Stuart's FX analysis

# Hawkish Fed means downside limited for dollar Greenback could find support on haven flows Dollar Index inside massive long-term level The US Dollar remained under pressure in the first half of the last trading day of the year and was set to end 2022 on a downbeat note after its stellar performance peaked in September. As we look forward to the new year, I reckon there is a good chance for a comeback, as the Dollar Index (DXY) tests a key support area amid a still-favorable macro environment for the greenback. Before discussing the macro backdrop further, let’s take a quick look at the DXY’s long-term weekly chart, below: DXY Weekly Chart While there were no signs of a comeback for the dollar at the time of writing, the DXY was inside a major long-term support zone in the shaded region on the chart between 101.95 to 103.80. The upper end of this range marked the highs made in 2017 and 2020, while the lower end is the 50% retracement against the entire upward move of the l...

# Early in the American session, the British Pound (GBP/USD) was trading around 1.2036 bouncing after having reached the 200 EMA located at 1.2017. It is expected that in the next few hours, it will continue to bounce and could reach the zone of 1.2070 and even the 1.2124 weekly maximum. A daily close below the 200 EMA could signify a bearish continuation and the price could reach 5/8 Murray at 1.1962. It is a key level as below this zone, the British pound could trigger a bearish acceleration and reach 4/8 Murray at 1.1718. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the eagle indicator is giving a positive signal. Supported by our technical tool we could conclude that any rebound toward the 1.2000 zone will be considered an opportunity to buy. The GBP/USD technical outlook suggests that buyers remain hesitant to take large trading volumes. A daily close above 1.2050 could mean an advance in the recovery of the British pound and it could approach the resistance of 1.2207 (6/8 M...

# The euro/dollar instrument's 4-hour chart still shows a convincing wave marking, and the entire upward section of the trend is still very complex. It now has a clear corrective and lengthened form. The waves a-b-c-d-e have been combined into a complex correction structure, with wave e having a form that is significantly more complex than the other waves. Since the peak of wave e is much higher than the peak of wave C, if the current wave layout is accurate, construction on this structure may be nearly finished or may already be finished. In this scenario, we must construct at least three waves. In any case, I'm getting ready to lower the instrument. The market has demonstrated to everyone this year that it would rather wait and rest than actively work, so it may start as early as next year. The market is prepared to sell when an attempt to surpass the 1.0726 level, which corresponds to 200.0% Fibonacci, fails. Despite what might seem to be everything needed for it, the deman...

# The GBP/AUD cross currency pair is currently moving in a ranging condition, this is caused by market participants who are in a condition of Christmas and New Year holidays so that participation in the market is somewhat reduced causing significant volatility not too busy, but with the emergence of irregularities between the price movements of the GBP/AUD and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator, the GBP/AUD has the potential to depreciate down to test the 4-hour Bullish Fair Value Gap area level in the range of 1.7810-1.7770 but if on its way to that level area suddenly GBP/AUD returns appreciates up beyond the level of 1.8065, the decline scenario described earlier will become invalid and cancel itself. (Disclaimer) Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# With most financial markets closed on Monday, trading will be thin. Japanese markets are open and USD/JPY has edged higher, trading at 132.82, up 0.34%. Kuroda plays down yield curve move The Bank of Japan announced a policy change last week, and the ramifications were massive for the Japanese yen, as USD/JPY jumped as much as 4.8% following the move. The BoJ widened the yield curve on long-term bonds from 0.25% to 0.50% but maintained the yield target at 0%. The tweak to the yield curve caught the markets napping, and the shocking move now has the markets buzzing as to whether the BoJ is planning further policy changes to its ultra-low monetary policy. Investors heard from the man himself earlier today, as BoJ Governor Kuroda gave a speech where he stated that last week’s move was not a prelude to withdrawing its massive stimulus programme. In fact, he said the widening of the yield curve would enhance the Bank’s ultra-easy policy. Kuroda reiterated his well-worn theme that the B...

# Long-term outlook. This week, the EUR/USD currency pair has only displayed one thing: an absolute flat. Since Catholic Christmas is being observed this weekend and there is still about a week until the New Year, this movement should not come as much of a surprise. Therefore, it is quite understandable why the market is passive. But at the same time, we also observed that the pound sterling was trading quite briskly. Our confusion is caused by the movements of the two major pairs not correlating. Given that the fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds this week were essentially the same for both pairs, we won't try to speculate as to why this occurred. They were practically absent, to be more precise. Therefore, if we discuss movement logic, the euro has done better in this regard. Naturally, the technical situation has not changed given the lack of movement. The pair on the 24-hour TF is still above all of the Ichimoku indicator's lines, so it is still in an upward trend....

