Stuart's FX analysis

# The wave analysis for the pound/dollar pair now appears to be challenging, but it does not call for any clarifications. The wave patterns for the euro and the pound differ somewhat, but both point to a decrease. Our five-wave upward trend part has the pattern a-b-c-d-e and is most likely already finished. I predict that the downward part of the trend has begun and will continue to develop, taking at least a three-wave pattern. Although Wave B appeared to be unnecessarily prolonged, it did not cancel. So, it is presumed that a wave development process has started with a downward part of the trend, the targets of which are situated below wave a's low. In other words, at least 100–200 points less than the going rate. Although it's too soon to speculate, I believe wave c may end up being deeper and that the entire downward part of the trend may potentially adopt a five-wave pattern. It took a long time for the pair to start moving quotes away from the peaks reached, although it ...

# The Japanese yen has started the week quietly after sustaining sharp losses on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 136.26, down 0.17%. Ueda supports BOJ stimulus Bank of Japan Governor nominee Kazuo Ueda appeared before a second parliamentary committee on Monday and again indicated his support for the central bank’s monetary policy. Ueda said that the BOJ’s ultra-loose policy was appropriate and inflation would have to rise sharply before he would consider a change in policy. The incoming governor is playing it safe by showing support for current policy, which is the logical route ahead of his confirmation by parliament. Despite Ueda’s assurances to the contrary, there is speculation that Ueda will tighten policy in April, when he takes over, or at the June meeting. The markets are carefully monitoring the changing of the guard at the BOJ, as any tweaks in policy can have a huge impact on the yen, as we saw in December when the BOJ widened the band around ...

# US Dollar, Japanese Yen, USD/JPY – Outlook: USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL Developments on the technical charts suggest that the bar is rising for USD/JPY and US Treasury yields to continue their recent run. USD/JPY and US Treasury yields rose on Friday after the US personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.6% on-month in January, higher than the 0.4% expected. Personal spending jumped 1.8% in January Vs the 1.3% forecast. Friday’s stronger-than-expected US data was yet another evidence after a series of upbeat data since the start of the month that suggests the economy is slowing enough and that the US Fed would need to hike rates further and longer in the foreseeable future. Rate futures are now pricing in the Fed funds rate to peak around 5.39% in September Vs slightly over 5.3% in July before Friday’s data. USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart Created Using TradingView Furthermore, incoming Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda cooled s...

# Pound Sterling Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Northern Ireland Protocol Discussions Move in the Right Direction Rishi Sunak has been hard at work attempting to come to an agreement over the flow of goods via the Northern Ireland border as the specifics around checks continued to draw division. However, if any deal is to be made it will need to satisfy the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Essentially, if there is to be an agreement next week, this ought to be positive for the pound but many headwinds still remain, such as: a pending recession and elevated inflation. Britain Marks Anniversary of Ukraine Conflict with Import and Export Bans Britain marked the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with bans on equipment Russia has used to conduct the war. The new wave of bans comes after numerous sanctions, the oil cap and Ukraine Zelensky’s latest meeting with world leaders, rallying for more support to increase the pressure on Russia. The banned exports were followed by a ban ...

# Pound price prediction : Remember that the GBP/USD pair is in donwtrend since a week! so, the GBP/USD pai is really a great fortune. Hence, our target 1.1991 in the next two days. Today, the GBP/USD pair is trading below the weekly pivot point 1.2099. Because the GBP/USD pair broke support which turned to a minor resistance at the price of 1.2099 last week in 2022. The price of 1.2099 is expected to act as major resistance in the first week of December 2022. As long as there is no daily close below 1.2099, there are no chances of a fresh increase below 1.2099 (R1) in the H1 time frame. The support levels will be placed at the prices of 1.2099 and 1.1950. As long as there is no daily close below 1.2099, there are chances of breaking the bottom of 1.1950. The volatility is very high for that the the GBP/USD pair is still moving between 1.2099 and 1.1950 in coming hours. As a result, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend again. Hence, it will be good to sell below th...

