Stuart's FX analysis

# The USD/CHF pair climbed as high as 0.9620 today where it has found resistance. Now, it is trading at 0.9585 at the time of writing. Unfortunately, the price action failed to confirm the breakout through the downtrend line signaling that the bearish bias remains intact. In the short term, the pair rebounded only because the Dollar Index bounced back. Today, Switzerland's economic data came in mixed. The GDP rose by 0.5% beating the 0.3% estimates, Retail Sales reported a 6.0% drop versus 1.4% forecasted, while the Trade Balance came in at 4.13B versus 3.50B expected. Surprisingly or not, the USD/CHF pair is trading in the red even though the US CB Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, and the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI came in better than expected. Only the HPI reported worse than expected data after reporting only a 1.2% growth versus 2.0% expected. USD/CHF Breakout! You knew from my last analysis that the USD/CHF pair could resume its drop as long as it stays under the downtr...

# The DXY has enjoyed what can only be described as a parabolic move up since last summer’s lows, where it reached just below the 90 levels. Since then, we’ve seen an ever more hawkish Fed, the raising of rates, and now we await the scheduled commencement of quantitative tightening this month. US dollar strength has been a direct result of investors anticipating a general withdrawal of liquidity. Remember, the US dollar is a major recipient of all the risk-off activity when investors sell tech or crypto with the expectation of lower lows for the foreseeable future in these high-risk assets. And that is exactly what has unfolded so far this year. The S&P 500 is down around 20% from its highs, and the broader crypto market is down around 60%. Naturally, with these markets so oversold, the calls for a top in the US dollar and a bottom for risk assets are getting louder. This is particularly true since investors have been overwhelmingly one-sided in their bearish risk-off bets for t...

# USDCAD cracks back below its 200 day moving average The USDCAD moved below the 100 and 200 day MAs in the holiday like trading on Monday. The 100 day MA currently comes in at 1.26949. The 200 day moving average comes in at 1.26596. The price yesterday closed at 1.26533 just below the lower 200 day moving average. In trading today, the price moved back above the 200 day moving average in the Asian session, and worked up to a high at 1.2686. That was still below the 100 day moving average 1.26949, but trading between the moving averages gave a more neutral bias for traders.. The last few hours, however, have seen a rotation back to the downside and back below the 200 day moving average 1.26594. Bearish. Momentum has taken the price down to a new intraday low of 1.26313. The 200 day moving average will now be key resistance. Stay below and the bears remain in control from the short and longer term prospective. Move back above and traders will re-target the 100 day moving average (...

# GBPUSD trade between its 100 and 200 hour moving averages The GBPUSD has seen momentum dip to the downside in early New York trading, helped by the break through the 100 hour moving average. That moving average currently comes in at 1.26055. The level represents a risk defining level for sellers who are looking for more downside in the short-term. Stay below keeps the sellers happy. Having said that, the run to the downside stalled right at its 200 hour moving average currently at 1.25591 (and moving higher). Holding that level gives those traders who are more bullish some comfort. So there is a little something for both buyers and sellers from a technical perspective today. Traders who like the upside can lean against the 200 hour moving average at 1.2559 as a risk defining level. A move below would be needed to increase the bearish bias. Conversely, sellers who think the run to the upside has run its course in the GBPUSD, could use the 100 hour moving average as resistance and...

# USDJPY is pushing toward the 50% midpoint of the May range The USDJPY is moving to a new session high in early New York trading as yields move higher. The 10 year yield moved up to 2.875%. It currently trades at 2.86%. The 30 year yield rose to 3.07%. It is currently at 3.060%. Looking at the hourly chart, the price rise in the Asian session today did extend above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May high at 128.256. However that break was short-lived and the price rotated back to the downside into the early European session (see hourly chart above). However over the last 5 or 6 hours, the price has moved back above the 38.2% retracement with more momentum and extended up to a high price of 128.722. That has taken the price into a swing area between 128.60 and 128.738. Move above that area and the next upside target comes against the 50% midpoint of the move down from the May high at 128.845. Traders may look to lean against that midpoint level on the 1st test, wi...

