Stuart's FX analysis

# USD/CHF Upside Continuation Possible! As you can see on the H1 chart, the rate dropped and it has challenged the uptrend line which represents a downside obstacle. The rate dropped below this line but failed to stabilize below it signaling only a false breakdown. You knew from my previous analysis that the rate could come back to test and retest the uptrend line. As long as it stays above this level, it could resume its growth. USD/CHF Trading Conclusion! Jumping above 0.9848 may signal further growth towards the 0.9966 higher high. Dropping below the uptrend line and under 0.9743 today's low activates a downside movement. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# The USDCHF ping pongs between the 100 hour MA above and the 200 hour MA below The USDCHF ups and downs continue for that pair. Looking at the hourly chart, the price moved through the lower 200 hour MA early in the Asian session and moved up toward the higher 100 hour MA. The high in the late Asian session took the price close to its 100 hour moving average (blueline currently at 0.9862). The high price reached 0.98553 and rotated back to the downside. That moved to the downside reached a low of 0.9781 which was within shouting distance of the rising 200 hour moving average (greenline currently at 0.97762). Buyers reentered and move the price back higher men close to its 100 hour moving average again. This time the high price reached 0.98546, once again just below the 100 hour moving average and also just below the earlier session high. Continuing the ups and downs the price has moved back down to within sniffing distance of the 200 hour moving average once again. This time t...

# Previously, the GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the lower limit of the channel around 1.3000 which failed to hold prices above. Shortly after, a new daily low was established around 1.2150 which was bypassed few days after. However, considerable support zone existed around 1.1850-1.1900 which has prevented further bearish decline for sometime. However, as bullish momentum started to fade away, more bearish visits were expected to challenge these historical low levels. Shortly after, September 28, 2022 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels. Further bearish decline towards 0.9950 may be expected shortly unless re-closure above 1.0860 is achieved first. If so, this would be a high probability bullish pullback at least towards 1.1400. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Low at 0.64377 being tested. The AUDUSD is testing the lows from yesterday at 0.64377. Looking at the weekly chart below, that low took the pair below the 61.8% of the move up from the 2020 low to the high reached in 2021 at 0.64615. After a move higher today took the pair back above that retracement level, the sellers have returned to push the pair's price back below. The level remains a barometer on that chart for short term bullish and bearish. AUDUSD on the weekly chart is back below the 61.8% Also of importance from a technical perspective on the weekly chart is the swing area between 0.6656 and 0.66809. That area had a number of swing lows and highs going back to 2019 and into 2020. Earlier this year, the swing low from the July 10 week stalled against the topside of that area. Two weeks ago the price also stalled in the swing area. Last week the strong dollar buying sent the price tumbling to the downside and through. Drilling down to the hourly chart below, t...

# Red lines- bearish channel EURUSD has started the week where we left it. Under pressure and in short-term bearish trend. Price continued on Monday to make new short-term lower lows and has managed to reach as low as 0.9554. The decline has surpassed our initial expectation of 0.97, a target we have been talking about once it broke below 1.03. Price remains inside the downward sloping channel and today it touched the lower boundary. The RSI has re-entered oversold levels. Trend remains controlled by bears and we continue to consider each bounce as a selling opportunity. A bounce towards 0.97-0.98 is justified from current levels. In the near term over this week we could see such a bounce, but it is too early to call a bottom of the main trend. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Oil continues to fall in price and ends the fourth consecutive week in the red. The rise in interest rates by central banks around the world is canceling out the remnant of optimism as it brings the already inevitable decline of the global economy closer. In recent days, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, as well as the central banks of Switzerland and Norway have announced an increase in rates. And in this all-propagating mood, quotes tend to the very bottom, despite the emerging shortage of raw materials on the market. The cost of November futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange by 11:22 London time was $88.69 per barrel, and by 17:50 fell to $86.19, which is 4.72% lower than the closing price of Thursday's session. The price of futures for WTI oil for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 5.53%, to $78.87 per barrel. In order to prevent prices from sliding to all-time lows, OPEC countries may well call on cou...

# S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Hang Seng Index Technical Forecast Talking Points: Recommended by John Kicklighter How to Trade FX with Your Stock Trading Strategy Get My Guide Technical Forecast for Indices: Bearish S&P 500 and the US Indices There was a broad slump in global indices this past week, and the US benchmarks seemed to symbolically leading the charge. With the FOMC rate decision the anchor of the economic docket, it was hard to miss the tumble from the S&P 500 and its counterparts following the central bank’s 75bp rate hike. Ultimately, the benchmark index held back from breaking the low established back on June 17th. Though, the bounce in the twilight hours of liquidity Friday doesn’t offer much encouragement. Historically, September is the worst month of the year for the S&P 500 and the 39th week of the year (which we are heading into to close out the month) has averaged the worst loss of the calendar year back to 1900. If the market makes a m...

