Stuart's FX analysis

# Analysis of previous deals:30M chart of the EUR/USD pair The EUR/USD currency pair was not traded on Friday. The pair stood in one place all day, just above the 1.0806 level. The volatility of the day was 33 points. Only the report on industrial production in the United States can be distinguished among the macroeconomic events, which, as it is easy to guess, had no effect on the pair's movement. Thus, it was absolutely impossible to trade the pair on Friday. Plus, a flat... And what do we end up with after the week has ended? The euro/dollar pair continues to remain near its 15-month lows. That is, the downward trend continues. The macroeconomic background has a slight impact on the pair's movement, but at the same time it supports the dollar more than the euro. The fundamental background, which is now expressed by monetary policies and plans of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, is also entirely on the dollar's side. The geopolitical factor, despite so...

# The euro-dollar pair ended the trading week at the base of the 8th figure, reflecting the strength of the downward trend. In general, the past five days of trading turned out to be productive for EUR/USD bears: for the first time since May 2020, the pair tested the seventh figure, reaching 1.0758. This is almost a two-year price low. However, Thursday's downward breakthrough was more of a "reconnaissance fight" - the bears could settle in this price area. Apparently, most traders did not take risks and took profits, thereby reducing the pressure on the pair. But this circumstance does not negate the fact that bearish sentiment still prevails among market participants. The European Central Bank, which, in fact, crossed out the ambitions of EUR/USD bulls. At its April meeting, the ECB did not implement the most hawkish scenario among all possible ones. While the euro needed the very "hawkish high" that would help the bulls of the pair, if not to reverse the tr...

# The Australian dollar paired with the US currency settled at the base of the 74th figure, temporarily suspending the decline. This is partly due to the "Friday factor", partly due to the fact that many trading platforms were closed - the Catholic world celebrates Good Friday. In general, the downward trend remains in force: contradictory data on the Australian labor market, which were published on Thursday, did not help the aussie. Almost all components of the release came out in the red zone, to the disappointment of AUD/USD bulls. On the one hand, there is nothing catastrophic – the labor market has sunk a bit, but the result "in dynamics" is important here in order to understand the trends. On the other hand, now, in fact, an interest rate increase is at stake: the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has allowed the option of tightening monetary policy within the current year, "if the main macroeconomic indicators show an appropriate result." Therefore, t...

# Following the results of the trading session on Thursday, world prices for black gold reported a steady increase. The positive dynamics of the market was promoted by the news that the states of the eurozone plan to adopt a phased ban on oil from Russia. As a result, the price of June Brent crude futures increased by 2.68% to $111.70 per barrel. May contracts for American grade WTI showed an increase of 2.59% to $106.95 per barrel. At the same time, both benchmarks showed the first weekly increase in the current month. For several weeks, commodity prices have been the most volatile since the summer of 2020. There is no trading on Friday due to the holiday in Europe and America on the occasion of Good Friday. US daily newspaper "The New York Times" reported that the European Union is moving towards a phased ban on the supply of Russian oil. The EU is holding back from faster and more decisive steps in order to give Germany and other states time to search for alternative ...

# At the auction on Thursday, key US indicators showed a decline against the background of negative dynamics from the tech, as well as consumer goods and services sectors. The day before, investors evaluated the reports of leading banking groups and a new batch of statistical macro data. As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.33%, the high-tech NASDAQ Composite fell by 2.14%, and the S&P 500 broad market index sank by 1.21%. The highest results among the Dow Jones components on Thursday were shown by the securities of Nike Inc (+4.68%), Caterpillar Inc (+4.37%) and Dow Inc (+2.07%). The list of falls here was headed by stocks Salesforce.com Inc (-3.22%), Apple Inc (-3.00%) and Intel Corporation (-2.85%). The growth leaders among the components of the S&P 500 stock indicator were Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (+4.57%) and Caterpillar Inc (+4.37%). The minimal results here were shown by the shares of State Street Corp (- 8.50%), W.W. Grainger Inc (- 6.77%) a...