# Earlier, I asked you to pay attention to the level of 1.2624 to decide when to enter the market. Let us take a look at the 5-minute chart to clear up the market situation. A decline and a false break of 1.2624 were quite expectable amid the absence of important macroeconomic data. As a result, traders got a perfect buy signal, which allowed the pair to climb by 30 pips. If you missed the first signal, you could have benefited from the second decline and a false break of 1.2624. From the technical point of view, the situation remained the same. Conditions for opening long positions on GBP/USD: Buyers are pushing the pound sterling to the upper limit of the triangle. The pair's direction depends on the break of this limit. The absence of macroeconomic reports and a federal holiday in the US may seriously affect the market volatility in the second part of the day. That is why I suppose that the British pound will hardly break the upper limit of the triangle and will enter a sidewa...

# Major stock indices in Asia posted an increase of 0.6-2.2%. The Chinese Shanghai Composite showed the lowest growth of only 0.6%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced by as much as 2.19%. Other indices of the region posted gains within this range: China's Shenzhen Composite rose by 1.07%, Korea's KOSPI added 1.2%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 advanced by 1.45%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index increased by 2.08%. Investors' positive sentiment was mainly supported by a 1.8-3.3% rise in the US stock market. Over the past week, stocks have increased by 6% after declining for several months in a row. In addition, the Chinese authorities expect a swift recovery after the recent COVID-19 outbreak. Lockdown measures have already been eased in some regions. Thus, in Shanghai, city officials have announced an action plan consisting of 50 policy measures to boost the economy. They include state subsidies and tax incentives for business owners who were most affected by th...

# Gold is trading at 1,855 at the time of writing and it seems very heavy as the Dollar Index is trading in the green at 101.56 above 101.35 today's low. DXY's rebound could help the USD to appreciate, that's why the yellow metal could slip lower. The FOMC Member Waller's speech could bring some volatility later today. XAU/USD is still bullish after poor US economic data was reported last week. Tomorrow, the fundamentals will drive the price of Gold. XAU/USD Trading In The Red! In the short term, XAU/USD is trapped between the 1,862 and 1,841 levels. As long as it stays under the 1,862 range's resistance, the yellow metal could come back down and it could activate a larger sell-off. Only a valid breakout above 1,862 and a new higher high could activate more gains and could invalidate the downside scenario. Gold Outlook! 1,862 stands as immediate resistance, while 1,853 represents near-term support. Registering a valid breakout through one of these levels may ...

# The euro/dollar pair is testing the resistance level of 1.0760 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the four-hour chart), after overcoming which traders will move to the next price barrier - the 1.0800 mark (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart). The current price increase is due to both the weakening of the dollar and the general strengthening of the single currency. Renewed risk appetite, a strong inflation report from Germany, and the preliminary results of the EU summit (in the context of the sanctions confrontation with the Russian Federation) - all these fundamental factors helped buyers of EUR/USD to test the above price threshold. The US currency was forced to retreat - there are no relevant arguments for the resumption of the southern trend. The market has already included a planned tightening of monetary policy (a 50-point rate hike in June and July) in current prices, while further prospects look vague, especially after the publication of...

# As of this writing, AUD/USD is trading near 0.7190, up 32 pips from last week's closing price. The pair maintains positive momentum, tending towards key resistance levels 0.7240 (144 EMA on the daily chart), and 0.7270 (200 EMA on the daily chart). Trading below these key resistance levels, AUD/USD remains in the bear market zone. Therefore, the breakdown of the important support level 0.7165 (50 EMA on the daily chart) will be the first signal for the resumption of short positions, and the breakdown of the important short-term support levels 0.7128 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 0.7085 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) will be confirming. In this case, AUD/USD will head deeper into the descending channels on the daily and weekly charts, the lower limit of which is near the 0.6800 mark. In the alternative scenario, AUD/USD will continue corrective growth towards the resistance levels of 0.7240, 0.7270. Further growth and breakout of the key resistance level 0.7310 (200 EMA on t...

