Stuart's FX analysis

# NASDAQ index is up 1.0% The major U.S. stock indices are reaching new session highs, with each index on a three-day winning streak. The NASDAQ is leading the pack with an solid 1% gain. Here is a snapshot of the current market performance: Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up 228 points, or 0.70%, at 33,087.50 S&P 500 Index: Up 32.30 points, or 0.80%, at 4,083.07 NASDAQ Composite Index: Up 124.53 points, or 1.04%, at 12,138.97 Russell 2000 Index: Up 31.04 points, or 1.76%, at 1,799.41 As illustrated in the daily chart below, the NASDAQ Composite Index is pulling further away from its 61.8% retracement level at 11,999.84, which is calculated from the decline that began on August 16. The next significant milestone is the February 2 high of 12,269.55. That is also near the swing high going back to September 2022 increasing the levels important. So far this month, the NASDAQ has gained approximately 6%. For the training year, the index is up 15%. In 2022 the index fell -33.1...

# The last upward wave has caused more confusion with the wave analysis on the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar pair. Given that the previous descending segment can be viewed as having completed three waves, this wave may well represent the initial wave of a new upward trend segment, or it may simply be an internal wave of a more complicated sequence of falling waves. Everything appears to be creating a new upward trend segment so far, but the GBP/USD pair is also developing a simpler structure that anticipates another falling wave. It will therefore be very challenging to work on the wave pattern for the euro currency, which has the potential to become very complicated. The development of the third ascending wave, with targets at least near the 10th figure, can start from the current positions if the development of an upward set of waves has already started. It is now completely confusing, although there are still choices for wave analysis. Because the anticipated wave c turned out t...

# After breaking through the important short-term support levels 1.3715, 1.3680 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), 1.3630 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), USD/CAD is trying to develop a downward dynamic. Our hopes for a rebound from the levels of 1.3630, 1.3600 did not come true—not just yet. Still, we keep previously opened long positions on the pair, also keeping limiting stops below 1.3570 and counting on a pullback: the 1.3600 level is an important support level (50 EMA on the daily chart), and the medium-term and global trends still remain bullish. The signal for the resumption of long positions could be a return to the area above this level, and above 1.3630, we would place pending buy orders. Long positions remain preferable, despite the current downward correction. In an alternative scenario, and if the U.S. dollar gives a reason to do so, USD/CAD will continue to decline. In this case, and appealing to this scenario, short positions can be opened at the current price but with s...

# Early in the US session, the Japanese Yen is trading around 131.01, making a retracement after reaching a high of around 131.28, the level which coincides with 3/8 Murray (131.25). In case the Yen trades below 131.25 (4/8 Murray) and below the 21 SMA, it could reach the bottom of 3/8 Murray around 129.68. A sharp break of the downtrend channel formed since March 27 could be a sign of a trend reversal and the yen could climb above the 200 EMA located at 131.80 and finally hit 5/8 of Murray located at 132.81. On the other hand, in case the USD/JPY pair falls and rebounds back to the 129.68 zone, it will be considered a signal to buy with targets at 131.25 (4/8 Murray) and 131.80 (200 EMA). Below 131.25, the Yen could extend its strength and quickly reach the psychological level of 130.00 and finally reach 3/8 Murray located at 129.68. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell at current price levels around 131.09 or in case of a pullback at 131.25, with targets at 130.15...

# Blue lines- bearish RSI divergence Red lines- trading range Bitcoin is trading around $27,300. Over the last couple of sessions price has made no real progress to the upside or the downside. Price is trading mostly sideways inside a trading range. The RSI has provided us with a bearish divergence signal. Short-term support is found at the lower range boundary at $26,700. A break below the lower red range boundary will bring even more sellers and will most probably push price towards $24,500. Resistance is found at $28,880. Recapturing this level would be an important bullish sign. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Prices and Analysis The Japanese yen was a major beneficiary of broad United States Dollar weakness in the past week, after the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, and the greenback is likely to remain in the USD/JPY driving seat in the coming days, even if some more domestic, Japanese drivers may be coming soon. This means more relative Yen strength is highly likely, even if simple market exhaustion may mean it’s not as marked as it has been. After all, the pair has been sliding pretty consistently in response to the monetary policy outlook since October 2022, as can be clearly seen on its daily chart. Chart Compiled Using TradingView Fed’s ‘Dovish Hike’ Hits Dollar The Fed raised interest rates yet again on March 22, but a clear modification of its forward-guidance language has markets upping their bets that borrowing costs won’t rise much further in the world’s largest economy and that the terminal rate will top out some distance below the 5...

# Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral The Australian Dollar steadied last week, trading in a roughly one-cent range around the 67 handle. This comes despite the RBA signalling a pause in their hiking cycle according to the meeting minutes released last week. It seems that the inflation fight is over and there is no longer a need to slow down the economy. Previous RBA boards have generally avoided entering the forecasting game, but it appears that the current regime can see further down the track with expectations of price pressures rolling over. The quarterly CPI figure in late April will be keenly watched to see if the posture is validated. In any case, the relatively dovish stance of the RBA has not undermined the Aussie Dollar as the US Dollar gyrations continue to dominate the currency landscape. Across the Pacific, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell went out of his way a few days ago to reiterate that they can only deal with what’s in front of them when it comes to managing ...

# Following the release of GDP data in Spain and manufacturing activity in Germany, EUR/USD pulled back from the weekly high, opening up good price levels for long positions in the market. At the time of writing, there is a three-wave (ABC) pattern, in which wave A represents the buying pressure from early this week. Traders should consider taking long positions from the 50% retracement level, and then exit the market by taking profit upon the breakdown of 1.10300. This trading idea is based on the "Price Action" and "Stop hunting" methods. Good luck and have a nice day! Don't forget to control the risks. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# The Swiss franc continues to rally and is trading in North America at 0.9139, down 0.37%. USD/CHF has fallen some 200 points in just one week. SNB goes for oversize hike The Swiss National Bank raised rates by 50 basis points today, bringing the cash rate to 1.50%. It was a toss-up whether the SNB would raise rates by 25 or 50 bp, and in the end, policy makers opted for the larger increase. There were strong reasons to support either move. Swiss inflation jumped to 3.4% in February, its highest level since 1993. Although these levels are very low compared to other major economies, inflation is above the target of 0%-2% and this supported a 50-bp increase. At the same time, the market turmoil triggered by the bank crisis provided the SNB with an out, if it so wished, to opt for a smaller 25-bp hike. SNB head Jordan said after the rate decision that the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse had averted a financial disaster, not just for Switzerland but for the global economy. Jordan warned ...

# High price above swing area failed today GBPUSD backs off after break higher failed. The GBPUSD experienced an upward trend today following stronger-than-expected CPI data (refer to Justin's report for details). This surge pushed the price towards Monday's high and a critical swing area ranging between 1.22608 and 1.22823 (indicated by red numbered circles on the four-hour chart). The price moved above that area, and peaked at 1.22967, just shy of the natural resistance at 1.2300. Subsequently, momentum could not be sustained, and sellers entered the market causing a retracement in gains. The price reached a low of 1.2220 in the last hour or so of trading, near the pre-UK CPI level of 1.22275. Currently, the price stands at 1.2236. Looking ahead, the swing area between 1.22608 and 1.22823 remains crucial. Buyers need to push through this range to assert more control. A move above this area, followed by a break above 1.2300, would boost buyers' confidence. Conv...

# Gold price is trading around $1,950. Trend remains bullish but there are signs of vulnerability. Gold price has broken below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and is challenging the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). The kijun-sen provides support at $1,947. A break below the kijun-sen will put pressure on Gold price and will most probably push it towards the cloud support (Kumo) at $1,900. Resistance by the tenkan-sen is found at $1,977. A break above this level will increase chances of a new upward wave above $2,000. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair keeps moving up towards the last swing high located at 1.0760 and the recent local high was made at the level of 1.0731. The market is back above the 100 and 50 MA again and is currently consolidating in a narrow range around the last high. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.0637 and the intraday technical resistance is located at 1.0749. In a case of a breakout to the upside above the level of 1.0760, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.0805. The strong and positive momentum on the H4 time-frame chart support the short-term bullish outlook for EUR. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.07258 WR2 - 1.07006 WR1 - 1.06865 Weekly Pivot - 1.06754 WS1 - 1.06613 WS2 - 1.06502 WS3 - 1.06250 Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.1...