# Oil posted solid weekly gains as Russia said it may reduce crude production in response to price caps imposed by the G7 on its exports, underscoring risks to global supplies in the new year. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose above $78 a barrel and is expected to rise more than 5% this week, despite concerns about short-term demand in China and U.S. data reinforced the prospect of further rate hikes. Russia could cut production by 500,000 to 700,000 bpd in response to the cap, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, state news service TASS reported. Oil recovered after hitting a yearly low earlier this month, despite fears that the U.S. and Europe could plunge into recession next year. As the war in Ukraine continues, traders await Moscow's full response to the restriction, a policy that has set a ceiling of $60 a barrel for Russian flows in an attempt to cut its revenues while keeping exports in the market. President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that he would sign ...

# The USD is weaker The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies The NZD is the strongest and the the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is weaker. The US stocks are up modestly after larger declines yesterday. The US yields are higher. Today the US PCE data will be released at the bottom of the hour. The core PC is expected to be up 0.2% and 4.7% year on year. Personal income and consumption will also be released with 0.3% for income and 0.2% for consumption expected. Preliminary durable goods for November will be released with expectations of -0.6% and 0.0% ex transportation. Later at 10 AM the University of Michigan final composite index is expected to come in at 59.1 unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Last month it was at 56.8. The new home sales will also be released with expectations of 0.600M versus 0.632M last month. Existing home sales was released earlier this week, and came in at at the lowest level since June 2020 during the height...

# Red lines- Fibonacci retracements Green lines- Fibonacci retracements Blue lines- Fibonacci extension targets DAX is under pressure. Price is now at 13,997 after getting rejected at the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline. A lower high has been formed. Support is at recent low at 13,786. A break below this low will be a bearish signal. If we get this bearish signal then our downside targets will be at 13,635-,13,600 and below that at 13,300-13,260. If bulls manage to hold above support and price breaks above 14,120, then we should expect DAX to reach the 61.8% retracement at 14,337. We believe that the most likely scenario is for price to make deeper pull back towards 13,600-13,300. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Early in the American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2147 below the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA. Since December 15, we can see that the British pound has been trading within a downtrend channel. The British pound could face strong resistance around 1.2160 and 1.2175. In case GBP/USD fails to break it, we could expect a technical correction towards 1.2100 levels and the pair could even reach the area of 1.2061. The Eagle indicator is giving positive divergence but has a zone of strong resistance. So, any bounce in the GBP/USD pair below 1.2175 could be considered an opportunity to sell. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Early in the American session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,807.79 above the 21 SMA and below the 6/8 Murray. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see a bullish bias. The metal is unaffected by resistance and it is likely to reach the zone of 1,812 (6/8 Murray) and 1,820 -1,825 (maximum of December 13), just in case the uptrend continues. In case gold reaches the area of 1,810 -1,812 and breaks sharply above this level, it will be seen as an opportunity to buy with targets at 1,820 and 1,825. Alternatively, in case gold reaches the daily resistance zone (R_3) between 1,820 and 1,825, it will be considered an opportunity to sell with targets at 1,812 and 1,789. It is expected that during these days of festivities, the market will trade with low liquidity. Therefore, we should be braced for sudden twists in the price of gold. So, we could expect strong upward or downward movements. Hence, we must be very careful. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell gold only...

# Red line -resistance (broken) Blue line- bullish divergence The Dollar index is trading above the upper wedge boundary. Price is showing signs of strength, signs of a reversal. Bulls need to start a sequence of higher highs and higher lows in order for this to be a confirmed reversal. As we said in previous posts, the combination of the bullish RSI divergence and the exit from the downward sloping wedge pattern is favorable to bulls. A rejection here could lead the index towards 102.70. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Watch for the buying opportunities on the USD/CAD Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Long-term outlook. During the current week, the EUR/USD currency pair may exhibit highly volatile movements and sharp reversals in various directions. It didn't display any of this, though. There was only one reversal, and the volatility indicators were within the "norm." This week is arguably the most significant of 2022, but this is odd. Not because it was the most significant event of the year but because of the extreme concentration of significant events that took place there. You can think back to the European Central Bank meeting, the November final inflation report, business activity indices for manufacturing and services, and industrial production. In addition to the news from the EU, there was a sizable collection of statistics from abroad. As a result, traders had a reason to respond. However, despite the pair's strong overbought condition, the long-awaited downward correction has not yet started. There was a decrease in quotes on Thursday and Friday, b...