# During the European trading session on Friday, oil began to decline in price as part of a correction after the price rose for two days in a row. At one point on the New York Mercantile Exchange, July futures for WTI oil lost 0.13% and traded at $113.86 per barrel. Futures for Brent crude for August delivery by this time fell in price by 0.01% to $114.16 per barrel. The rise in the cost of oil, which we have seen in recent days, was triggered by several factors. Firstly, this is the release of statistics on the decline in commercial oil reserves in the US for the last trading week (until May 20), which showed that oil reserves have fallen significantly, namely by 1 million barrels. By the way, experts expected a decline, but not so significant - only 0.7 million barrels. Secondly, prices were pushed up a lot by the fears of bidders that a shortage of raw materials is forming on the global market. These fears are not groundless, because some states and enterprises are already signi...

# Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency) : BTC/USD - Bitcoin US Dollar : Bitcoin is likely to reach $29k before June, 2021, but the bulls must break through $29,153 in order to resume the up trend. Our dedicated contributors expect a modestly bullish outlook, forecasting price stability after this week's clear rally. The average outlook for the pair was trading above the area of $28k - $29k. BTC/USD relatively pushes in an uptrend around the recent upper range-line at the price of $29,153 (last bullish wave). Last week, BTC/USD declines after failing to break the resistance level at 29,153 (top price). Following the redemanding of the $28,783 support and the clearing of the $29,153 first resistance, BTC/USD price rallied to the psychological price level of $29,153. The upward move could not be sustained as Bitcoin faces rejection. Bitcoin price is retracing and may find support above $38,219. On the upside, if the bulls have broken the resistance level ($29,153), the upside momentum wou...

# In our previous EURUSD forecast, we discussed EUR/USD price reaching higher levels, such as, $1.06400, which was a high reached on its last bullish attempt last Monday, forming a 144 pips large candle. It was a sharp move that took the price outside the downtrend channel and above two resistance levels: $1.05825 and $1.06736, both confluences of resistance. After breaking above resistance levels, the price slid down to $1.06736 and verified that level as a support. From there, the price was able to maintain higher levels. The week ended on the upper level of daily candles with Friday's wick above all previous candles. That means the price has tested higher levels and was not pushed down as a sign of bullish strength. The currency strength meter reflects EUR as a much stronger currency than USD, which is also confirming the bulls' strength. Currency strength meter EUR/USD price is above the $1.06736 support level and a little below the next resistance level at $1.07...

# The EUR/USD pair was correcting lower on Friday after posting its highest level in a month at 1.0765 during the European session. The euro failed to sustain the bullish momentum above the 1.0750 resistance area and it was trading around 1.0710-20. Still, the shared currency was poised to record a 1.4% weekly gain, the second in a row, extending its bounce from the five-year low of 1.0348 struck on May 9. On Friday, U.S. data showed that the Core PCE Price Index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation—rose by 4.9% in May (annualized), easing down from the 5.2% rate printed in April. This could be a sign that inflation is close to peak (or even might have already done so). Earlier this week, the Fed published the minutes of its May meeting, which showed FOMC members bracing for two more 50 bps rate hikes. But, if inflation proves to be slowing down, the bank might take a more gradual approach to avoid taking an unnecessary toll on growth. On Thursday, U.S. GDP figures s...

# The Euro has been on a tear against the US Dollar over the past two weeks. EUR/USD has climbed 1.6% over that time period, the strongest performance over the course of two weeks since late January. You do not have to look far to understand what is going on here. On the chart below, EUR/USD has been rising as German front-end government bond yields have been outperforming their Treasury equivalent. In fact, the US Dollar has been broadly on the decline over the past two weeks. This has been increasingly associated with more cautious commentary from the Federal Reserve regarding the path forward for interest rates. We have seen the markets price out most of the anticipated tightening in 2023. Odds of a 50-basis point hike in September have been dwindling amid more cautious commentary from the Fed. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has been doing the opposite of the Fed. This past week, ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said that the central bank should not rule out half-...