# Red lines- bullish channel Gold price is trading around $1,969. After briefly reaching as high as $2,009 Gold price has started to turn around. Price continues making higher highs and higher lows. Price remains inside the upward sloping channel. Trend remains bullish. As long as price remains inside the short-term bullish channel, trend will remain bullish. At $1,950 we find the lower channel boundary. This is key short-term support. The RSI has started turning lower from overbought levels. A pull back towards the lower channel boundary is the most probable scenario for the near term. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Crude Oil Price Forecast: Neutral Discover what kind of forex trader you are Start Quiz Mounting recession Risks, bank failures and lower demand expectations force oil lower After a week of chaos, oil prices have resumed the downtrend that pushed WTI and Brent crude to 15-month lows. With the US banking system under pressure, mounting recession fears and rising inventories sent oil prices plummeting. For US Crude (WTI), both the weekly API (American Petroleum Institute) and the EIA (Energy Information Administration) echoed these concerns. While both data points smashed estimates, the monthly IEA (International Energy agency) reported that global supply of oil (including Brent) had risen to an 18-month high. DailyFX Economic Calendar Despite the reopening of China’s economy and sanctions against Russian oil by the Europe, the United States and others, oil stockpiles have increased. This contributed to the bearish move, exacerbating concerns over waning demand. Although ...

# Pound Sterling Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Pound sterling, despite the positive forecasts, is yet to really show a significant change in the fundamental data apart from PMI data. Inflation remains in double digits, GDP growth for Q4 revealed a contraction after the smallest of expansions in Q3 (0.1%). The bearish outlook for this forecast takes into account the incredibly challenging task of the Bank of England (BoE) to hike rates while banking stocks attempt to fight off a wave of selling as fears of systemic risk rippled through global banks after the collapse of three midsized US banks. Pound Sterling Gains Ground While Banking Fears Overshadow Spring Statement Pound Sterling had a rather strong week on the face of it. Cable rallied into the end of the week to close the week higher, EUR/GBP declined and GBP/CHF headed into the weekend around 2% higher for the week. GBP/USD Daily Chart Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Statement started very strongly as the chancellor communicated the O...

#  NonLagMA EA reached v3.0. Visible change is the addition of Trend Timeframe, Shift and Deviation and also the Signal Shift. Download the latest version from the NonLagMA Expert Advisor page. #RobotFX Team

# Violet lines- Fibonacci retracements Red lines- Fibonacci extension levels We have been bearish IBM stock for some time now. Price remains in a bearish short-term trend making lower lows and lower highs. Price has surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci support level and the 100% extension target. This was our second target area. Price is now approaching the 3rd target area of the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Price today is trading below the 78.6% Fibonacci support level. Such price action is bearish and there are increased chances that over the coming weeks price will eventually break below October 2022 lows. The RSI is at oversold levels. A short-term bounce is justified, but we believe only as a pause to the downtrend. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Major European indices are turning around from a multiweek bullish run to an ugly reversal. Pull backs or trend reversals to the downside are usually more aggressive and we are now witnessing such a bearish change in the major indices. Yesterday we talked extensively about DAX (German index), while today we start by taking a closer look at the EUROSTOXX50 with the help of the Ichimoku cloud indicator. In Ichimoku cloud terms trend is now neutral as price has enter the Kumo (cloud). Price is below the negatively sloped tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). The Chikou span (black line indicator) is also now below the candlestick pattern. All the above characteristics are of a bearish trend. If these characteristics are combined with a break below the Kumo, then we will get a sell signal. The Spanish IBEX is no different. Price is now in Neutral trend. Price is vulnerable to more downside towards the lower cloud boundary around 4,011. Recapturing...

