Stuart's FX analysis

AUD/USD For four days of decline, the Australian dollar has come a short way from the Fibonacci level of 23.6% on the daily chart to support the embedded line of the red price channel on a monthly scale (0.6710). The market’s first attempt to overcome this support was on August 7, but it was on an exhausted two-week movement, the second attempt was on August 26, now the third attempt, which is 80% statistically successful. The Marlin oscillator on the daily low is falling slightly, there is a reserve for medium-term decline. The first goal is to support the blue price channel in the region of 0.6650. On a four-hour chart, the price falls below the lines of balance (red indicator) and MACD (blue indicator), the Marlin decreases after a reversal from the boundary with the growth territory. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Forecast for AUD/USD on August 30, 2019

The pound reacted rather restrainedly to the news that the Queen of England supported the request of Boris Johnson to temporarily suspend the work of the House of Commons. The reaction of ordinary British and many deputies is too violent - and this fact allows traders to hope that the prime minister’s political maneuvers will force politicians to rally. Theoretically, parliamentarians can manage to realize their intentions. To do this, they have a few days, during which they must make crucial decisions for the country. However, Johnson also has his Trump cards, which he can very skillfully use. Thus, the “great confrontation” between the head of government and the House of Commons will begin in just a few days, and the outcome of this battle is quite difficult to predict. The so-called “queen’s move” is necessary for Boris Johnson only for one thing: to deprive parliamentary deputies of temporary space for making appropriate decisions. The parliamentarians will hold their first sessi...

4-hour timeframe Technical data: The upper channel of linear regression: direction-down. The lower channel of linear regression: direction-down. The moving average (20; smoothed) – down. CCI: -150.3038 The last trading day of the week and month, the EUR/USD currency pair starts in the usual way – with a systematic decline. Last night, the lows of last week were updated, and no more than 20 points remain to pass to two-year lows. Thus, we expect the pair to decline further today, but volatility is likely to remain at a low level, as there are few important macroeconomic reports and reports from the eurozone and the States. Yesterday, inflation for Germany in August was published (preliminary value) and we assumed that inflation in the EU would also be worse than expected. The forecast value is 1.0% y/y in August. Thus, any value below 1.0% will confirm our concerns. If European inflation slows even more (than it has already slowed in the last 3-4 months), then traders are unlikel...

Technical outlook: The EUR/USD pair continues to drift lower as expected with 1.1043 as an interim low. We have shown the 4H chart view with the recent boundary that is being worked upon, with Fibonacci resistances placed across. As seen here, the resistance starts from 1.1088 and spreads through 1.1140 levels. Immediate price resistance is now seen at 1.1165 and fresh lows can be expected until prices stay below that. Also note that the resistance trend line is being meticulously followed with the latest bearish bounce at 1.1165 levels. Any push beyond the resistance trend line would also be encouraging to bulls. Most traders might have booked profits on short positions taken earlier and if not, then it is advisable to take profit from short positions and remain flat. The next potential short entry could be seen towards 1.1120 levels which is converging with resistance trend line and Fibonacci 0.618 as well. The euro is expected to print lows below 1.1020 in the near term before rev...

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need: Tensions over the Brexit situation and the suspension of the UK Parliament continue to put pressure on the pound, however, the bears are in no hurry to return to the market, which leaves buyers with a chance to continue growth. To do this, you need to return to the level of 1.2200 today and gain a foothold there, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the area of important resistance at 1.2250, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears continue to pull down the pound, I recommend to open long positions immediately on the rebound from the major support of 1.2145, or from a low of 1.2107. However, an update of 1.2107 will indicate a complete turnaround of the upward trend, so strong growth from this range can hardly be expected. To open short positions on GBP/USD you need: The main task of the pound sellers is to maintain the level of 1.2200, and the formation of a false breakdown on it in the first half of the day will be a d...

To open long positions on EURUSD you need: Buyers continue to stand aside and monitor how the euro is declining amid weak reports on the German economy and the eurozone as a whole. Today in the morning, the focus will be on data on inflation in the eurozone and the unemployment rate. A reduction in consumer price growth will hit the euro, but the decline will not be protracted, as major players will begin to take profits at the end of the month. Therefore, I am waiting for the support update of 1.1028 and when forming a false breakdown there, I recommend opening long positions. Otherwise, you can buy for a rebound from a low of 1.0990. The main task of the bulls will be to return to the resistance of 1.1055, consolidating on which will lead to the formation of a rising wave with the update of the resistance of 1.1087, where I recommend taking profits. To open short positions on EURUSD you need: Bears got to monthly lows yesterday and updated them. While trading is below the resistan...