# Bitcoin has slowed down its downtrend within a local bearish trend. However, the situation remains tense due to the fact that the asset may plummet significantly. If Bitcoin breaks through $40,000, it would open the way to the next Fibo level, which is below $37,000. Despite this, there are other options for BTC/USD price movement. Currently, investors should take into account Bitcoin's increased correlation with stock markets. The cryptocurrency is moving in tandem with inflated stock indices like the SPX, and is likely to decline more as monetary policy tightens. In addition, there is a period of passive BTC accumulation by large investors. However, the positive trend remains due to the fact that some players and miners are locking in profits. With this in mind, the current accumulation cannot be called a purposeful increase in BTC volumes. This is rather a forced measure provoked by the emergence of free volumes that allow to average the price of the asset. The technical pi...

# The Australian dollar has extended its losses today, as AUD/USD trades just above the 0.74 line in the European session. It has been a rough stretch for the currency, which has managed just one winning session since April 5th. The Australian dollar has been hurt by the Fed-powered US dollar as well as concerns about China’s growth, as the country grapples with an outbreak of Covid. The Federal Reserve has embarked on a rate-tightening cycle, which began with a 0.25% hike at the March meeting. With US inflation soaring, the Fed has been criticized for falling behind the curve on inflation. There is growing pressure to take stronger action and Fed members, including doves such as Lael Brainard, have been telegraphing that one or more oversize rate hikes of 0.50% are on the table. The Fed traditionally adjusts rates by 0.25%, and there are concerns that if the Fed is overaggressive in its rate hikes, it will be difficult to ensure a soft landing for the economy, which could fall into ...

# The strongest weakest of the major currencies US and European markets (for the most part) are closed, but the forex market still trades. The  GBP  is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The major currencies are all clustered really close together with the JPY being the biggest outlier as it continued its move to the upside and trades to a new high going back to 2002. With US rates continuing to move higher, the spread to Japan equivalent yields remain elevated. Looking at the US 10 year yield verse the Japan 10 year yield, the spread is currently 253 basis points which is near the recent cycle high at 2.588% (which represents the highest level since April 2019). US 10 year versus Japan 10 year yield spread Although the US stock and bond markets will be closed, the federal offices will be open. Just to prove it, the  Federal Reserve  has scheduled the release of industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 AM ET. I looked back, and in December...

# The price of gold is trading in the green on the H1 chart. It's located at 1,973 at the time of writing and it seems determined to resume its growth after failing to stabilize below the 1,966 key level. In the short term, it has registered a minor retreat which is natural in an uptrend. Today, the US economic data could bring some volatility and strong moves. Industrial Production could report a 0.4% growth in March, while the Capacity Utilization Rate is expected at 77.8% versus 77.6% in the previous reporting period. XAU/USD Range! Technically, the yellow metal developed a range pattern between 1,978 and 1,960 levels. As you already know, the bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the pitchfork's lower median line (lml). 1,966 stands as strong static support. XAU/USD could climb higher after failing to make a new lower low or to stabilize under this downside obstacle. XAU/USD Outlook! Making a valid breakout above the 1,978 static resistance, a new higher hig...

# The USD/JPY pair climbed as much as 126.68 today. It has resumed its growth as expected as the Dollar Index is bullish while the Yen Basket maintains a bearish bias! You knew from my previous analysis that the currency pair could extend its growth as long as it stays above the 125.10 key level and above the uptrend line. So, the bias is bullish, but it remains to see how it will react later after the US data. Poor economic figures could force the Dollar Index to retreat. The Empire State Manufacturing Index could be reported at 0.9 points versus -11.8 in the previous reporting period. In addition, the Capacity Utilization Rate could be reported at 77.8%, while Industrial Production may report a 0.4% growth in March. USD/JPY Targeting New Highs! USD/JPY tested and retested the 125.10 former high before resuming its growth. Its failure to reach and retest the uptrend line signal that the buyers are very strong in the short term. Now, it has passed above the weekly R1 (126.15) and a...