# Violet lines- Fibonacci retracements Red lines- Fibonacci extension levels We have been bearish IBM stock for some time now. Price remains in a bearish short-term trend making lower lows and lower highs. Price has surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci support level and the 100% extension target. This was our second target area. Price is now approaching the 3rd target area of the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Price today is trading below the 78.6% Fibonacci support level. Such price action is bearish and there are increased chances that over the coming weeks price will eventually break below October 2022 lows. The RSI is at oversold levels. A short-term bounce is justified, but we believe only as a pause to the downtrend. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

#  No trend? No problem. Trading consolidation zone breakouts brought more than 100 pips from AudUsd and UsdChf only #RobotFX Team

#  No trend? No problem. Trading consolidation zone breakouts brought more than 100 pips from AudUsd and UsdChf only #RobotFX Team

# EURUSD bounced off the 100 day MA yesterday The EURUSD has seen up and down price action today, which is what saw yesterday as well. The high-priced today has reached 1.07478. That was just short of the high price for yesterday at 1.07479 (call them the same). EURUSD moves to the low of a swing area Looking at the daily chart above, those high price stalled just ahead of the low of a swing area (see red numbered circles on the chart above) at 1.07509. So there is some resistance ahead. Having said that, the swing area on the daily chart extends up to 1.0805. So there is further room to the upside to go before the door opens more for the buyers. Looking back in time, on January 9, the price started to move back in that the swing area, and stayed above until February 6. From February 6 to February 14, the high prices stayed below the upper end of that swing area (below 1.0805). Since February 15 the price has been below the swing area. So getting back into that swing area...

#   UsdJpy 66 pips trading with the trend by Fluid EA #RobotFX Team

# EURUSD bounced off the 100 day MA yesterday The EURUSD has seen up and down price action today, which is what saw yesterday as well. The high-priced today has reached 1.07478. That was just short of the high price for yesterday at 1.07479 (call them the same). EURUSD moves to the low of a swing area Looking at the daily chart above, those high price stalled just ahead of the low of a swing area (see red numbered circles on the chart above) at 1.07509. So there is some resistance ahead. Having said that, the swing area on the daily chart extends up to 1.0805. So there is further room to the upside to go before the door opens more for the buyers. Looking back in time, on January 9, the price started to move back in that the swing area, and stayed above until February 6. From February 6 to February 14, the high prices stayed below the upper end of that swing area (below 1.0805). Since February 15 the price has been below the swing area. So getting back into that swing area...

#  Great end of the week for UsdChf trading consolidation zone breakouts. 89 pips in 2 trades is not bad. Using Stairsteps EA . #RobotFX Team

# EUR/CAD had been increasing since mid-2022. It has risen by 18,000 pips, and today has updated the yearly high. This creates new conditions for limit orders in the market. With this, traders, starting from current prices, can place a grid of limit orders in increments of 1,000 pips. Exit the market upon the breakdown of 1.46, or after a 2,000-pip rise from the first order. This strategy is called grid trading, which is usually used on cross rates. It involves holding positions that are significant in time and distance. For that reason, it is recommended to use swap-free accounts, not increasing the volumes in the grid (0.01 standard lot for every $1,000 of the deposit), and monitoring price movements, which could reach as much as 12,000 pips. Good luck and have a nice day! Don't forget to control the risks. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# US stocks erased losses after some softening labor data helped cool down this week’s surging Fed rate hike bets. Wall Street is hoping we are about to see a quicker cooling of the labor market, but we probably won’t see major positioning until after Friday’s NFP report.  Fed Chair Powell seems to have signaled they will accelerate the tightening pace to a half-point rate rise if we get both a hot NFP and inflation reports. Some traders are thinking that if tomorrow delivers a not-so-hot jobs report, that we could see Fed fund futures lean towards a quarter-point rate rise for the March 22nd FOMC meeting.   US data Initial jobless claims rose from 190,000 to 211,000 in the week ending March 4th.  Continuing claims rose from a revised 1.649 million to 1.718 million.  We didn’t get another scorching hot labor reading here and that is giving a little relief in the bond market.  Claims had its biggest upside miss and rose to the highest levels since December, b...