GBP/USD On Thursday, after the price touched the Fibonacci level of 223.6%, the pound fell and lost 28 points. On the daily chart, the price has consolidated below the trend line of the price channel, approaching the Fibonacci level of 238.2% (1.2154). Leaving the price below the level opens the target of 261.8% Fibonacci at the price of 1.2032. Behind it, the level of 271.0% at the price of 1.1986, and in the area of coincidence with the line of the price channel. On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the indicator lines of balance and MACD, Marlin is in negative territory, we are waiting for the implementation of the declining scenario. This development can be helped by today’s data on the US, where personal incomes of consumers for July is expected to grow by 0.3%, personal expenses by 0.5%, business activity index in the manufacturing sector of the Chicago region for August is forecasted to grow from 44.4 to 48.1. The material has been provided by InstaForex Com...

Let me bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of the options for the movement of currency instruments #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY from August 30, 2019 Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame) ____________________ US dollar index The direction of the range breakdown : resistance level of 98.35 (control line UTL pitchfork Minuette operational scale fork); support level of 98.10 (the upper boundary of the ½ Median Line channel Minuette operational scale fork); will determine the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX from August 30, 2019. The breakdown of the support level of 98.10 will determine the development of the movement of the dollar index within ½ Median Line channels of the Minuette operational scale - (98.10 - 97.80 - 97.45) and Minuette (97.70 - 97.50 - 97.30). The upward movement of #USDX can be continued with the combined breakdown of the UTL control line (resistance level of 98.35) and the initial SSL line (98.40) of the M...

Forecast for August 30: Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1: For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1110, 1.1082, 1.1066, 1.1040, 1.1022, 1.0996 and 1.0979. Here, we continue to monitor the descending structure of August 26. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1040 - 1.1022. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.0996. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0979. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1066 - 1.1082. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1110. This level is a key support for the downward structure. The main trend is the downward cycle of August 26. Trading recommendations: Buy 1.1066 Take profit: 1.1080 Buy 1.1084 Take profit: 1.1110 Sell: 1.1040 Take profit: 1.1024 Se...

Japanese trap sellers Trading idea for the USDJPY Dear traders, please pay attention to the instrument, which has undeservedly forgotten recently. Everyone knows that the yen often acts as a funding currency, and during periods of crisis, turmoil, and political uncertainties, investors are very pleased to “sit out” in the yen. Thus, it happened this time. Trade wars and exchange of duties led to the strengthening of the Japanese currency against the dollar, and since the spring of this year, we have seen a good short-term trend for USDJPY. However, this instrument is moving not only because of the strength of the yen, but also because of weak demand for the dollars in general. So, judging by the slowdown in the dynamics of MEGA-overbought gold, a wave of strengthening of the dollar is coming, which will lead to an upward trend in USDJPY as well as earning good money from it. The technical picture In August, the yen updated last year’s minimum of 105 and rebounded - exposing a fal...

Gold is going upwards by leaps and bounds, leaving the “corpses” of traders behind who want to average their short positions on an unprecedented bullish trend. Thus, gold absorbs absolutely all the sales that speculators offer it, which is normal in these conditions. Imagine yourself as an investor today. How to keep your currency assets? In the euro - with uncertainty in the eurozone and Merkel leaving? In pounds - with Boris Johnson? Or in gold, as banks do it? At the time of geopolitical and trade uncertainties - the answer is obvious. Since the spring of this year, gold has passed an incredible 27,000 points, as well as another 15,000 p over the past six months. This is practically without significant pullbacks. However, the last movement of quotes 1535 given to gold is not easy. And on D1, the mirror level on it is obvious. As usual, everyone who bought above will first of all hide their risks there, while below is the hourly TF with the most likely levels that will be captured ...