# The Japanese yen can’t seem to buy a break, as the currency has been pummelled by the US dollar, and is down by a massive 9% this year. Earlier today, USD/JPY hit 126.68, its highest level since May 2002. With the yen in free-fall, the 130 line is looking like a real possibility. Yen at 20-year low The main driver behind the yen’s massive fall is the widening US/Japan rate differential, as the yen is very sensitive to rate moves. US yields did edge lower earlier in the week but quickly recovered, as US 10-year yields have risen to 2.83%, marking a 52-week high. With even Fed doves like Lael Brainard talking about super-size rate increases of 0.50%, there’s a strong likelihood that the Fed will accelerate its tightening cycle, which would provide a strong boost for the US dollar. USD/JPY has breezed past its multi-year high of 125.80 and the upswing looks ready to continue into next week. The Bank of Japan has tried to curb the yen’s nasty slide, trying to “talk down the yen” by st...

# Bearish GBP/JPY is currently at 164.46 at the top of the range. We have divergence for the short. IF we can break the 164.29 support, we are looking for an initial move to the former day chart top at the 163.74 area, and then the ATR Target at 162.93. Watch the USDX for any change in direction. The ATR for the pair currently is 165 pips per day and its 180 day average is 136 pips per day. USDX was currently up at the time of this post. GBP/JPY trying to break down Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# Technical analysis: Gold has been trading upside but there is the test of key resistance cluster at the price of $1.980. I see potential for the downside rotation of the key resistance. Trading recommendation: Due to the test and reject of the key resistance cluster, I see potential for the downside movement. Watch for potential selling opportunities with the downside objectives at $1.967 and $1.952. Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought condition and potential fresh bear cross, which is sign for further downside movement. Resistance is set at the price of $1.980 Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# The European Central Bank has decided not to make adjustments to its monetary policy at its meeting on Thursday. The interest rate on the ECB's main refinancing operations, as well as the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. Market players expected the EU regulator to tighten its policy after the release of EU CPI data, which indicated that consumer prices have hit record highs. However, the ECB did not meet these expectations. The ECB's president Christine Lagarde is expected to shed more light on ECB's plans at the post-meeting press conference. If Lagarde signals that some board members voted for hiking interest rates, or that the policy could be tightened depending on the inflationary pressure, the euro can possibly recover strongly today. Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# The strongest to weakest of the major currency pairs The JPY is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day. The ECB kept rates unchanged and said that forward guidance remains the same. The APP will also remain unchanged with expectations for it to end in the 3rd quarter. The ECB will not raise rates until APP program is finished. There is no commitment to tighten policy sooner (which will all hinge on the APP purchases. The EURUSD has moved lower on the headline news falling from 1.0913 to around 1.0865 currently. The press conference with ECBs Lagarde will commence at the usual 8:30 AM ET and last for an hour with focus on the APP purchase trajectory. . Also at 8:30 AM, The US will release the March retail sales report with expectations of 0.6% vs 0.3% last month. The core (ex auto) is expected to rise by 1.0% (vs 0.2% last month). Ex auto and gas came in at -0.4% last month (no estimate). The weekly US initial jobless claim data is coming off...

# Technical analysis: BTC has been trading downside this morning and there is the breakout of the contraction pattern in the background, which is sign for the further downside movement.. Trading recommendation: Due to the breakout of the contraction pattern in the pattern and the supply this morning, I see potential for the further downside movement. Watch for potential selling opportunities on the intraday rallies with the downside objectives at $40.300 and $39.360. MACD oscillator is showing negative reading after the period of the positive reading, which can represent change in trend behavior. Resistance is set at the price of $41.500 Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# Gold (XAU/USD) is rising again on Wednesday and does not stop the upward march. XAU/USD hit as high as 1,980.60, reaching the highest level in a month. It reached that level after bouncing off $1,960. The bullish bias remains intact. Gold is trading close to daily highs below 1,980. In three days, it has accumulated a gain of $43 and the rally does not stop, even despite the advance in Treasury yields. This could mean that risk aversion is on the rise and gold could break through the barrier $2,000 and even reach the high at 2,070. The US dollar index continues to be the safe-haven asset like gold and it does not seem to affect it negatively. USDX finally closed in the positive on Tuesday, completing eight days with gains. On Wednesday, the index rises again, to the highest since May 2020. It is now trading around 100.40. According to the 1-hour chart, gold is trading inside an uptrend channel formed since April 7. Besides, gold is trading above the 21 SMA and above the 200 EMA....

