Stuart's FX analysis

# Analysis of Monday's trades: EUR/USD 30M Chart On Monday, February 28th, the EUR/USD pair saw choppy trading again. In the first hour after the market opening, the pair plunged 150 pips from Friday's closing levels. So, it has become clear from the start that Monday's session is going to be yet another roller coaster. In the subsequent trades, the pair was trying to recoup overnight losses. However, the pair barely touched the technical levels. In addition, there were few strong technical signals. No important macroeconomic reports were scheduled for release on Monday. The only event that could attract attention was the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde but she did not provide any significant comments. Therefore, fundamental factors did not influence the price movements on Monday. The driving force was numerous geopolitical updates received during the weekend. EUR/USD 5M Chart In the 5M chart, it was hard to find any trading opportunities, but there was a cha...

# Goldman Sachs raised its 2022 consumer price forecast. The bank's analysts believe that the increase in energy prices caused by the conflict in Ukraine is likely to push inflation in the eurozone to a new peak in May. Inflation in France exceeded experts' forecasts. The first signs for European hawks: prices in the eurozone are rising So, on Friday, February 25, the bank published a new forecast, raising its assumptions on inflation to 6.5% in May with a downward trend to 5.4% by the end of the year. Experts note that while accelerating inflation will increase pressure on the European Central Bank, its negative impact on consumption suggests that policymakers may be more patient. "The associated risks to operations and potential side effects to the fiscal outlook (especially in Italy) suggest that more patience may be needed in normalizing policy," the institution's report notes. Inflation hit the eurozone It is difficult to disagree with the position of ...

# Currency markets begin the week oversold and are oversold to and overbought to . and commence the week oversold while overbought to , and . and begin the week oversold while overbought to and . and start the week oversold, while oversold and neutral to oversold . and begin the week overbought while oversold to . starts the week overbought and matches USD/JPY.  Oversold EUR/USD and GBP/USD contend with overbought and while overbought and hold compliance to overbought AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Overbought matches to oversold USD/CAD. Overbought CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY comply to oversold USD/CAD. NZD/CHF closed at 0.6214 and the vital average is located at 0.6214. A price close on an average nullifies the statistics to the average which means NZD/CHF begins the week at perfect neutral. This is a 1 in 1 million occurrence and may never be seen again. traded from 0.8200 to 0.8600’s for the past 6 months while EUR/USD held an 1.1100 to 1.1400 range or 300 pips for the past 3 months. ...

# Long-term perspective. The GBP/USD currency pair has fallen by 200 points during the current week. In principle, no one even has any doubts now about what exactly caused the collapse on Thursday. The British currency is considered less stable than the euro, especially after Brexit. Although over the past 14 months it has been the pound that has risen in price against the dollar more actively and has become cheaper more reluctantly, on Thursday, it collapsed down by 300 points. No macroeconomic statistics or fundamental events mattered to traders this week. And it should be noted that there were not many of them. Andrew Bailey's speech once again confirmed the Bank of England's readiness to raise the rate further to fight inflation. Business activity indices in the UK did not matter at all. The British pound began to decline on Tuesday as if anticipating a catastrophe. Thus, by and large, there are no macroeconomic factors for analysis now. And those that were not taken into...

# Long-term perspective. The EUR/USD currency pair has collapsed by 130 points during the current week. Moreover, the fall was much stronger, but on Friday, the market recovered a little and bought off some of the losses. Thus, only minus 130 points. In principle, there is nothing to discuss now. All week, the markets have been closely following the Ukraine-Russia conflict, as well as the reaction of the whole world to it. Macroeconomics has moved not even to the second, but the twenty-second plan. No one was interested in economic news, statements by representatives of the Fed and Christine Lagarde. And reports, there were practically none. We have repeatedly stated that the foreign exchange market ignores the military conflict in Europe for the time being. And when it became known about the Russian operation in Ukraine, the market could not stand it and collapse. And not only the foreign exchange market. The US dollar, which has the status of a world reserve currency, began to grow...

# Long-term perspective. The GBP/USD currency pair has fallen by 200 points during the current week. In principle, no one even has any doubts now about what exactly caused the collapse on Thursday. The British currency is considered less stable than the euro, especially after Brexit. Although over the past 14 months it has been the pound that has risen in price against the dollar more actively and has become cheaper more reluctantly, on Thursday, it collapsed down by 300 points. No macroeconomic statistics or fundamental events mattered to traders this week. And it should be noted that there were not many of them. Andrew Bailey's speech once again confirmed the Bank of England's readiness to raise the rate further to fight inflation. Business activity indices in the UK did not matter at all. The British pound began to decline on Tuesday as if anticipating a catastrophe. Thus, by and large, there are no macroeconomic factors for analysis now. And those that were not taken into...