The fall of the GBP/USD pair to weekly lows has become perhaps one of the most interesting events in the foreign exchange market in recent days. Another attack on the weakness of the pound was provoked by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson. The head of government asked the Queen of England to suspend the work of the British Parliament from September 9 to October 14, and she granted his request. Thus, lawmakers can only prevent Great Britain’s exit from the European Union during the period from September 3 to 9, and also from October 14 to 31. According to analysts, the fact that the pound quickly lost ground previously won indicates that B. Johnson remains at least one step ahead of his opponents. So, the British prime minister made his move, what will follow next and how does this affect the dynamics of the pound? 1. Since the beginning of the Parliament, that is, from September 3, it is worth waiting for a vote of no confidence in B. Johnson and a slight but...

For the second time in the past two months, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the United States is not going to interfere with forex, but things could change in the future. BofA Merrill Lynch analysts believe that this can happen if the EUR/USD pair drops to the level of 1.05-1.07, while Citigroup analysts expect intervention near the 1.05 mark. “The risk of one-sided US currency intervention will not go away so easily,” said Keith J., Societe Generale currency strategist. He estimates the probability of intervention at 25% and recommends that investors buy the Canadian dollar if this threat becomes real. According to the analyst, the Canadian currency is underestimated and has fewer shortcomings than most others amid the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing. Standard Chartered Bank’s Steven Englander believes traders should buy the euro to benefit from any intervention. “If the United States wants to weaken the greenback, the only effective way to do this is to bu...

The single European currency steadily fell for three consecutive days. This is largely due to the general situation, which lies in the clear intention of the European Central Bank to find new ways to mitigate its monetary policy. At the same time, the Federal Reserve almost directly tells investors that there is no reason to lower the refinancing rate. Moreover, the banal disparity in interest rates also favors the dollar’s growth. Like it or not, but the rate is 0.00% in Europe, and it is 2.25% in the United States. Well, this means that the yield on US government debt securities is significantly higher than in Europe. So it is not surprising that investors prefer the dollar rather than the single European currency. However, this fascinating process is not so monotonous, and from time to time there are jumps in one direction or the other on the market, which at least temporarily brings some kind of variety to the life of traders. Today there is a turn of deviations from the given sc...

On Wednesday, the pair began to move down after being pushed off the resistance line last Tuesday. Moving down, the pair tested a strong pullback level of 50.0% - 1.2163 (blue dotted line), but could not break it down. Strong calendar news is expected at 12.30 Universal time and 14.00 Universal time (dollar). Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, the price may continue to move down, with the target of 1.2156 - the lower fractal. In case of breaking through this level, going further down to the pullback level of 61.8% - 1.2127 (blue dashed line) is possible. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: - indicator analysis - down; - Fibonacci levels - down; - volumes - down; - candlestick analysis - down; - trend analysis - down; - Bollinger Lines - down; - weekly schedule - down. General conclusion: On Thursday, the price may continue to move down. An unlikely scenario is an upward movement to the resistance line 1.2288 (red bold line). The material has been provided b...

To open long positions on GBP/USD is required: The British pound tried to regain its position against the US dollar, after a major sell-off, which was associated with the British prime minister’s statement about the possible suspension of Parliament. However, the bulls did not manage to go above the resistance of 1.2245, which I drew attention to in my yesterday’s review. At the moment, the main task of buyers is to break through this range, as only this will provide a new impetus to the bulls with the update of highs in the area of 1.2301 and 1.2343, where I recommend to take profits. If the pressure on the pound continues, which is likely, only the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2195 will allow buyers to return to the market. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions on the rebound from a low of 1.2158. To open short positions on GBP/USD is required: The main task of the pound sellers is to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.2195, which...

To open long positions on EURUSD you need: Yesterday, buyers missed the support of 1.1086, which coped with its function for almost three trading sessions. However, there was no major decline due to the lack of news. At the moment, it is best to open long positions after the release of a series of reports on the countries of the eurozone, ranging from consumer confidence and ending with inflation in Germany. Good news background will help the bulls regain the level of 1.1086, which will be the first signal to open long positions in the hope of updating the resistance of 1.1115, from which sellers will return to the market. However, a further target will still be a high of 1.1151, where I recommend taking profits. If eurozone reports put pressure on the euro, which is to be expected, then it is best to consider long positions after updating the low of the month in the region of 1.1055, or on the rebound from the new support of 1.1028. To open short positions on EURUSD you need: As lo...