# GBPUSD is taking another shot above its 100 hour MA The  GBPUSD  has broken to a new session high and in the process has moved above its 100 hour moving average at 1.30285. That break higher comes after the pair moved to the lowest level since November 6 earlier in the day after taking out the swing low from April 8 at 1.29818. The low price reached 1.2971 before rotating back to the upside. Helping the technical view in the near term is that the last swing low - before the recent move to the upside over the last few hours - could only get to 1.29899 before the push back higher. With the price back above the 100 day moving average, the buyers are taking another shot at the upside. Recall from yesterday, the GBPUSD price extended above the 100 hour moving average (the MA was at a higher level) but reversed and buyers turned to sellers into the close. Back on April 7, a similar move was made only to have the buyers shot miss. So this is the third shot in the last five tr...

# Canadian dollar yawns after rate hike The Bank of Canada was expected to come out flying, and it certainly didn’t disappoint as it increased interest rates by 50-basis points. This was the second hike in two months after the central bank had kept rates at an ultra-low 0.25% for close to two years. New Zealand’s central bank increased rates by 50 basis points earlier today, and the Bank of Canada has become the first in the G-7 to implement “super-size” hikes of 0.50%. This marks the first time the BoC has implemented a 0.50% rate since May 2000. In addition, the BoC announced that it will begin shrinking its balance sheet, a process known as quantitatve tightening, at the end of April. The dramatic news hasn’t had any impact on the Canadian dollar so far, which is unchanged on the day. USD/CAD was rising ahead of the announcement but has since given up all of those gains. That could change, depending on the reaction to Governor Macklem’s press conference. The BoC has clearly come ...

# Gold price is trading around $1,975 and today price is challenging the important kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). Price remains above the Kumo (cloud) confirming trend remains bullish. If bulls manage to close price above the kijun-sen then we will get a bullish signal. Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# USDJPY moved back below the old March high The  USDJPY  has moved below the old high from March 28 at 125.093. Recall from yesterday, the price moved above that level, and on the hourly chart peaked against the underside of a old broken trendline (see chart above). Sellers leaned against that level and consolidated over the last 24 hours or so. The CPI has helped to push the price lower and back below that old high level. That level will be a barometer for both buyers and sellers in trading today. Can the sellers keep pressure on? On more downside momentum, the 100 hour moving average comes in at 124.487 and would be the next major target on the increased selling pressure. Of note technically off the longer term monthly chart below, is that the price high yesterday and today tested the swing high from June 2015 at 125.851. The high price yesterday reached 125.764 just below that key level. The high price today was at 125.75. The highs going back to 2015 are symmetrical ...

# The New Zealand dollar is finally in positive territory on Tuesday, after posting five consecutive losing sessions. RBNZ rate decision looms The RBNZ is widely expected to increase rates from the current 1.00% at the Wednesday meeting, but by how much? Pundits are calling the rate decision a “coin toss” between a 0.25% and a 0.50% increase. Most analysts expect a 0.25% move, but the markets are clamoring for a super-size 0.50% move, given soaring inflation. If investors don’t get the 0.50% move, the New Zealand dollar could take a tumble. With the RBNZ well into its rate-hike cycle, the markets will be combing through the rate statement to expect the bank to be hawkish in its forward guidance. The central bank finds itself caught between a rock and a hard place ahead of this key rate decision. There is strong pressure to contain inflation, which could hit 7%, and the most effective inflation-busting tool is one or more 0.50% rate hikes. At the same time, a sharp rise in inter...