# Watch for the buying opportunities on the USD/CAD Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# The Australian dollar is sharply lower on Thursday. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6755, down 1.58%. Australian employment shines Australia’s robust labour market continues to impress, with a stellar performance in November. The economy created 64,000 new jobs, above the October reading of 32,000 and blowing away the consensus of 19,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.4%. There was more good news as the Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Expectations fell to 5.2%, down from 6.0% previously and below the consensus of 5.7%. The reading  have been overshadowed by the employment report and the Fed rate meeting, but is an indication that stubborn inflation is falling. The Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t meet until February and a lot can happen until then, but as things stand now, we can expect a fourth straight hike of 25 basis points at the next meeting. The Federal Reserve has been talking hawkish for months, but the markets haven’t been listening all ...

#  Since our new affiliate system launched, we have considered that the discount coupons offered for performing specific tasks have become obsolete. Therefore, we have delete those coupons  and instead we recommend everyone to register as an affiliate. #RobotFX Team

# The New Zealand dollar is slightly higher on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6376, up 0.34%. New Zealand manufacturing in trouble New Zealand’s manufacturing sector is showing signs of strain, as high costs and hiring challenges in a tight labour market remain key problems. Manufacturing PMI contracted in October, for the first time since August 2021, dropping from 51.7 to 49.3. We’ll get a look at the November report next week. Manufacturing Sales slipped 4.9% in Q2, and third-quarter data will be released on Friday. Another decline is expected, with a consensus of -2.4%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand remains in hawkish mode and hiked by 75 bp at its last meeting, bringing the cash rate to 4.25%. The RBNZ considered a full-point increase, which is indicative of how seriously policy makers view the threat of high inflation, which has hit 7.2%. The RBNZ now has a long break until the next meeting on February 22nd, which will give it plenty of tim...

# 1.24507 is the 61.8% retracement GBPUSD sets up for the FOMC/BOE The GBPUSD is moving to a new day high and in the process is moving closer to the 61.8% of the 2022 trading range. That range had a high in the beginning of January at 1.37479, and a low on September 26 at 1.0352 as new PM Truss was making her budget blunders that led to her resignation on October 20 after 44 days in office. The 61.8% retracement of the year's trading range comes in at 1.24507. The high price yesterday reached 1.2443 just 7-8 pips short of that target. Looking back at the rally from the lows this year, the move to the upside breached the 100 day MA (blue line on the chart below) at 1.16639 on November 10. The higher 200 day moving average (green line) was broken on December 1 at 1.2153 (it is currently at 1.21074). Although the price dipped breifly below the 200 day moving average on December 6 and December 7, the price did not close below that moving average keeping the buyers in control...

# Price levels around 1.1700 has been holding prices for a short period of time before another price decline took place towards 1.1200. Shortly after, the price zone around 1.1500 has applied significant SELLING pressure when a valid SELL Entry was offered upon the previous ascending movement towards it. Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been moving downwards reaching the price levels of 1.0850, 1.0400, 1.0000 and recently 0.9600. The market remained under Selling pressure until the recent bullish break above 1.0000 was achieved. Now the market remains under buying pressure until significant downside rejection occurs around one of the key- levels probably around 1.0600. In the mean time, any downside movement towards 1.0000 should be watched for BUYING pressure where a new upside movement can be established. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# The wave marking for the pound/dollar instrument currently appears quite confusing, but it still needs to be clarified. We have a five-wave upward trend section, which has taken the form a-b-c-d-e and may already be complete. As a result, the instrument's price increase may last for a while. Both instruments are still forming an upward trend segment that will eventually lead to a mutual decline. Recently, the British pound's news background has been so varied that it is challenging to sum it up in one word. The British pound had more than enough reasons to rise and fall. As you can see, it primarily chose the first option and still does so today. The proposed wave e has become more complicated due to the recent rise in quotes. It's already evolved into a fairly extended form at this point. I am currently waiting for the decline of both instruments. Still, these trend sections may take an even longer form because the wave marking on both instruments allows the ascending s...