#   RobotFX Fluid Expert Advisor Good end of the week for UsdCad, closing the last buying trade with a profit of 76 pips.#RobotFX Team

# Gold price is making new lower lows today towards $1,817. Short-term trend remains bearish as price is still below the 4 hour Kumo (cloud). Both the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) are above current price providing short-term resistance at $1,831. The Chikou span (black line indicator) is also below the candlestick pattern confirming bearish trend. In order to see a trend change, bulls must push price above $1,854 and the upper cloud boundary. In the mean time we find resistance at $1,831-32. Gold price remains in a sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

#   46 pips trading UsdCad in uptrend by Fluid EA . Notice how the first nonlagma signal was ignored and the trade was no closed because the Minimum Profit was not reached. First time the color changed from green to red there was negative profit, so it would have closed in a loss. So the EA closed the trade when the next change happened, in profit. #RobotFX Team

# 200 hour MA at 1.2066 GBPUSD falls back below the 200 hour MA. The GBPUSD has dipped back below the 200 hour MA at 1.20662, tilting the short term bias back to the downside. . Recall that the price yesterday moved above that MA and extended higher. The high price reached 1.2147 before starting a series of lower highs into today's trading. Overall, there have been two dips back to - and through - the 200 hour MA since the move higher. The first was yesterday with a move below the MA by 10 pips. The second was earlier today where the price dipped below but only by 3-4 pips. This recent move below the MA level has seen the pair trade 12 pips below the MA line. The question is, "Can the sellers keep the price below the MA now?" If so, the 100 hour MA at 1.20368 followed by the swing area between 1.1987 to 1.2010 would be targeted (above and below 1.2000 level). Getting below them would be needed to increase the short term bias again. Conversely fail on t...

# BTC/USD is trading at 24,598 at the time of writing below today's high of 25,250. Technically, the price action signaled exhausted buyers in the short term after reaching a major resistance. Bitcoin increased by 18.12% from last week's low of 21,374 to 25,250 today's high. The bias is bullish despite temporary retreats or sideways movements. In the last 7 days, BTC/USD is up by 13.50% but it's down by 1.03% in the last 24 hours. BTC/USD Rally Stopped By 25,250! BTC/USD tested and retested the 25,212 historical level (key level), registering only false breakouts. It seems that we have a strong supply zone around it. Technically, the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork represents a downside obstacle. As long as it stays above it, the rate could extend its growth. The current sideways movement could represent an accumulation. The price tries to attract more buyers before extending its growth. BTC/USD Outlook! A valid breakout above 25,212 activates further...

#   GbpChf H1 60 pips Since we have (finally) finished moving home to robotfx.org , we will resume showing successful trades and winning trading strategies using our EAs. Here are 60 pips on GbpChf, on a chart trading using Fluid EA  - also reminding traders that they can download our EAs for free and test them on their demo accounts.#RobotFX Team

# The USD was lower to start the day. Now higher The strongest to the weakest at the start of day To start the US trading session (and before the US CPI), the USD was mostly lower. The GBP and the EUR were the strongest of the majors and the NZD was the weakest. The USD was right behind the NZD on the weakish end of the currency spectrum. See the ranking above to see what the picture looked like before the data. Since then the market has had some volatile up and down price action but overall, the GBP and EUR remain the stongest. The NZD is still the weakest, but the USD has moved higher and is up vs all the major currencies with the exception of the GBP. The dollar is unchanged vs the EUR. The snapshot of the strongest to the weakest currently Looking at the yields, the 2 year moved from 4.498% to the current yield of 4.622% (up 10 bps). The 10 year moved from 3.688% to 3.78% up 7.5 bps on the day. The S&P was implying a gain of 14 points just before release. It is...

# 100 hour MA stalls the fall for now USDJPY failed on Friday The USDJPY has wandered lower in trading today, helped by continuation selling from Friday's failed break. Looking at the 4 hour chart, the USDJPY moved above a swing area between 134.49 and 134.76 on Friday. The high price extended up to 135.111 before running out of momentum and rotating back to the downside. On Friday, the fall, took the price back below the swing area (see red numbered circles), closing at 134.14. The buyers had their shot. They missed. Today, in Asian trading the USDJPY price rebounded just above the low of the swing area up to 134.533. Once again momentum higher stalled, and the price started to find sellers. The price subsequently rotated back to the downside, reaching a low of 133.914. The current price is trading at 134.05. Drilling down to the 1 hour chart (see chart below), the move lower today did find willing buyers against the rising 100 hour moving average . That moving avera...