# Most Read: Gold, Silver Price Forecast - XAU/USD, XAG/USD May Rise as Retail Traders Sell Gold prices (XAU/USD) have bounced moderately during the second half of this month, but are still down more than 10% from the March high. Over the last several weeks, the geopolitical premium built into the metal in the wake of the Ukraine invasion has begun to unwind, with traders becoming increasingly less sensitive to war headlines. Another bearish catalyst, in the grand scheme of things, has been the movement in real yields. For example, the 10-year TIPS has climbed from -0.5% in early April to a multi-year high near 0.30% on May 11th, before settling around 0.10% heading into this month’s close. Although a further advance in real yields will undermine gold, it is possible that they have topped out for now as nominal rates continue to soften on account of weakening U.S. economic activity. Recent data has shown that the world’s largest economy is cooling rapidly, raising fears of a hard la...

# The Canadian Dollar has fared considerably better than other commodity-linked currencies so far this year, despite a sour market mood. The so-called Loonie is tracking second only to its US counterpart among the G10 FX currencies, pulling ahead of the similarly sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Elevated crude oil prices might be a tempting explanation for this outperformance. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted critical supply routes and sent energy costs higher, driving windfall capital into the hands of top exporters, including in Canada. The similarly oil-linked Norwegian Krone lagged vastly behind, however. CAD up against AUD, NZD and NOK year-to-date (weekly chart) Chart crated with TradingView CAD resilience would nevertheless be tested amid an upswell of worries about on-coming recession in recent weeks. Economists marked down global GDP forecasts for 2023, several large companies like Target and Walmart issued spooky guidance, and traders marked dow...

# Overview: The GBP/USD pair is going to continue to rise from the level of 1.2592 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.2592 which represents the 78% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.2635. Additionally, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. So, buy above the level of 1.2635 with the first target at 1.2666 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.2713. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.2759 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair b...

# Early in the American session, the price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading at 29,183, recovering from the fall of May 26 that was as deep as 27,910. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see a downtrend channel formed since May 23. Besides, Bitcoin is trading below the 21 SMA which has become a strong resistance in the short term. If Bitcoin manages to break 21 SMA and the top of the bearish channel in the next few hours and consolidates above 29,300, it would mean a bullish advance so that the price could reach the top of the range around 2/8 Murray at 31,250. Conversely, as long as BTC trades below the 21 SMA at 29,200, we should avoid buying as it is likely to drop to the zone 1/8 Murray again around 28,125. On the other hand, in the event that Bitcoin breaks out of the range zone formed on May 12 and consolidates above 2/8 Murray, the bullish force could accelerate and BTC could reach 200 EMA at 32,700 and even 3/8 Murray at 34,375. Our trading plan for the next few hours is ...

# Hi, dear traders! On Thursday, EUR/USD continued to move upwards and closed above the retracement level of 127.2% (1.0705). However, the pair reversed downwards on Friday and fell to the bottom boundary of the trend channel. The ascending trend channel indicates bullish sentiments among traders. If EUR/USD settles below this channel, it could then fall towards the retracement level of 161.8% (1.0574). Over the past 2 weeks, the euro's situation has markedly improved. EUR/USD closed in positive territory almost every day. However, the recent upturn is very likely only a correction - these gains do not match economic reports. The daily chart shows that EUR has retraced upwards after a long downtrend. From time to time, these upward corrections are supported by data releases. Earlier, the euro ignored positive data during its downward trend of the past two months. Currently, the downturn could resume in the near future. Alternatively, the pair could enter a sideways trend. The rhe...