# Euro Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Neutral Recommended by Richard Snow How to Trade EUR/USD Get My Guide Europe Braces for Cold Temperatures as Gas Prices Rise Again Markets continue to exhibit signs of being in transition as dominant trends for most of 2022 appear under threat. For most of this year, EUR/USD has trended lower but signs of easing inflation in the US has resulted in markets pricing in a softer dollar on the hopes that the Fed funds rate needn’t rise as high, or remain high for as long, as initially anticipated. A softer dollar and declining US treasury yields have been the driving force behind the EUR/USD ascendency, which is why this article considers developments in the US next week, mainly, the FOMC interest rate decision but also a crucial CPI print for November after the cooler October print. Headwinds for the eurozone appeared to be dissipating as the price of EU gas declined during what has thus far been a mild fall (the 5th hottest on record) and th...

# Gold and Silver Weekly Technical Forecast: Neutral Recommended by Tammy Da Costa Top Trading Lessons Get My Guide Gold Trades Cautiously While Silver Bulls March On Gold and silver have been trading higher over recent weeks as the US Dollar surrenders a portion of its recent gains. With XAU/USD currently trading above the key psychological level of 1800, this week’s price action remained subdued. As fundamental intensity eased and technical levels took centerstage, gold prices failed to gain traction, ending the week flat. While the formation of a doji candle on the weekly chart forms around the 50-week MA (moving average) at 1807, next week’s event risk could drive the short-term move. As central banks remain focused on taming inflation through restrictive monetary tightening, higher interest rates have been priced in leaving recession risks at the forefront of risk appetite. XAU/USD Weekly Chart Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa using TradingView Gold (XAU/USD) Tec...

#We have redesigned our affiliate system. Now everyone can register as an affiliate, get their referral link and earn money that can be used to purchase any of our paid products. Register here . #RobotFX Team

# Major Asian indicators are on the rise again. The Hang Seng Index and the Nikkei 225 were the biggest gainers, adding 1.78% and 1.28% respectively. The Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite posted the smallest increase, rising by 0.14% and 0.2% respectively. The KOSPI and the S&P/ASX 200 edged up by 0.5% and 0.47% respectively. Rising US indexes on Thursday contributed to the positive mood among investors. The main US stock indexes gained as much as 1.1% after several straight days of losses. Chinese inflation data provided additional support to Asian markets. Over the past month, inflation in China declined to 1.6% from 2.1% in October. In contrast to the producer price index, consumer prices hit the lowest level in six months and matched expectations of analysts. The PPI fell by 1.3%, while experts forecasted a decline by 1.4%. On the Hang Seng Index, stocks of real estate development companies have increased. Longfor Group Holdings, Ltd. rose by 10%, China Resource...

# The New Zealand dollar is slightly higher on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6376, up 0.34%. New Zealand manufacturing in trouble New Zealand’s manufacturing sector is showing signs of strain, as high costs and hiring challenges in a tight labour market remain key problems. Manufacturing PMI contracted in October, for the first time since August 2021, dropping from 51.7 to 49.3. We’ll get a look at the November report next week. Manufacturing Sales slipped 4.9% in Q2, and third-quarter data will be released on Friday. Another decline is expected, with a consensus of -2.4%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand remains in hawkish mode and hiked by 75 bp at its last meeting, bringing the cash rate to 4.25%. The RBNZ considered a full-point increase, which is indicative of how seriously policy makers view the threat of high inflation, which has hit 7.2%. The RBNZ now has a long break until the next meeting on February 22nd, which will give it plenty of tim...

# EUR/USD Daily Chart The EUR/USD is forming a wedge top, and the bulls are trying to break above it and reach the measured move target above (1.0697). The market may have to reach the measured move target before the channel that began on November 21 converts into a trading range. While the bulls have a decent amount of buying pressure since the November 10 and 11 bull breakout, the bears have done enough to make traders question how long the channel that began November 21 will last. Bears are getting decent selling pressure. However, they likely need more selling pressure before many bears are willing to sell below bars for a swing. At the moment, the odds favor higher prices, even if the market has to pull back for a few legs first. If the bears can continue to develop more bear bars closing below their midpoints, the odds will increase that the market will return to the November 21 low. Overall, the market is in a tight bull channel. While the bears make money selling ab...