On Wednesday, the price continued to move down. Moving down, the price tested a pullback level of 76.4% - 1.1079 (blue dashed line) and closed slightly higher - 1.1080. Today, strong calendar news is expected at 7.55 Universal time (euro), 12.30 Universal time and 14.00 Universal time (dollar). Also today, the downward movement may continue. Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, a downward movement with the target of 1.1063 is possible - the support line (blue bold line). There is a chance of breaking this line down, and then continue to the next target of 1.1053, which is the lower fractal. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: - indicator analysis - down; - Fibonacci levels - down; - volumes - down; - candlestick analysis - up; - trend analysis - down; - Bollinger Lines - down; - weekly schedule - down. General conclusion: On Thursday, a downward movement with the target of 1.1063 is possible - the support line (blue bold line). There is a chance of breaking thi...

Crypto Industry News: The Santiago Stock Exchange (STE), Central Securities Depository (DCV) and Global Trade Directory (GTD) announced the creation of a new Blockchain association. The company BNamericas informs that STE, DCV and GTD have created a consortium for creating Blockchain financial applications, which is reportedly the first of its kind in Latin America. The agreement provides for the creation of a Blockchain business network: infrastructure to connect public clients around the world via nodes that will provide access to various applications running on the Hyperledger platform. “Since 2017, we have been cooperating with other securities depositories around the world in the application of Blockchain to the services of our industry, to which is added a project that we are implementing with the central bank of Chile to include this technology in the issue of its financial instruments ”- says the Director-General of the Central Securities Depository, Fernando Yanez. After ...

Crypto Industry News: Hong Kong’s pro-democratic, anti-government protest movement is stimulating a wider adoption of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Financial portals report that political unrest in Hong Kong - which has just entered the 12th week - has prompted several local businesses and individuals to switch to non-sovereign and decentralized digital currencies. On August 26, Pricerite department store in Hong Kong announced that it would begin accepting Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum at its fourteen locations in Hong Kong. The store has indicated that it will be able to quickly convert crypto to Hong Kong dollars using the Bitcoin’s Lightning Network scalability layer. In addition to traditional retailers, the cryptocurrency company Genesis Block operates 14 cryptocurrency ATMs throughout the city. In July, Genesis Block - which it trades under the name “CoinHere” - distributed water to protesters who were paid for using international donations in Bitcoin Cash, as well as um...

Technical Market Overview: The GBP/USD pair has reversed down after hitting the level of 1.2308 which is located just below the 61% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2324. The Broadening Wedge price pattern might have been completed then because the price has broken below the technical support at the level of 1.2248 and 1.2175. The whole move up is still a part of the correction, because it does not look like the beginning of a new, impulsive trend. The pair is currently testing the nearest technical support located at the level of 1.2156 in overbought market conditions. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2616 WR2 - 1.2455 WR1 - 1.2395 Weekly Pivot Pont - 1.2226 WS1 - 1.2161 WS2 - 1.2001 WS3 - 1.1935 Trading Recommendations: The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.242...

Technical Market Overview: The EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the 61% of the Fibonacci retracement and the last lower low was made at the level of 1.1073. The bears are clearly in control of this market despite the low volatility conditions. The momentum returned to the neutral level and the market conditions are now coming off the overbought levels as well. Please keep an eye on the current developments as any move lower can change the market positioning for the next days. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.1293 WR2 - 1.1218 WR1 - 1.1193 Weekly Pivot Pont - 1.1119 WS1 - 1.1089 WS2 - 1.1014 WS3 - 1.0984 Trading Recommendations: The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indic...

The New Zealand dollar, paired with the US currency, continues to dive down to multi-year lows. At the moment, the pair is trading at the base of the 62nd figure and the last time the price was in this area was four years ago in the fall of 2015. Judging by the dynamics of decline, the NZD/USD pair can update the 4-year low at 0.6156, approaching the levels of a decade ago, when the pair was trading within the 50s. Such a rapid decline in prices is primarily due to the trade war between the United States and China. This is the cornerstone of all the problems of New Zealand as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand focuses on this fundamental factor. After the July interest rate cut by 50 basis points at once, the NZD/USD pair demonstrated a pronounced downward trend on the weekly chart, which sometimes pleases the bears with large-scale price pullbacks up to a 100-point correction. This allows sellers to open short positions at a better price, pushing the pair further into the price gap. Th...