# Blue rectangles- lower highs Black lines- Fibonacci retracements Red line- neckline support (broken) Green lines- expected move Near the end of August we warned that September would be a difficult month for DAX bulls. In September DAX managed to bounce towards 13,970 but failed to keep the short-term bullish trend. Instead price formed a lower high and this week we see DAX break below key lows. Dax is breaking below both August and March lows. This is a very important bearish sign. Our view remains bearish on DAX. Our target remains around the 61.8% retracement or around 11,300 price level. Key short-term resistance is found at 13,563 and as long as we are below this level, we remain bearish. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# EUR/USD Daily Chart The EUR/USD is forming an expanding triangle (blue lines) and is currently setting up a lower low major trend reversal. Bulls see the trading range from August 23 to September 20 as a final flag and expect a reversal up to 1.000, which is the midpoint of the trading range. Bulls want a strong reversal bar and consecutive strong bull trend bars, which would increase the odds of an upside breakout and test of the September 12 close. Bears want to trap the bulls here and get a measuring gap with the breakout below the September 6 close, however, they will probably fail, and the market will reverse back up to the 1.000 big round number. Traders will pay attention today to see if the bulls can get a solid reversal bar trapping the bears and making bears decide if they should exit above. Bears want to get another strong bear trend bar today or at least prevent the bulls from getting a bull close. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# The 100 hour MA tested at 143.45. The 200 hour MA at 143.28 USDJPY tests the 100 hour MA The USDJPY has moved down to retest its 100 hour moving average at 143.45. The low just reached 143.47 and bounced back up to 143.57 currently. The 100 hour moving average is also on a rising trend line on the hourly chart. Buyers are leaning against the levels with likely stops below the level and below the lower 200 hour moving average. That moving average currently comes in at 143.28. Moving below those levels would tilt the bias back to the downside. So far buyers are holding support and buying the dip Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# The high today failed on the topside and rotated back to the downside EURUSD completes the run to the downside support The EURUSD moved down to test the support area near the 0.99515 level. I have been speaking to that level since last week. Recall the level corresponds with the low from July 14 (not shown). That was the stall of the trend move down at the time. In August and early September the price traded above and below the 0.99515 level but started to reestablish a floor near the level last week (on September 14). On Friday, the pair dipped below the level only to bounce back quickly and return back to the high resistance near 1.0035 a short time later. Today, the Asian session high, broke above that swing high, but like the break lower on Friday, the price quickly failed. Also, like Friday, the failure sent the pair to the opposite extreme (i.e. the 0.99515 level). Buyers have pushed the price back higher and toward the broken 100 hour MA at 0.9995. So the dynamic...

# Early in the American session, EUR/USD is trading above the 21 SMA located at 0.9989 and above Murray's 2/8. The euro is likely to continue rising in the coming hours and could reach the 200 EMA zone located at 1.0064. EUR/USD pair is struggling to maintain parity at the beginning of the week. It is trading just above the 21 SMA which offers a positive outlook for the next few hours. Investors have priced in a 0.75% hike from the Fed. On Wednesday, the FOMC is due to announce its policy decision. Therefore, the general response from investors is to trade against the US dollar in the coming days. The euro could reach the strong resistance of 4/8 Murray located at 1.0253 if the policy decision matches the consensus. On the other hand, if the FED increases the funds rate by 100 basis points, the euro could reach the critical support of 0/8 Murray located at 0.9765. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the euro is trading above an uptrend channel formed on September 6t...

# Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Bitcoin, Ethereum - Talking Points Recommended by Brendan Fagan Get Your Free Introduction To Cryptocurrency Trading Get My Guide Bitcoin & Ethereum Outlook: Bearish Bitcoin and Ethereum both took a nosedive this week as a hotter-than-expected US CPI print weighed heavily on global risk assets. The crypto space currently faces a significant number of headwinds, from dwindling risk appetite to potential regulation from Washington. The Fed’s ambitious tightening campaign has dried up appetite for speculative assets, as the US central bank continues to battle against historic inflation. Cryptocurrencies may come under renewed pressure as the Fed looks set to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points next week, with the door remaining open for a potential 100 basis point rate hike. For many crypto investors and traders, the attention was all on Ethereum this past week. The network successfully completed its largest ever upgrade, known simply as “the merge.” The merg...