# Solana has made a low around $97.32 and is now bouncing higher. Price is now at $107 and Solana seems to have formed a higher low at a key Fibonacci retracement level. In our last analysis when Solana price was challenging horizontal support at $116-$117, we warned traders that a break below that horizontal support would lead price towards $98. Black lines- Fibonacci retracements Solana has reached our second pull back target. Price has retraced 61.8% of the upward move from 476 to $142. Price has made a higher low and bulls must now defend it. If the higher low is not violated downwards, we should expect Solana to challenge the recent highs at $142-$143. Breaking above this level will push Solana price towards the 61.8% retracement of the entire decline at $187. Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# According to data released on Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK unemployment in December-February fell from 3.9% to 3.8%. This is the lowest value since December 2019. Thus, the unemployment rate for the three months from December to February fell below the pre-crisis level, indicating a continuing shortage in the labor market, and employment continued to grow (35,000 new jobs were created in March, and their total number increased to 29.6 million). The number of vacancies in January-March reached a new record of 1.288 million, and the average weekly earnings for December-February (excluding bonuses) rose by 4.0% after rising by 3.8% in the previous three-month period. Demand for workers remains strong even as economic activity is under pressure from higher inflation and the situation in Ukraine. Despite these seemingly brilliant data, market participants trading the pound reacted negatively to them: the pound declined, and the FTSE 100 index of the London St...

# Gold price is trading above $1,950-60 where we found the upper trading range boundary. Long-term trend remains bullish as price continues to respect the long-term trend line support coming from $1,200. Blue lines- trading range (broken) Gold is now trading above the trading range making a push above the highs of the last three weeks. Short-term trend is bullish. Support at $1,900 has held and Gold is now recapturing higher levels. Black line -long-term trend line support Gold price has made a double top around $2,070. Price got rejected the second time price reached $2,070 and back tested the $1,900-$1,880 area where we find horizontal support from the high made in May of 2021. As long as price holds above the black upward sloping trend line bulls are in control of the weekly trend. Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# The US stock market moved significantly lower yesterday, with the broad-based S&P 500 losing 1.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.2%. The NASDAQ Composite Index showed an even greater decline of 2.2%. Last week, the index fell even lower by 3.9%. There are a number of reasons behind such a significant decline in US indices. First, investors are concerned about the plans of the US Federal Reserve to continue monetary tightening in order to combat rising inflation. Against this backdrop, US Treasuries yield is growing. Yesterday, it rose to 2.779% from the level of 2.713% on Friday. This is the highest rate in the last three years. The second cause of concern is the spread of COVID-19 and the re-introduction of lockdowns in China, which, in turn, affects oil prices. Oil has been losing ground for several weeks now. Brent crude has depreciated by 4.2% to $98.48 per barrel. In addition, the fact that some countries continue to buy oil from Russia lowers the dema...

# The euro clawed its way back to the 1.09 line on Monday but has retreated. EUR/USD fell 1.57% last week and hasn’t had a winning session in the month of April. It’s Macron vs. Le Pen, again The first round of the French presidential election is over, and it will be a repeat run-off (final round) between President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen of the far-right. The two candidates ran against each other in the 2017 election, which Macron easily won. This time, however, it is shaping up to be a much closer race. Macron is slightly ahead, but Le Pen has been closing the gap and there is a sizeable amount of the electorate that is unhappy with Macron’s performance. The runoff takes place in two weeks, and election polls will likely have an impact on the euro’s movement. Le Pen is a fierce euro-sceptic and if she appears to be gaining in the polls, it will be bearish for the euro. The ECB holds a policy meeting on Thursday, and a dovish stance from the central bank won’t do any favo...

# Emmanuel Macron's nominal victory in the first round of the French presidential election helped EUR/USD buyers start the trading week from the upward gap, in the area of the 9th figure. However, this fundamental factor will not be a reliable help to the single currency. Firstly, we are talking only about the first round, and secondly, it is difficult to call Macron's victory "convincing." Rather, on the contrary, his rival – Marine Le Pen – for the first time in many years had a really real opportunity to take the presidency. Therefore, buyers of EUR/USD should not build false illusions: in the medium term, they will not be able to reverse the downward trend. So, it is still advisable to use any corrective pullbacks to open short positions. According to the results of processing 100% of the protocols, Emmanuel Macron scored 27.6% of the votes. Marine Le Pen came in second with 23.41% and Jean-Luc Melenchon was in third garnering 21.95%. According to most politica...