# Long-term outlook. The EUR/USD currency pair has continued to decline this week, but at a slower pace than previously. This week's macroeconomic events were few, thus neither the dollar nor the euro experienced significant support. Of course, the US consumer price index, which showed that the rate of price inflation dropped to 6.4%, was the most important data of the week. Yet the actual decline compared to the previous month turned out to be relatively slight, and the report as a result was well received. Since inflation has been slowing for seven months in a row and has recently started to slow further, traders were at a loss as to how to interpret this data, which might lead to a harsher tightening of the Fed's monetary policy in 2023. As a result, how the market interpreted this report was critical. The US dollar increased a little bit further at the end of the week, despite its interpretation not being quite clear. But purchases of American currency still predominate. ...

# Bitcoin, BTC/USD - Technical Outlook: BITCOIN SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - BULLISH Subdued upward momentum associated with the recent jump suggests Bitcoin’s rally is showing some signs of fatigue as it tests a tough hurdle. BTC/USD hit an eight-month high on Thursday and is now testing a crucial ceiling at the August 2022 high of 25200, near the 200-week moving average (now at about 24925). BTC/USD needs to clear the 24650-25200 area for the medium-term downward pressure to ease (see the mid-January update). BTC/USD Daily Chart Chart Created Using TradingView Despite the rise to a multi-month high, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) failed to mirror the strength. Indeed, the lower high in RSI is a sign that BTC/USD may not be ripe to break past the immediate barrier at 24650-25200 just yet. In other words, the last week’s jump could be part of the broader consolidation that started end of January, and not the start of a new leg higher. Bitcoin could continue to remain ...

# Pound Sterling Fundamental Forecast: Bearish From a fundamental point of view, the outlook for the pound remains rather bleak and this supports the fundamental bearish outlook. Consumer data improved slightly but remains constrained overall, while inflation actually showed signs of moving in the right direction, coming in better than expected on both headline and core prints. Despite better than expected prints, the pound ended the week marginally lower. UK Retail Sales sees Slight Improvement in January but Situation Remains Glum UK retail sales rose 0.5% from December but maintained the yearly trend of negative readings, coming in at -5.1% and marking a 10th consecutive year on year drop. The latest yearly reading marks the longest period of negative year on year declines since the Global Financial Crisis. To make matters worse, the December contraction was revised to -1.2% from -1%. UK Retail Sales Data (Month on month in blue, and year on year in red) EU Protocol Talks Move...

# Oil price is trading around $76 and is very close to providing a new bearish signal. Price was trading inside the Kumo (cloud) for the last 8 sessions. Bulls were unable to break above the cloud resistance. Price is now trading below both the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen provide resistance is at $77.50. A daily close below the Kumo (cloud) would be a bearish sign. Bulls need to re-enter the cloud, otherwise price will remain vulnerable to more downside. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Early in the American session, GOLD (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,837 above the 21 SMA. The metal is showing some strength, but there is bearish pressure. So, it is likely that a fall could occur again. Gold reached a low of 1,830 yesterday and has been bouncing since. If it consolidates above 1,840, there could be a rally and the price could reach the 200 EMA located at 1,864. USDX is technically correcting from the 6-week highs reached on Wednesday and US Treasury yields are falling as a consequence. In case this scenario of technical correction of the dollar continues, it could be favorable for gold. Hence, the metal could recover and reach 1,865 in the next few hours. According to the 1-hour chart, we can see a downtrend channel formed since February 9. In case gold trades below 1,930, we would expect it to reach the bottom of this channel at around 1,815. On the other hand, the area of 1,850 (bearish channel top) - 1,875 (4/8 Murray) could act as an immediate obstacle. A te...