# Long-term perspective. The EUR/USD currency pair has collapsed by 130 points during the current week. Moreover, the fall was much stronger, but on Friday, the market recovered a little and bought off some of the losses. Thus, only minus 130 points. In principle, there is nothing to discuss now. All week, the markets have been closely following the Ukraine-Russia conflict, as well as the reaction of the whole world to it. Macroeconomics has moved not even to the second, but the twenty-second plan. No one was interested in economic news, statements by representatives of the Fed and Christine Lagarde. And reports, there were practically none. We have repeatedly stated that the foreign exchange market ignores the military conflict in Europe for the time being. And when it became known about the Russian operation in Ukraine, the market could not stand it and collapse. And not only the foreign exchange market. The US dollar, which has the status of a world reserve currency, began to grow...

# The USD/JPY pair is dropping at the time of writing as the USD is punished by the DXY drop while the Yen is boosted by the Japanese Yen Futures growth. The pair is trading at 115.53 level at the time of writing. The currency pair is making a strong rally today, but it remains to see if it will stabilize above the broken resistance area. Fundamentally, the USD received a helping hand from the US economic data. As you already know, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment increased unexpectedly from 61.7 points to 62.8, Core PCE Price Index came in line with expectations, while the Durable Goods Orders and the Core Durable Goods Orders reported better than expected data. Also, Personal Spending and Personal Income beat expectations which could be good for the USD. USD/JPY Leg higher! As you can see on the h4 chart, the USD/JPY pair rallied after registering only a false breakdown through the confluence area formed at the intersection between the weekly pivot point of 115.21 with the medi...

# Gold is lower on the week  Gold  , like  crude oil  , is closing near unchanged/lower on the week despite mid week spikes on the back of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The spike high in yesterday's trading, saw the price move up to a high of $1974.40. That took the price to the highest level since September 2020. After trading to that high, the price settled yesterday at $1902.94. The current price is trading at $1892.50. A week ago on Friday, the price settled at $1898.23. Looking at the daily chart, the 50% midpoint of the range since reaching the all-time high price of $2075.14 back in August 2020 comes in at $1876.02. The low price for the week - which also was reached during yesterday's trade - reached $1878.25. That is near the high from November 2021 at $1877.15. If the selling continues in the new trading week, getting below that percent and swing high would tilt the bias more to the downside from a technical perspective. Like the price of crude, t...

# The survey results released on Friday, February 25th, revealed that consumer confidence in the United Kingdom plunged to the lowest levels throughout the pandemic period. Experts note that the British consumers express worried about galloping inflation, as well as higher taxes and interest rates. UK consumer confidence hits record lows About 2,000 people were surveyed in the period from 1 to 14 February. The GfK survey results showed that the consumer confidence index plunged to -26 in February from the previous month's reading of -19. The index hit the lowest level since last January when the British economy suffered from a harsh lockdown. "Fear about the impact of price rises from food to fuel and utilities, increased taxation and interest rate hikes has created a perfect storm of worries that has shaken consumer confidence", Joe Staton, the GfK client strategy director said. The worst sentiment of 2022 was noted in relation to personal finance and a broader econom...

# Gold plunged after reaching 1,974.48. It was traded at 1,898.64 at the time of writing. XAU/USD dropped by 4.05% from today's high of 1,974.48 to 1,894.48 daily low. Surprisingly or not, the yellow metal plunged despite the risk-off sentiment dominating the markets. Still, the sell-off could be only a temporary one. As you already know, the geopolitical tensions escalate, that's why the XAU/USD rallied in the last weeks. DXY's strong rally forced the price of gold to slip lower. At the time of writing, the Dollar Index retreated but the bias remains bullish. XAU/USD amazing sell-off As you can see on the H4 chart, XAU/USD found resistance at 1,959.40 - 1,965.57 zone. It has registered only a false breakout above it. Now, it has ignored the immediate downside obstacles. The ascending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) and the level of 1,877.14 could represent strong downside obstacles. It remains to see how it will react around these levels. XAU/USD prediction ...