# There is some downside dip in the US yields leading to dip in the USD EURUSD rebounds off of support. Parity & other targets loom The EURUSD is extending to the upside and looks toward the 200 hour MA at 1.00091 level. Helping is a dip in US yields. The 2 year is off yet another high at 3.924% at 3.89%. The 10 year is now lower on the day by 3.3 bps at 3.42%. The 100 hour MA is at 3.403%. Move below is needed to increase the downside bias in the short term at least. THe high yield reached a high of 3.49%. US 10 year yield dips toward 100 hour MA The pair in the NY session did hold support at the 0.99515 level after breaking briefly below it in the London morning session (helped by selling the GBPUSD on the back of weak retail sales). That move below was quickly reversed with a modest bounce higher. The 200 hour MA has seen moves above and below over the last three trading days, but a swing area between 1.0022 and 1.00328 has given traders an area to lean against....

# Overview : The EUR/USD pair is down -1.26% to €1 in the last 24 hours. The EUR/USD pair dropped below the 1.0078 0 level for the first time for two days. The price of 0.9957 is coincided with the major support in the hourly time frame. Right now, the EUR/USD pair stood at 1 USD, after touching a high of 1.0078 earlier in the day. But the EUR/USD pair has rebounded from the price of 1.0078 to close below the price of 1.0078. Euro parity still in play ahead of decisive US inflation data, for that common currency came within whisker of $1 this week. The EUR/USD pair is still moving around the price of 1.0000. Please, note that the prices of 1.0032 and 1.0072 coincide with the Fibonacci expansion of 50% and 61.8% respectively. 1.0078 has been in a volatile trading range for almost a week now, bouncing between 1.0032 and 1.0072. Resistance of the EUR/USD pair is seen at the prices of 1.0032 and 1.0072. The EUR/USD pair is trading below its resistance for a while. It is likely to tra...

# The leading stock indicators of Western Europe showed a decline on Wednesday. Market participants are avoiding risks amid weak statistical data on the euro region. In addition, investors continue to analyze the latest information on US inflation. So, by the time of writing, the aggregate indicator of the leading companies in Europe, the STOXX Europe 600, had plunged by 0.33% to 419.76 points. Meanwhile, the French CAC 40 fell by 0.14%, the German DAX lost 0.32%, and the British FTSE 100 declined by 0.72%. Leaders of Growth and Decline The value of the securities of the German airline Deutsche Lufthansa AG plunged by 2.5%. The representatives of the Stabilization Fund of Germany reported that they completely sold the shares of the airline, making a profit of 760 million euros. Quotes of the German manufacturer of loading and unloading equipment Kion Group AG fell by 21%. The company predicted a net loss based on the results of the third quarter amid disruptions in logistics chai...

# Ethereum rebounded in the short term and it was trading at 1,556 at the time of writing. The bounce back was natural after the last sell-off. It could test and retest the near-term resistance levels before dropping deeper. ETH/USD increased by 4.97% from today's low of 1,487 to 1,561, today's high. In the last 24 hours, the altcoin is down by 3.83% and by 0.18% in the last 7 days. ETH/USD More Declines In Cards! Technically, ETH/USD came back to retest the broken levels, support turned into resistance levels. After escaping from the up-channel, it was expected to register a strong downside movement. The rebound could be only temporary, the bias remains bearish as long as it stays below 1,606 and under the uptrend line. Technically, the channel represented a downside continuation pattern. Temporary rebounds could bring new short opportunities. ETH/USD Prediction! Testing and retesting 1,560 and 1,606, registering only false breakouts could bring new short opportunities....

# The price of gold has dropped like a rock today and now it is trading at the 1,701 level. Unfortunately, XAU/USD failed to stay in the buyer's territory, so a deeper drop is in the cards. Fundamentally, the RBA increased the Cash Rate from 1.85% to 2.35% matching expectations. Also, the BOC and the ECB are expected to hike rates during the week, that's why the yellow metal could approach and reach new lows. Moreover, the US ISM Services PMI came in at 56.9 versus the 55.4 points expected. USD's appreciation could send XAU/USD down. XAU/USD Bearish Pattern Activated! Technically, XAU/USD failed to stay above the weekly pivot point of 1,715 and above the uptrend line signaling that the leg higher ended and that the sellers could take the lead. In the short term, the metal has tried to retest the broken uptrend line and the pivot point confirming the breakdown. XAU/USD Forecast! Breaking below the 1,707 static support signaled more declines. Actually, the breakdown wa...

