Stuart's FX analysis

USDCAD has stopped its rise from 1.30 at the resistance of 1.33. In the Daily chart we observe many candlesticks with long upper tails, implying strong resistance and that sellers are stronger here than bulls. This is expected to lead to a reversal in USDCAD back towards 1.32 at least. Red arrows - weakness candlesticks with long upper tails Black line- short-term resistance Blue line- major support trend line Red line -major resistance USDCAD is expected to turn lower from current levels. At 1.33 I’m bearish looking for a push lower towards 1.32 at least. The risk reward favors bears at the current price as price is very close to major resistance that has been confirmed many times. The black trend line resistance has not been broken. I expect to see it stay like this for the coming week. This coming week I expect USDCAD to weaken. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Expecting bearish reversal in USDCAD

BTCUSD is bouncing inside a downward sloping wedge pattern. For another bullish trend to start we first need to see some signs of strength. BTCUSD must first exit the downward sloping wedge pattern and start making higher highs and higher lows. Red lines - bullish wedge Resistance by the wedge pattern is found at $8,800-$9,000 price level. The RSI on the Daily chart is turning upwards from oversold levels. Price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire bull wave of Bitcoin. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is a very common area of trend reversals. So what bulls need now is to show more signs of strength. First break above the wedge pattern and then break above the latest important high. The $9,900 area is important resistance and a break above it will confirm trend change. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via What do BTCUSD bulls need for a new up trend to start?

Gold price did not break below $1,455-50 support and is bouncing again higher towards $1.470. There are signs that point to further upside in Gold as price could reach the upper bearish channel boundary around $1,490. Green lines - bearish channel Orange rectangle -short-term target Red line -RSI resistance (broken) Gold price is bouncing. The RSI has broken its resistance trend line. This is a bullish sign. Gold price could continue higher this week and eventually reach $1,490 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from $1,515. Since support at $1,450-55 was respected, we have to adjust our strategy as well. As long as price is above $1,450 we are short-term bullish looking for a move towards $1,490 and why not higher. Major resistance remains at $1,490-$1,500. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Gold bulls give hope for $1,490

The three consecutive price lows in EURUSD combined with non confirmation from the RSI is a bullish setup. This bullish divergence pattern most of the times points to a reversal. That is why I turn short-term bullish at least for EURUSD looking for a bounce towards 1.11 at least. Red lines - bullish divergence Orange rectangle - support area EURUSD has not broken below the orange support area. Support is critical in this Fibonacci retracement level and as we previously mentioned, at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement the chances of a trend reversal are high. The bullish divergence in the 4 hour chart supports the bullish scenario for a bounce towards 1.11. We are bullish EURUSD as long as price is above this week’s lows. A weekly close above 1.1060 will increase the chances of pushing above 1.11 even towards 1.12-1.13 over the coming weeks. For this to hold support must hold at 1.10-1.0990. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via EURUSD bullish s...

On September the 3rd, the GBPJPY pair initiated the depicted bullish movement uptrend around 126.76 This occurred after the preceding bullish ABC pattern with neckline located around 130.52 has been confirmed. Since then, the depicted uptrend has been intact until October 17 when the pair failed to achieve a new high above 141.50 followed by the current sideway consolidation channel slightly above 139.50 (100% Fibonacci Expansion Level). Bearish divergence has been manifested during the mentioned recent upward movement. Moreover, On November 27, upthrust daily candlestick followed by an inverted hammer daily candlestick were manifested around 141.50 denoting a high-probability bearish reversal opportunity around the upper limit of the current movement channel (141.50-142.10). Technically, a quick bearish decline is expected towards 139.50 initially where the nearest demand level should be located. Trade Recommendations: Intermediate-term outlook remains bearish as long as beari...

Technical outlook: EURUSD is trading sluggishly without any pronounced dynamics during the last several sessions. It is trading around 1.1010 levels at this point in writing with potential for another marginal low below 1.0992. However, it may reverse. Unless bulls are able to break beyond 1.1030 levels from here, EURUSD remains vulnerable to drop lower at least to 1.0980, and up to 1.0940, before finding a meaningful support. Please note that the recent boundary that is being worked upon is still between 1.0879 and 1.1180 respectively. The current drop can be seen as correction till prices remain above 1.0930/40 levels which is the Fibonacci 0.786 support/retracement of the previous rally. Only if prices break break below 1.0940 levels, it should be a matter of concern to the existing bullish setup. Major support remains intact at 1.0879 levels for now and the risk for long positions remain just at that levels for now. Looking at the current wave structure, EURUSD is expected to fin...

