuality, it can handle a five-wave pulse as well. The trend's previous segment was corrective, thus the following one may be anything. However, since only one downward wave has been formed thus far, the British pound should continue to fall. Naturally, the rising portion of the trend can continue for an indefinite amount of time and have any duration. However, because it is not a typical scenario, it can be challenging to predict. I continue to attempt to expand upon the conventional wave st...

# EUR/USD Minor Growth! The EUR/USD pair registered a strong drop today. 1.0527 is seen as a downside obstacle. The rate tried to increase after reaching this level and it was almost to hit the 1.0579 upside obstacle (the downside obstacle turned into an upside obstacle). Technically, after dropping below the uptrend line, the rate signaled exhausted buyers and announced a new downside movement. EUR/USD Forecast! Dropping below today's low of 1.0527 could announce more declines. This is seen as a selling opportunity. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Black lines- support trend lines Green line -resistance (broken) EURUSD is trading around 1.0680 after breaking last week above the short-term resistance 1.0660. Price back tested the break out level and has now started making higher highs and higher lows in the 4 hour chart. Short-term support is at 1.0660 where previously resistance was. Price has the potential to continue higher as long as we stay above 1.0660-1.0650. Key support remains at 1.0570. A break below 1.0650 would be a bearish sign, but the confirmation will come with a break below 1.0570. Until then bulls are in control. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# The gold market has steadily weathered the end of 2022, and according to one research firm, its momentum in the fourth-quarter should continue into 2023. In their 2023 outlook, BCA analysts said gold prices will surpass $1,900 an ounce next year. The positive outlook comes as the firm began building a bullish position in November. The research firm is bullish about gold as they expect a peak in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, persistently high inflation and global economic uncertainty to support prices in the new year. "The evolution of gold prices next year will hinge on Fed monetary policy and its impact on the USD's trajectory," the analysts said in the report. "Given a backdrop of elevated uncertainty next year and a dovish Fed, which will weaken the USD, safe-haven demand for gold will rise." Markets currently expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates to a peak between 5.00% and 5.25% in the first half of the year. BCA said tha...