Technical outlook: The 4H chart view has been presented for EURUSD to project the short term direction. Prices have slowly drifted lower after Monday opening at 1.1158. The single currency pair is seen to be trading at 1.1084 levels at this moment, and might rally towards 1.1120 levels during the day. Looking into the overall wave structure, prices have been carving lower lows and lower highs since 1.1412 levels with the recent high at 1.1250 levels which stays as a potential resistance for now. The EURO should ideally stay below 1.1158 level and drift lower toward fresh intermediary lows below 1.1020. With the sentiments at extreme bearish levels, it is better to be caution towards taking fresh shorts around current price. It is a safe strategy to keep booking profits on short positions while prices drift below 1.1020 levels. Trading plan: Book profits on shorts taken from last week. Remain flat after that. Good luck! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.in...

EUR/USD On Wednesday, the euro fell by 13 points, reaching an important technical level of 123.6% of the Fibonacci level of the basic movement from September 24-November 12, 2018, consolidation under which opens the way to a decline to the next level of 138.2%, to the area of 1.0980. Today in the Asian session, the price is slightly correcting upwards. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator remains in the negative zone. On the four-hour chart, theMarlin is also in the decline zone, the price is developing below the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the last of which creates resistance at a price of 1.1100. Consolidating the price above this level will allow the correction to increase, perhaps the price will fall into the range of 1.1164/80, formed on the daily scale by the line of the price channel and the MACD line. The lower limit of the range coincides with the peak on August 26. The predominant option for further development remains downward, that is, with the price consoli...

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian 10-y Bond Auction, German Unemployment Change, German Prelim CPI m/m, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, French Prelim GDP q/q, and French Consumer Spending m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, Goods Trade Balance, and Prelim GDP q/q, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY’S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1139. Strong Resistance: 1.1133. Original Resistance: 1.1122. Inner Sell Area: 1.1111. Target Inner Area: 1.1085. Inner Buy Area: 1.1059. Original Support: 1.1048. Strong Support: 1.1037. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1031. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, August 29, 2019

In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence and the US will publish some economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, Goods Trade Balance, and Prelim GDP q/q. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY’S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 106.50. Resistance. 2: 106.29. Resistance. 1: 106.08. Support. 1: 105.83. Support. 2: 105.62. Support. 3: 105.41. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, August 29,2019

GBP/USD The British pound at the time of yesterday’s fall was losing 133 points, reaching the first target of a 238.2% Fibonacci reaction. The Marlin Oscillator on the daily chart showed a reversal down. On the four-hour chart, the double divergence worked in all its splendor - the price attacked the support of the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator itself is completely in a downward position. Currently, the price is struggling with the support of the balance line (indicator red) and intends to gain a foothold below the MACD line. Success will lead to a repeated attack on the Fibonacci level of 238.2% of the daily scale, and consolidation below it opens up to 261.8% at the price of 1.2032 to the Fibonacci level. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Forecast for GBP/USD on August 29, 2019

USD / JPY pair The Japanese yen is consolidating for the third day after a sharp rise in prices on Monday. Previously, the price of the nearest resistance is in a downward line of the price channel at 106.33 as a result of the convergence on the Marlin oscillator. Above it, the resistance of the MACD line is at 106.77 on the daily chart. On a four-hour chart, the price winds up on the MACD line with the signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the trend growth zone. The consolidation range around 105.60-106.33 and overcoming the price of its lower boundary at August 27 low may trigger a fall to the lower line of the price channel to the area of 104.77. We tend to take the upward option as the main one, but as we noted in previous reviews, the growth of the pair will be difficult since there are a lot of technical resistances before the price. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Forecast for USD / JPY pair on August 29, 2019

Minuette operational scale (H4) Let me bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of the options for the development of the movement of AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX from August 29, 2019 through the Minuette operational scale (H4) ____________________ US dollar Index From August 29, 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range: resistance level of 98.35 (control line UTL Minuette operational scale fork); support level of 98.10 (upper boundary of the ½ Median Line Minuette channel). The breakdown of the support level of 98.10 - the development of the dollar index movement will continue within the boundaries of ½ Median Line channels of the Minuette operational scales fork - (98.10 - 97.75 - 97.45) and Minuette (97.75 - 97.55 - 97.32) with the prospect of reaching the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scales fork (96.95 - 96.55 - 95.10) and Minu...