GBP/JPY is still consolidating just below resistance at 141.58 but it should just be a matter of time before this resistance is taken out for a continuation higher towards 143.19 and 144.58 as the next upside targets. Short-term support is seen at 141.36 and then at 140.90. We expect the later support to protect the downside for a clear break above 141.58. R3: 142.57 R2: 142.14 R1: 141.74 Pivot: 141.58 S1: 141.36 S2: 140.90 S3: 140.61 Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from 140.12 with our stop placed at 139.85 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 29 - 2019

EUR/JPY is still trying to break the level of 120.68. It should just be a matter of time before this hurdle cracks and the pair continues to advance to 121.40 and 121.98. Short-term support is located at 120.33 and then at 120.05. We expect the later support to be able to protect the downside for a clear break above 120.68. R3: 121.98 R2: 121.40 R1: 121.13 Pivot: 120.68 S1: 120.33 S2: 120.05 S3: 119.80 Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.55 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 29 - 2019

This morning I would like to put attention to the commodity market. Natural Gas is vunerable to the risk-on / risk-off sentiment and any changes in oil prices. NatGas shows a very seasonal behavior with big price movements in correspondance to winter months; the weeks before these movements started, volumes had the tendency to consistently increase. This is what has been happening during recent weeks again, an increase in contracts. The price has been edging lower in the last 20 days (-15%) but basically it has been trapped in the same range since mid-summer. Now it is just clearly testing a trendline and approaching the 2.475 level. It was the support level from where price rebounded at the end of 2017 ; 2.43 / 2.55 area should be observed. Don’t get me wrong: NatGas has a clear long term structural descending prices trend , probably pushed by improvement and innovations in the production and logistic chain. But right now, I think it’s worth having a look at how to choose a buyin...

When the European market opens, such economic data as Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment Change, French Prelim GDP q/q, French Prelim CPI m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m will be published. The US will not release any macroeconomic reports. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY’S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1064. Strong Resistance: 1.1058. Original Resistance: 1.1047. Inner Sell Area: 1.1036.Target Inner Area: 1.1012. Inner Buy Area: 1.0984. Original Support: 1.0973. Strong Support: 1.0962. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0956. (Disclaimer) The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, November 29,2019

Japan will release the data on the Housing Starts y/y, Consumer Confidence, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Unemployment Rate, and Tokyo Core CPI y/y. The US will not publish any macroeconomic reports. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during this day.TODAY’S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance.3:110.06. Resistance. 2:109.86. Resistance. 1:109.65. Support. 1:109.34. Support. 2:109.13. Support. 3:108.93. (Disclaimer) The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Technical analysis: Important intraday Level for USD/JPY, November 29,2019

EUR/USD Forex experienced reduced volatility in the thin market yesterday, due to the holiday in the US. Euro trading volumes were the smallest since August. The price was trading on the MACD line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator has slightly increased, but is in the negative trend zone On the four-hour chart, the price also developed below the MACD indicator line, but the signal line of the Marlin oscillator managed to infiltrate the growth zone. However, it’s still not deep, the line will easily return with the (expected) price fall. During periods of consolidation, especially when the MACD line itself is located horizontally, the price can be wound on it as an axis without deviation far from it. Therefore, the consolidation range defined in yesterday’s review at 1.0985-1.1026 remains today. The United States has a shorter working day today, so we do not expect the price to go out of the range today. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex...

GBP/USD The British pound slightly fell (by 11 points) amid the general calm background that was on the market yesterday, where it found support for a lower time frame. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves horizontally below the boundary with the growth territory, this increases its sensitivity to price changes, that is, the oscillator loses its leading function. The general trend continues to grow, the MACD line moves straight up. Target level at 1.3012 is becoming more tangible. The receipt of a powerful positive from the fundamental component can extend the growth to the price channel line in the region of 1.3144. On the four-hour chart, yesterday, the price found support at the Fibonacci level of 61.8% and on the balance indicator line. The Marlin signal line in the growth zone. We look forward to an attempt for the price to grow to the target range of 1.2975/95, given the Fibonacci levels of 100.0% and 110.0%. From this range, a price reversal is possible and the 1....

USD/JPY The US/DJPY pair is trying its best to grow, but it is hindered by political events in China and the unstable situation in the stock market. Major Asian indices are trading just below zero, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is knocked out of this series, losing 1.61% due to US pressure to pass its own Human Rights and Democracy Act in Hong Kong. There is not much left until the target level of 109.90 - to the line of the green ascending price channel. Upon reaching the level, a decisive reduction in prices is possible, here the first goal will be to support the red price channel around 108.50. The MACD line is also striving for the same mark on the daily chart. With overcoming the first goal, the second opens - the intersection point of two lines of price channels - 107.58. On a four-hour chart, the price is above the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the line of the Marlin oscillator is falling, which may be preparation for the formation of divergence in case of price growth. Wait f...