# Hello, dear traders! On Friday, the EUR/USD pair again fell to the lower line of the sideways channel. Today, it closed below this line. Therefore, the probability of the further euro's decline towards 0.9782 level has increased. Notably, it has been within the sideways channel for about two weeks. However, the bears are currently increasing the pressure, which may lead to a new euro's decline. Moreover, traders had reasons to sell the euro again both on Friday and Monday. On Friday, positive US labor market data were released. It turned out that nonfarm payrolls totaled 315,000 in August, which was slightly above traders' expectations. The unemployment report was disappointing. It rose from 3.5% to 3.7%. However, the reaction of traders was almost unambiguous, they focused on new purchases of the US dollar. That indicates that nonfarm payrolls are more significant to traders than unemployment or wages reports. Moreover, today the Service PMI (49.8 at expectations of 50....

# Oil Oil prices declined as the global growth outlook continues to deteriorate and as geopolitical risks have yet to lead to any disruptions for crude exports. ​ To start the trading week, it seemed energy traders were anticipating some disruptions from either Iraq or Libya and so far that doesn’t seem to be the case. ​ Today, everything seems to be turning bearish for oil: First, global markets still have a Fed headache that has everyone bracing for further pain for households and businesses. ​ Today’s wrath of EU inflation data supports aggressive tightening that could send Europe into a severe recession. Best Buy’s earnings showed consumers are pulling back on spending, confirming the trend of a much weaker US consumer and raising fears of much weaker growth by the end of the year. Lastly, Taiwan’s military reportedly fired warning shots at a Chinese drone, reminding traders how the tensions between the two world’s largest economies might not see a de-escalation an...

# After adding a whopping 528,000 new jobs in July, the US labor market appeared to be almost definitively back to pre-Covid levels. For the US central bank, such an unexpected gift was very welcome. After all, a strong labor market and an economic recession are incompatible. And if they started talking about a "technical" recession in the United States immediately after the release of data on a decrease in GDP for the second quarter in a row, then the July NonFarm Payrolls indicators became a strong argument refuting the fall of the American economy. What financial politicians have already repeatedly recalled. At the same time, starting with the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve at the symposium in Jackson Hole last Friday and throughout the following week until today, the market was given a clear signal about the further intentions of the central bank. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned emphatically that while controlling inflation through higher interest rates, s...

# Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's words from last Friday that the central bank would continue to operate to its fullest scared the markets so much that they were in an encirclement for the first half of this week. The S&P 500 index was only able to break the losing streak on Thursday, and only by the end of trading, rising by almost 0.3% to 3,966.85 points. At the same time, over the previous four sessions, the indicator fell by about 6%. Traders fear that the Fed may make a mistake and raise interest rates to too high levels, causing a recession in the economy. This year, the US central bank has already raised the key rate by 225 bps. According to UBS strategists, the probability of a recession in the US economy over the next year has increased to 60% over the summer. "The continued jump in US Treasury bond rates and an even more inverted yield curve signal a higher probability of an imminent recession," they noted. The US economy showed relatively go...

# Another euro zone's inflation report is noticeably above analysts' expectations. Eurozone data published on Friday afternoon showed producer price growth of 4% for July and 37.9% year-on-year. At the same time, analysts had expected a 2.5% m/m increase and a slowdown in the annual inflation rate to 35.8%. Fresh record for euro area PPI. The fresh data set a new historical record, shattering the hopes we saw for the peak growth rate two months ago. Producer prices are a step ahead of consumer inflation, so it is unlikely that the pressure on final consumer prices will diminish in the coming months. Preliminary CPI estimates published for August confirm that the inflation spiral continues to unravel. Prices are, on average, 9.1% higher than in the same month a year earlier, almost half of which is due to a jump in energy prices. Euro area CPI hits new high. But there are two additional worrying factors. The first is the acceleration in core inflation to 4.3% y/y...

# The Canadian dollar has extended its losses for a third straight day. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3175, up 0.32%. Canada’s Manufacturing PMI contracts Canada’s Manufacturing PMI fell into negative territory in August, with a reading of 48.7, down from 52.5 in July. The market consensus stood at 53.6. This was the first contraction (a reading below 50.0) since June 2020, when the Covid pandemic hit the Canadian economy. The drivers behind the drop in new orders were a decrease in local and international demand and the uncertain economic climate. Manufacturing production declined for a second straight month, as supply-chain disruptions continue to hamper output. Consumers and businesses have been cutting back on purchases, as they grapple with rising inflation and interest rate hikes, which has dampened the demand for manufactured goods. In the US, positive data today has boosted the US dollar against the major currencies. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for Aug...