# The 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar pair still shows the same wave pattern, which is excellent because it allows us to predict how the situation will develop. Although its amplitude would be more appropriate for the impulsive section, the upward section of the trend has been corrected. The wave pattern a-b-c-d-e that we were able to obtain features a wave e that is far more complex than the other waves. If the wave analysis is accurate, then this structure's development is complete, and wave e was far longer than any other wave. I still anticipate a significant decrease in the pair because we are expected to develop at least three waves downward. The demand for the euro currency was persistently high throughout the first few weeks of 2023, and during this time the pair was only able to deviate marginally from previously reached peaks. The US currency did, however, manage to escape market pressure at the beginning of February, and the present detachment of quotes from the peaks ...

# The USD was lower to start the day. Now higher The strongest to the weakest at the start of day To start the US trading session (and before the US CPI), the USD was mostly lower. The GBP and the EUR were the strongest of the majors and the NZD was the weakest. The USD was right behind the NZD on the weakish end of the currency spectrum. See the ranking above to see what the picture looked like before the data. Since then the market has had some volatile up and down price action but overall, the GBP and EUR remain the stongest. The NZD is still the weakest, but the USD has moved higher and is up vs all the major currencies with the exception of the GBP. The dollar is unchanged vs the EUR. The snapshot of the strongest to the weakest currently Looking at the yields, the 2 year moved from 4.498% to the current yield of 4.622% (up 10 bps). The 10 year moved from 3.688% to 3.78% up 7.5 bps on the day. The S&P was implying a gain of 14 points just before release. It is...

# The New Zealand dollar has started the week in positive territory. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6357, up 0.76%. Will NZ inflation expectations keep rising? It has been a long break for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which last met in November. At the meeting, the central bank delivered a record 75-basis point hike, bringing the cash rate to 4.25%. The rate statement noted that the cash rate would have to rise higher and faster than previously expected in order to curb inflation. The RBNZ holds its next meeting on Feb. 22, with inflation now falling in most major economies. This makes Tuesday’s Inflation Expectations release critical, as it is the final tier-1 release ahead of the rate meeting. Inflation Expectations rose to 3.6% in Q4, up from 3.0% in Q1 and the RBNZ will be watching closely, as the reading could signal in which direction inflation is headed. This could mean significant volatility for the New Zealand dollar after this release. Inflation...

# USD, US DOLLAR, DXY INDEX - Technical Outlook:DXY INDEX SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL FORECAST – NEUTRAL Technical charts suggest it may be too soon to conclude the end of the global US dollar slide. The recent jump in the greenback appears to be a consolidation/correction within the overall downtrend, at least on the daily charts (relevant for swing/positional traders). While the rebound may have occurred over the past couple of weeks, minor cracks in the US dollar’s decline had been emerging since mid-January (see“US Dollar Technical Outlook: Slide Showing Signs of Fatigue?”, published Jan. 14). The US dollar index (DXY Index) is holding above solid support on the 89-week moving average (WMA), roughly around the June 2022 low of 101.30, and the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly charts. Asthe previous update highlighted, the 89-WMA has provided support several times in 2019 and 2020. There is quite a strong hurdle at Tuesday’s high of 104.00. A break above the cap could pave t...

# GBP/USD - Prices, Charts, and Analysis Trade Smarter - Sign up for the DailyFX Newsletter Receive timely and compelling market commentary from the DailyFX team Subscribe to Newsletter The UK economy grew by 4% in 2022, following a 7.6% increase in 2021, but data for the month of December showed the economy contracting by 0.5%, a report released by the ONS showed today. The monthly and Q4 data was roughly in line with analysts’ predictions and while the zero growth seen in Q4 - after a revised 0.2% fall in Q3 - has at least kept the ‘UK in a recession’ headlines at bay, the outlook for the UK economy remains precarious. Breaking News: UK GDP Data in Line with Estimates, GBP/USD Steady For all central bank policy decision dates see the DailyFX Central Bank Calendar With negligible growth on the horizon, next week’s jobs and inflation data will give the next clue as to the current state of the UK economy. Inflation is expected to fall but still remain near a multi-decade hig...