# Key European indices went up 0.56-1.78%. The STOXX Europe 600 index showed modest gains, adding only 0.3%. Other indices rose rapidly: the German DAX increased by 1.59%, the French CAC 40 was up 1.78%. The British FTSE 100 slightly climbed by 0.56%. The Italian FTSE MIB rose by 1.22% and the Spanish IBEX 35 added 1.47%. At the same time, the Spanish indicator hit a record high for a year and a half. Investors' positive sentiment was caused mainly by the increase in the US stock indices, which added 2-3%. Oil prices also rose by 3-4%, while the euro appreciated against the dollar. Experts attributed the rise in US indicators to the publication of the Fed's minutes in May. The market participants were given signals to tighten the US monetary policy at a more moderate rather than aggressive pace. After the benchmark interest rate is raised by 50 points, the US regulator will first analyze the economic situation and its possible consequences. Then it will make a decision on a...

# On Thursday, bitcoin dived to $28,900 and eventually closed at $29,117. At the time of writing on Friday, BTC fell to $28,982. Since Monday, bitcoin has tried to break out of the 7-week long downtrend, but remained near the $30,000 mark. The leading cryptocurrency lost about 60% since it surpassed $69,000 and reached an all-time high in November 2021. Crypto market lossesOver the past 24 hours, BTC lost about 2%. Howevre, major altcoins suffered more severe losses. STEPN's native token nosedived by 37.9% after its developer halted its services in China due to a demand from local authorities. STEPN is a move-to-earn lifestyle app which uses GPS and allows users to earn rewards in crypto by running, walking, or jogging outside. The company will stop providing GPS services to users in mainland China from July 15. Solana fell by 7.15% to $45. The altcoin lost more than 17% last week. Among other cryptocurrencies, Ethereum decreased by 6.16% to $1,847, BNB slumped by 5.03% to $311...

# US stocks are rallying as investors viewed both the Fed’s Minutes as a commitment to only gradual tighten policy to fight inflation and after a few retailers provided optimistic outlooks.  The Fed locked itself into delivering a couple of half-point rate increases until the Jackson Hole Symposium and that has removed the risk of aggressive tightening in the short term.  For some traders, having a strong idea on when the Fed will end its hiking cycle is the key for giving everyone the greenlight to buy equities and that could happen at the end of the summer. The last several trading sessions saw stock market weakness driven by downbeat outlooks by Target, Walmart and Snapchat, but today that temporarily changed.  Macy’s, William Sonoma, and Dollar General gave reason to be a little bit optimistic about the US consumer. Macy’s raised their full-year EPS guidance and noted that they continued to see strong sales in luxury goods items. Williams Sonoma noted that this yea...

# Gold (XAU/USD) is extending the pullback from the highs of 1,870, while the US dollar is holding on to small recovery gains amid an environment of cautious risk. The US dollar index is trading at 101.94. The convergence of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on the 4-hour chart located at 1,851 and the 21 SMA at 1,854.90 are the immediate barrier. On the 4-hour chart, we can see the formation of a symmetrical triangle. A sharp break above this triangle could cement the bullish strength of gold, but for this, it should consolidate above the pivot point of 1,854. On the other hand, a break below the Fibonacci 38.2% around 1,838 could accelerate the bearish move and it could drop towards the Fibonacci 61.8% around 1,820. The 61.8% Fibonacci level will be a good opportunity for the bulls to buy in the short term and the price could reach the zone of 1,875 and even 1,910. On the other hand, if gold manages to consolidate and make a daily close above the 21 SMA located at 1,854, it may c...

# Stock Asia showed mainly a fall to 1%. However, some indicators showed an increase: Shanghai Composite by 0.68%, and Shenzhen Composite - by 0.79%. Other indicators declined: Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index - by 0.41%, Korea's Hang Seng Index - by 0.13%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 - by 0.51%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 - by 0.9%. Investors are concerned about a possible further interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. Recall that at the May meeting, the base rate was increased by 50 points, to the level of 0.75-1%. However, this decision did not come as a surprise to market participants, as this was the forecast presented by analysts. Most of the participants in the meeting are ready to further raise rates by another 50 points during the next meetings. Many market participants believe that such a sharp tightening of monetary policy may lead to a slowdown in the pace of economic recovery and growth. Other reasons for investors' pessimism are still the conflict be...