# USD/CHF New Uptrend! The USD/CHF pair registered a sharp growth from right below the 0.9300 psychological level to 0.9437 in the short term. Still, after this strong rally, the rate dropped a little and now is trading at 0.93977. As you can see on the H1 chart, the 0.9437 former high stopped the last upside movement. This level represents an upside obstacle, the price dropped after reaching it. Still, as long as it stays above the uptrend line, the USD/CHF pair could resume its uptrend. Technically, the uptrend line is seen as a dynamic downside obstacle. USD/CHF Trading Conclusion! Passing and stabilizing above 0.9437 activates further growth and represents a new buying opportunity. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# On Monday, the EUR/USD pair kept growing in the direction of the upward trend corridor's upper line. This corridor continues to describe the traders' attitude as "bearish." Although I don't anticipate a significant strengthening of the euro, traders will be able to anticipate a stronger rise in the pair's rate if it stays above the corridor. The background information was essentially nonexistent on Monday. In Germany and the European Union, there were several unimportant reports that traders didn't even pay attention to. The ECB and Fed meetings, which will take place in the middle of this month, are gradually coming to the fore. Traders are regaining interest in FOMC and ECB member statements, and there have been a significant number of them recently. I'd like to highlight some of the most high-profile statements that can have a significant impact on traders' moods. The rate will keep rising after the March meeting, according to almost all ECB...

# Price of GBPUSD moves a bow swing area between 1.21425 and 1.2147 GBPUSD trades to a new session high The GBPUSD is trading to a new session high and in the process is looking to break above a swing era between 1.21425 and 1.2147. Those swing highs correspond with highs from highs from February 21 and again on February 28. The high price is currently trading at 1.2153. The two year yield is down -55 basis points to 4.036%. The low yield for the day reach 3.999% before bouncing modestly to the upside. The 10 year note is now down 25 basis points at 3.445%. Note that although the pair is trading to a new session high, the price action has been volatile up and down. The low prices today in the Asian and London morning session found support near the 1.20487 area. That level corresponds with a swing high ceiling from last week's trading (see red numbered circles on the chart above). Support buyers came in near those levels and push the price back to the upside. With the p...

# US Equities Technical Forecast: S&P 500 Outlook - Bearish The S&P 500 plunged 3.76% last week, marking the worst 5-day performance since the middle of September. Fundamentally speaking, bank sector contagion woes were a key factor as investors scrutinized the capital health of SVB Financial and crypto-focused bank Silvergate Capital Corp. From a technical standpoint, it seems Wall Street could be setting up for a rough week ahead. On the daily chart, the S&P 500 confirmed a breakout under the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as well as a bearish Rising Wedge chart formation. This is opening the door to extending losses. Immediate support is the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement level at 3855 before the 61.8% point at 3771 appears towards the 3502 – 3653 zone. In the event of a turn higher, key resistance seems to be the 23.6% level at 4041. Nasdaq 100 Outlook - Bearish The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 2.78% last week. Compared to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, i...

# GBP Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Fundamental Catalyst Remains Elusive for the Pound Pound sterling has struggled against the euro and Swiss franc but made ground against the US dollar, Canadian dollar and Aussie dollar – a scenario all too similar. While the fundamental picture in Great Britain has improved lately, it appears to have improved the outlook from terrible to simply very bad. Recent improvements include, a shallower recession than initially anticipated, a likely deal with the EU regarding the NI protocol, positive services PMI data, the early signs of disinflation and £30 billion available for treasury ahead of the Spring Statement. However, none of these have been able to achieve any kind of sustained GBP rally. Inflation remains too high and the Bank of England continues to hike reluctantly. GBP/USD Daily Chart Large Speculators Anticipate Continued Sterling Weakness The Commitment of Traders (CoT) report shows large hedge funds and money managers maintain net-s...