# The US dollar steamrolled every other major currency this year, capitalizing on a perfect storm of widening interest rate differentials, safe-haven flows, and an absence of attractive alternatives. This ferocious rally could extend into next year, as most economies will likely fall into recession long before the US does. Nonetheless, the second half of the year might see a reversal in this trend. Could the yen come from behind to be the winner of 2023, in case the dollar rally comes off the boil? Dollar rally enters final chapter It’s been a stormy year for FX markets, characterized by severe episodes of volatility as central banks and governments across the world unwound the extraordinary stimulus rolled out during the pandemic. Being long the US dollar was the only trade that worked, with the reserve currency crushing everything in its path as the Fed rolled out the big guns. Looking into next year, this wave of dollar strength could persist early on, but perhaps reverse later in...

# EUR/USD is steady at the start of the week. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0534, down 0.06%. The US dollar has been struggling and fell 1.5% against the euro last week. The euro rally fizzled on Friday, as the US employment report was stronger than expected. The economy created 263,000 jobs in November, slightly lower than the October reading of 284,000 but well above the consensus of 200,000. Wage growth impressed, as the reading of 5.1% y/y was up from 4.9% and beat the forecast of 4.6%. The labor market continues to show a surprising resiliency and the increase in wage growth will drive inflationary pressure. The Fed is expected to ease rates to 50 bp in December, but the strong labour market indicates that the economy can absorb further rate hikes in the New Year. Investors were hoping for a weak jobs report which would force the Fed to scale back its hikes and fuel a stock market rally, but the strong data has dashed those hopes. The eurozone continues ...

# USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY Forecast: Neutral Recommended by Tammy Da Costa How to Trade USD/JPY Get My Guide USD/JPY Extends Losses Despite Brief Rebound in Dollar Strength USD/JPY has risen back above the 200-day MA (moving average), providing support around the 134.506 handle. After falling to a three-month low of 133.626 (last tested in mid-August), a better-than-expected NFP (non-farm payroll) report supported a slight rebound for the safe-haven currency pair. Most Read: NFP Posts Yet Another Beat as US Job Market Proves Resilient, USD Rises With the Federal Reserve continuing efforts to drive inflation lower by raising interest rates, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has kept rates low to stimulate economic growth. As market participants focus on the strong wage growth and resilient US employment data, USD/JPY jumped to 135.98 upon release. However, with another 50-basis point hike expected at the December FOMC, buying pressure eased, driving price action lower. Foundatio...

# Long-term perspective. The EUR/USD currency pair has been trading higher again this week, adding approximately 150 points. Given that we have been waiting for the end of the two-year global downward trend for a long time, it does not appear to be too much. But first, let's address all of this week's paradoxes. Almost every day during this time, we discussed how the growth of the European currency was completely illogical and unreasonable. Generally, the pair increased only on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. What's all the fuss about these days? On Wednesday evening, Jerome Powell delivered a speech. Powell's speech is not a Nonfarm or a Central Bank meeting, to which the market always reacts. The Fed's chairman speaks frequently, and other members of the monetary committee speak as well, making it difficult to surprise the market with regular monetary policy statements. And, on Wednesday, the Fed's chairman said nothing new to traders that they didn't a...

# Review : The EUR/USD pair has faced strong resistances at the levels of 1.0425 because support had become resistance on Nov. 29, 2022. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 1.0425 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0425, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 1.0425 (the level of 1.0425 coincides with a ratio of 78% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.0480. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.0480 to the bottom around 1.0300. But the pair has rebounded from the bottom of 1.0300 to close at 1.0333. The EUR/USD pair's outlook and further decline is expected with 1.0425 minor resistance intact. Current down trend should move fro...

# EUR/USD Daily Chart The EUR/USD had an outside up bar yesterday, closing about the November 29 high. This is good for the bulls. However, the bulls need follow-through today. Outside bars are typically trading range bars, and most of them lead to sideways price action. The market is still Always In Long, and the bulls still have a slight advantage in probability. While it would not take much for the bears to get in control, the bulls have done an excellent job demonstrating strength with bull bars closing above their midpoints. At the moment, the odds are that the bulls will get their measured move up of the November 10 and 11 bull breakout based on the bodies of the breakout bars. Bears need to continue developing more selling pressure to regain control. They can do this by making the market sideways or creating big bear trend bars close near their lows. Bears have a problem because the November 10 and 11 breakout bars closed above the past 60 bars.   Trading an...