# According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the British yesterday and resumed the growth process, ending up at the level of 1.2600, from which it twice rebounded a day earlier. At the time of writing, the pair has already completed three rebounds from this level and is currently making a new attempt to close higher. I believe that this level will not withstand the pressure of bull traders. Each time the pair retreated from the specified level by no more than 100 points, which means that the mood of traders remains unchanged. Quotes have left the upward trend corridor, but they continue to grow. The mood of traders can still be characterized as "bullish". There was not a single piece of news worth attention in the UK today. Around this time, the US releases a report on GDP in the first quarter. This is not the first report on the first quarter, as in the US, three estimates are published for each quarter. Already the first assessment cle...

# Hi, dear traders! EUR/USD reversed upwards on Wednesday and has extended its uptrend on Thursday. At the time of writing, the pair returned to the retracement level of 127.2% (1.0705), but failed to settle above it. The current ascending channel indicates that traders remain bullish on EUR/USD. However, the latest economic events have been mixed and could not have triggered the pair's 400 points increase. The PPI data releases in both the US and the EU, as well as US durable goods orders generally do not influence traders significantly. The pair's upwards reversal is very likely a typical upward correction after a lengthy downtrend period of the past few months. The situation in Ukraine has not improved, and the euro's long-term downtrend could resume once again. According to the H4 chart, the pair bounced off the retracement level of 100.0% (1.0638) upwards, forming a bullish CCI divergence. EUR/USD has begun to move towards the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1041). However, t...

# Stock markets are a little flat on Wednesday as investors await minutes from the May FOMC meeting. I’m not sure what exactly investors are holding out for. A lot has changed in the markets over the last few weeks and we’ve had a lot of Fed commentary in that time that is arguably more relevant than almost anything we can take from the minutes. That said, this is nothing new and investors are always wary of what could happen. Especially when market conditions are as volatile and uncertain as they are. There is no shortage of anxiety in the markets and the minutes could potentially feed into that. We’ve seen interest rate expectations pare back a little in recent weeks as economic fears have become more prominent. The central bank still expects to avoid a recession, which may be referenced in the minutes, but investors are becoming less confident as the cost of living squeezes household budgets. ECB seemingly united on July and September hikes We’ve heard from numerous ECB policy...

# USDJPY tests the 100 hour MA The USDJPY has moved up to test a swing area between 127.33 and 127.434. The price is also moving up toward the falling 100 hour moving average at 127.50. The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the corrective low from March 31 is also near that area at 127.508. Lots of key resistance between 127.33 and 127.508 if the sellers are to remain in control. Recall from yesterday's trade, the Asian session high moved up to test the 100 hour moving average and found willing sellers. Back on last Thursday, the price also corrected toward the 100 hour moving average only to find sellers early against that level. With the moving average lower, the hurdle is easier. However, until the price moves above, the sellers remain in play and in more control. Sellers will lean against the moving average with stops on a break above. On the downside, the move higher today was able to move back above a swing area between 126.93 and 127.008. A move back below that area...

# Early in the American session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around the 21 SMA located at 1,854. After having reached a high in the zone 1,869.55, gold is pulling back and is likely to continue its downtrend and could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Gold has a strong barrier at 6/8 Murray (1,875), where the 200 EMA is additionally located. If the price trades back above 1,856 or around this level, it will act as a strong top. If the Fed minutes are followed by a positive market reaction, traders should watch for gold to retest the zone 5/8 Murray at 1,812. The US dollar (USDX) has reversed some of the losses when it hit 101.63. This, in turn, has been considered a key factor weighing on gold prices. According to the 4-hour chart, gold is at a key point of 1,855. If gold consolidates below this level in the next few hours, it is likely to continue its downward movement and could reach the 38.2% Fibonacci level at around 1,840. In case the downward pressure prevails, the metal could ...