Price is approaching our first support at 1.29072 where we are expecting a bounce to our first resistance level at 1.29682 Entry: 1.29682 100% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support Take Profit : 1.29682 Why it’s good : horizontal swing high resistance The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

AUDUSD to drop below resistance at 0.67730 Entry: 0.67730 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Take Profit : 0.67515 Why it’s good : 127.20% Fibonacci Extension The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Drop expected on AUD/USD

Entry: 109.85 Why it’s good: Horizontal swing high resistance 100% Fibonacci extension Take Profit : 107.898 Why it’s good : 100% Fibonacci extension Horizontal swing low support 50% Fibonacci retracement The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via USD/JPY to drop from 1st resistance, potential drop!

Minuette operational scale (H4) Let’s consider what will happen to the “raw” currency instruments on November 29, 2019 - Here’s a comprehensive analysis of the development options for the movement #USDX vs AUD/USD vs USD/CAD vs NZD/USD. ____________________ US dollar Index From November 29, 2019, the dollar Index #USDX will continue to develop the movement depending on the direction of the breakdown range: resistance level of 98.40 on the starting line SSL of the Minuette operational scale fork; support level of 98.30 on the reaction line RL23.6 of the Minuette operational scale fork. With a joint breakdown of the initial - SSL (resistance level of 98.40) and control - UTL (resistance level of 98.45) lines of the Minuette operational scale fork, the upward movement of #USDX can be continued to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (98.65 - 99.02 - 99.40) of the Minuette operational scale fork. On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the RL23.6 Minuette reaction line (suppor...

Forecast for November 29: Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1: For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1045, 1.1024, 1.1010, 1.0983, 1.0953 and 1.0931. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the downward structure of November 21. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.0983. In this case, the target is 1.0953. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0931. Upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to the top. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1010 - 1.1024. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1045. This level is a key support for the downward structure. The main trend is the downward structure of November 21 Trading recommendations: Buy: 1.1010 Take profit: 1.1022 Buy: 1.1025 Take profit: 1.1045 Sell: 1.0983 Take profit: 1.095...

The Australian currency is experiencing significant difficulties during the week. The aussie is heading up, but its attempts are unsuccessful. Most analysts are pushing the Australian dollar to decline further, emphasizing that the AUD/USD pair is in a protracted downward trend. The fall of the aussie intensified following the statement of Reserve Bank of Australia Chief Philip Lowe. The central bank allows a twofold reduction in interest rates by June 2020, after which a quantitative easing program will be launched. The AUD/USD pair fell by 0.2% to 0.6772 on Wednesday, November 27, while Australia’s three-year government bond yields lost 10 basis points. The pair reached this level again on Thursday, November 28. Today, the AUD / USD pair tried to find the bottom, from time to time dropping even lower. Quotes ran in the range of 0.6767–0.6768,slightly increasing. However, the current trend is aimed at going down in general, analysts say. Earlier this week, experts recorded stron...

The economic downturn in the eurozone underlines the importance of preliminary data on the consumer price index in Germany. Weak regional indicators point to the gloomy picture of CPI in Germany. It is expected that the general consumer price index will fall by 0.6% in November compared with the previous month, while the annual figure will increase by 1.3% compared with 1.1% in October. In Hesse, Brandenburg and Bavaria, inflation in November was -0.8% versus + 0.1% in October. Consumer price index in North Rhine-Westphalia reached -0.7% in November against +0.1% earlier. How can this affect EUR/USD? Of course, the euro will become cheaper against the background of these data. If you add to them also the current monetary policy of the ECB, the decline can be significant. Key technical levels for EUR/USD trading: Support is expected to reach 1.0990, followed by 1.0940 - October low. A drop to 1.0879 is possible towards the end of the year. The resistance of the pair can meet at the l...

Greetings, dear traders! Today, November 28, like every last Thursday of November, Thanksgiving is celebrated in the United States. A very respected holiday in the States Currency exchanges do not work on this day and thus, many analysts predict lower volatility on this day. On the one hand, this is logical, but I decided to conduct a comparative analysis of volatility on this holiday for American exchanges for the most popular currency pair for several years which is the EUR / USD currency pair. So, EUR / USD in 2016: The volatility of the pair is about 50p. This day was a local downward trend reversal. EUR / USD in 2017: The volatility is 120p. After this day, the trend changed direction for a week. EUR / USD in 2018: The volatility is 50 p, but it was already on the eve after it declined by 80 p in the market. These were Thanksgiving Days from 2016 to 2019. As you can see, volatility is not so low, especially in 2017. Now, it is up to you how to use it. In any case, be ca...