# Technical outlook: Gold prices rallied through $1,960-65 zone on Monday as expected. The yellow metal might have found interim resistance and prices can pullback from here towards $1,930-40 zone before resuming higher. Potential remains for a push through $1,975 and up to $1,990 as projected on the 4H chart here. Gold prices have already carved a meaningful downswing between $2,070 and $1,890 levels earlier. The metal has been carving a ounter trend rally since $1,890 low and has met with first potential resistance around $1,960-65 zone. Also note that $1,960 is fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the above downswing. Prices can retrace a bit from current levels. Furthermore, bulls are looking poised to push higher through $2,000 mark, which is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above downswing. It remains to be seen if prices rally through $2,000 levels directly from here or after pulling back. Gold prices are expected to rally in the next few trading sessions. Trading plan: Po...

# Bitcoin is trading just above $40,700. On Friday price closed below the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). This provided another sign of weakness. As expected after the breakdown, price fell towards the cloud support around $40,000. Daily trend by the Ichimoku cloud indicator remains bullish as price is still above the Kumo (cloud). However with price below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and the kijun-sen , trend is vulnerable to more downside. The tenkan-sen is also about to cross below the kijun-sen. This will be a sign of weakness. Resistance by the kijun-sen is at $44,080 where we also find the tenkan-sen. Bulls need to reclaim this price level in order to take full control of the trend. Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# Global market sentiment turned pessimistic this past week, particularly in growth-sensitive equities. On Wall Street, Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures fell 0.23% and 1.19% respectively. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 declined 3.54%. Risk aversion also hit Europe, in the German DAX 40 falling 1.13%. In the Asia-Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 sank 2.46% A hawkish Federal Reserve continues to be in the focus for investors, with policymakers doubling down on the willingness to deliver 50-basis point rate hikes. Treasury yields extended gains, with longer-term maturities outperforming near-term ones. As a result, the US Dollar strengthened to the detriment of the Euro and British Pound. Rising yields also worked against the Japanese Yen. Anti-fiat gold prices remained resilient despite this, perhaps capitalizing on rising prospects of more sanctions from the West against Russia as the latter’s attack on Ukraine prolonged. Looking at energy, WTI crude oil prices fell about 1.4% la...

# Last week, we saw EUR/USD targeting $1.09860—which was realized. We also predicted that should the price break below that target, we could see it heading down to $1.08846. Sure enough, that price was easily reached as there was no bullish candle in sight. In two days the price dropped 130 pips, which was close to the EUR/USD's average pip range where EUR/USD price moves around 80 pips per day. Then on Wednesday and Thursday, candles with a small body, but large wicks on the upper side formed. The upper side wicks told us the price had found demand at the $1.08846 target which made the price bounce upwards. But, bearish strength returned the price downward. On the down side we had small wicks where bearish pressure pushed the price below $1.08846. Each day's price closed the day below the previous day's candle close price. That showed bearish strength again which culminated on Friday. At the end of last week, EUR/USD price broke further downward, almost reaching $1.078...

# The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument continues to look convincing. The proposed wave 4 took a five-wave form and turned out to be completely different from wave 2. However, now this wave is recognized as complete, and the wave pattern does not require any changes. Accordingly, the instrument began constructing the proposed wave 5-E. If this assumption is correct, then the decline in the quotes of the euro currency may continue for another one or two months. At the moment, the entire wave structure of the descending trend section looks almost fully equipped, but wave 5-E is likely to also take a five-wave form. If this is the case, then at the moment, the construction of only the first wave consisting of 5-E has been completed. Thus, the instrument still has a fairly strong potential for decline. The first target is around 1.0721, which equates to 200.0% Fibonacci. At the same time, much of the instrument will now depend not only on geopolitics but also...