# 100 hour MA below at 1.2073 GBPUSD trade between 100/200 hour MAs The GBPUSD is chopping up and down in a confined trading range today. The high for the day reached 1.21387. The low was down at 1.20789. The 60 pip trading range is much lower than the 177 pip range over the last 22 trading days (around a month of trading). There is room to roam on a break. Be aware of the potential (higher or lower). Looking at the hourly chart, the lows today have been able to stay clear of the rising 100 hour moving average. That currently comes in at 1.2073. A break below the 100 hour moving average would tilt the technical bias more to the downside. Recall from Wednesday, the price rise (of the Tuesday low) found sellers near that falling 100 hour moving average (see blue line in the chart above). In trading yesterday, after breaking above in the early Asian session, sellers turned to buyers and that led to a sharp move to the upside on increased buying momentum. The buying yesterday ...

# In the meantime, it is still to be hoped that trading will continue within the side channel and the downward correction won't be as severe as many fear. Ether was unable to reach its maximum price of $1,700. Additionally, the UK continues to control the bitcoin industry there, even though traders are keenly watching the direction of the market. The UK is likely to soon impose a limit of 10,000 to 20,000 pounds for the storage of a new digital currency, according to the Bank of England spokesperson. The Central Bank and the Treasury are currently working harder to release a digital version of the British pound. However, the government aims to establish limits on the amount of money people can store after the new digital coin goes live to stop the outflow of funds from traditional bank accounts. Before the end of June this year, it is anticipated that these and comparable measures will be debated. Rumor has it that the UK may launch its own CBDC, or central bank digital currency...

# AUD/USD Uptrend Line As Dynamic Obstacle! The AUD/USD pair dropped a little in the short term, having reached the 0.6987 former low which stands as a static upside obstacle (resistance). Now, it is trading at 0.6951 at the time of writing. The rate could approach and reach the 0.6939 former high and the uptrend line. These levels represent downside obstacles, so as long as the instrument stays above them, the rate could resume its growth within the channel's body. Technically, a temporary retreat within this channel could bring us new buying opportunities. The upside scenario could be invalidated only if the rate drops and stabilizes below the uptrend line. AUD/USD Trading Conclusion! Staying above the uptrend line and jumping beyond 0.6987 activates an upside continuation, suggesting a buying opportunity. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# The wave pattern for the pound/dollar pair now appears very confusing but does not call for any clarifications. The wave patterns for the euro and the pound differ somewhat, but both point to a decrease. Our five-wave upward trend section has the letters a-b-c-d-e and is most likely already finished. I anticipate that the downward section of the trend has started to take shape; it will have at least three waves. Although Wave B appeared to be unnecessarily prolonged, it did not end. As a result, last week, a wave could have started to form with a downward component of the trend, the targets of which are situated below wave a's low. The price would be at least 200–300 points less than it is at the moment. The entire downward section of the trend may even take a five-wave structure, in my opinion, and wave c may prove to be deeper than expected. But it's too early to discuss it at this time. The pair has been on the verge of restarting the development of an upward trend sectio...

# The wave pattern for the euro/dollar pair on the 4-hour chart hasn't moved at all recently, which is excellent because it means we know how the situation might change. Although its amplitude is better suited for the impulse section of the trend, the upward section of the trend has been corrected. The wave pattern a-b-c-d-e that we were able to obtain has a significantly more complex wave e than the other four waves. The development of this structure is complete, and wave e turned out to be far longer than all prior waves if the wave used today is accurate. I still anticipate a significant decrease in the instrument because at least three waves are anticipated to be built down. The demand for the euro was persistently high throughout the first few weeks of 2023, and during this time the instrument was only able to move significantly from previously established peaks. The US currency did, however, manage to avoid market pressure at the beginning of February, and the present detach...

# US Dollar Fundamental Forecast Talking Points: Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Bullish The US Dollar managed to finally generate significant volatility this past week, breaking a long stretch of indecision that formed statistically-extreme congestion. The question now is whether the jolt was enough to restore some trend to the currency. For that to be the case, the market will need to tap into one or more of the waylaid systemic themes behind the benchmark. We saw the monetary policy function stirred this past week between the FOMC’s rate hike and a run of strong economic data that was led by the big beat in nonfarm payrolls (NFPs). There is a market discount to the central bank’s own monetary policy forecast, so there is potential for this channel to facilitate some lift for the Dollar. That said, if there were a singular outlet of greatest potential for momentum (in either direction), it would be the possibility of a sharp ‘risk aversion’ recharging the safe haven functio...