European currencies are again in their eternal confrontation, but the dollar is not trying to crush the euro. At the same time, the greenback cannot enjoy the taste of victory, because his opponent, who had previously been actively fighting for the championship in the EUR / USD pair, shows signs of fatigue. According to analysts, the apathy of the European currency is caused by the general fatigue of world markets. It is provoked by a number of factors, among which are the fatigue of investors and traders from protracted trade negotiations both between China and the United States, and about Brexit. Experts do not exclude that the market will continue to move towards constantly low volatility. A marked reduction in volatility is inherent in the single currency, especially in the EUR/USD pair. Economists record not only the widespread fatigue of the financial market, but also a significant narrowing of trading ranges in most currency pairs, in the classic EUR/USD in particular. This i...

Good evening, dear traders! Yesterday, we gave a trading idea for the growth of oil but paid attention to the evening news on oil reserves in the United States. Let’s analyze this situation on volumes. During the time of the opening of Europe, the price immediately went up and while it is on the way to the maximum of 58.74, there was another extremum - 58.56. At the breakdown of which, there was practically no doubt about the further increase in price. Looking at the chart, even the trend line up indicates purchases. However, It is very important that all this happened in the middle of the European session and before the release of the weekly news on Oil Reserves for about another 5 hours. That is, everyone only sees purchases. At the time of the opening of the American session, there was also no increase in prices. Although the upward trend still remained, which added confidence in the growth. In addition, at the time of the news release, summing up all mentioned above, the state o...

4-hour timeframe Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 77p - 106p - 78p - 69p - 89p. Average volatility over the past 5 days: 84p (average). The GBP/USD currency pair continues to be traded inside the 200-point side channel and, as expected, having reached its upper boundary, began a round of downward movement. It’s hard to say how strong this downward movement will be. Nevertheless, one cannot exclude the fact that the upward trend may nevertheless resume. However, until we confidently overcome the level of 1.3000, which is also a psychological mark, we still do not recommend seriously considering the further strengthening of the pound. Today, no economic news has been received from Great Britain, and all the news bulletins are full of the results of a new case study, in which more than 100,000 people took part and who predicted a confident victory for the Conservatives. So certain that the adoption of Brexit according to Boris Johnson’s plan is almost a settled issue. However,...

The euro-dollar pair continues to trade in the flat, without leaving a narrow price range. The contradictory fundamental background does not allow traders - neither buyers or sellers - to show character. In addition, Thanksgiving is currently being celebrated in the United States today, and there are adjustments: US trading floors are closed, so the remaining market participants are forced to trade in low liquidity. A similar picture will also be observed in late December and early January. I believe that by this time the pair will exit the price band of 1.09870-1.1090, in which it was stuck in early November. So far, traders are not able to create a large-scale price movement to leave the above price niche. For each positive is its negative and vice versa. This applies to both the euro and the dollar. For example, dollar bulls did not have time to be inspired by the growth of the US economy (indicators for the third quarter were revised upwards), as inflation indicators arrived right...

4-hour timeframe Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 45p - 74p - 28p - 19p - 33p. Average volatility over the past 5 days: 40p (low). The EUR/USD currency pair continues a completely non-initiative movement on the penultimate trading day of the week. If a few days ago, although with low volatility, a trend movement was still observed, now there is no such movement. Traders seem to have left the market in full force, and the volatility of today is as much as 20 points. Is it worth it to pay attention to the technical picture in such a situation? How to tear off traffic in as many as 20 points per day? What to expect from a pair that shows such volatility? We believe that everything is to blame for the same paradoxical situation that we are talking about in almost every review, as that is now the key reason for what happens with the currency pair. We still believe that the bears simply refuse to continue selling the euro, being around 2-year lows for no good reason. We have alre...

US GDP grew by 2.1% in the 3rd quarter. The first preliminary estimate is revised upwards. Meanwhile, the growth is higher than in the 2nd quarter, which was a surprise for the markets, however, the growth rate of consumer spending slowed down to 2.5% against 4.6% in the 2nd quarter. The report leaves a mixed impression. Despite stronger-than-forecast GDP growth, there are clear signs of a slowdown in the main driving force of the US economy - consumer spending, which in turn supports inflation and ultimately determines the monetary policy of the Fed. At the same time, it is no coincidence that the yield on 5-year TIPS bonds, which reflects real business inflation forecasts, continues to be in the area of November lows and didn’t react at all to GDP and PCE data. The United States, in turn, reflects the dynamics of global demand with a big lead, and if consumer spending in the United States begins to slow down, then such a signal will inevitably be perceived as negative in the rest ...