# Crude oil moved up and then back down The price of WTI crude oil has tumbled back to the downside, erasing the gains seen starting yesterday ahead of the invasion of Ukraine. The last swing low nearly 24 hours ago bottomed at $91.27 before racing higher and peaking above $100 at $100.50. The price over the last 5 or so hours has seen a retracement all the way down to $91.43, just $0.16 from the low seen 1 day ago. The price is back trading just above $93.00 which is just above the 100 and 200 hour MA at $92.94 and $92.74 respectively. After all the volatility, the price is back at the neutral MA levels. In a way, it is the markets way of saying, "Let's restart and see what happens next?" Helping to push the price back down was chatter of a US strategic petroleum reserve release of 60-70M barrels. Recall in November, the US announced a 50M sale from the SPR. The price of oil did move down after that announcement over time from about $78.50 to $62.46 on December 2. ...

# The EUR/USD pair plunged as the Dollar Index rallied. As you already know, the USD appreciated aggressively amid geopolitical tensions. DXY's strong rally started yesterday forced the pair to drop. Fundamentally, the US data came in mixed today. The Unemployment Claims indicator was reported at 232K versus 233K expected, the Prelim GDP surged by 7.0% matching expectations, while the New Home Sales was dropped from 839K to 801K, failing to hit 800K estimates. In the short term, the greenback rallied but the geopolitical uncertainty could force the FED to hike its Federal Funds Rate by only 0.25% versus 50 bps expected in the last weeks. EUR/USD Massive Drop! As you can see on the h4 chart, the EUR/USD pair dropped as much as the 1.1106 level registering a new low. If you remember, I've talked about a deeper drop in my previous analysis. I've said that a valid breakdown below the median line (ML) and a new lower low could open the door for a larger downside movement. ...

# Gold plunged after reaching 1,974.48. It was traded at 1,898.64 at the time of writing. XAU/USD dropped by 4.05% from today's high of 1,974.48 to 1,894.48 daily low. Surprisingly or not, the yellow metal plunged despite the risk-off sentiment dominating the markets. Still, the sell-off could be only a temporary one. As you already know, the geopolitical tensions escalate, that's why the XAU/USD rallied in the last weeks. DXY's strong rally forced the price of gold to slip lower. At the time of writing, the Dollar Index retreated but the bias remains bullish. XAU/USD amazing sell-off As you can see on the H4 chart, XAU/USD found resistance at 1,959.40 - 1,965.57 zone. It has registered only a false breakout above it. Now, it has ignored the immediate downside obstacles. The ascending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) and the level of 1,877.14 could represent strong downside obstacles. It remains to see how it will react around these levels. XAU/USD prediction ...

# Crude oil moved up and then back down The price of WTI crude oil has tumbled back to the downside, erasing the gains seen starting yesterday ahead of the invasion of Ukraine. The last swing low nearly 24 hours ago bottomed at $91.27 before racing higher and peaking above $100 at $100.50. The price over the last 5 or so hours has seen a retracement all the way down to $91.43, just $0.16 from the low seen 1 day ago. The price is back trading just above $93.00 which is just above the 100 and 200 hour MA at $92.94 and $92.74 respectively. After all the volatility, the price is back at the neutral MA levels. In a way, it is the markets way of saying, "Let's restart and see what happens next?" Helping to push the price back down was chatter of a US strategic petroleum reserve release of 60-70M barrels. Recall in November, the US announced a 50M sale from the SPR. The price of oil did move down after that announcement over time from about $78.50 to $62.46 on December 2. ...

# Gold price yesterday back tested the broken upper triangle boundary around $1,840 and today price is bouncing. Technically trend remains in a bullish trend as price is making higher highs and higher lows. Price broke out and above the long-term triangle pattern and respecting the previous resistance which is now support, is key for the short-term future of the price. Red line -resistance (broken) now support Green line -long-term support Gold price is at a very important junction. Breaking above the red resistance trend line is an important bullish signal that has huge implications for the future. Continued respect of the green support trend line combined with a break above the red resistance, will lead to an even bigger rise in Gold price in the future. Trend remains bullish. Bulls will only lose control of the trend in case price breaks below the green support trend line. Until then, any pull back is considered a buying opportunity. Trading analysis offered by Complex Trader ...

# EURUSD has bounced off the 50% retracement and held above the key support at 1.13. Price has reached as high as 1.1395 earlier today but now it is at 1.1360. Price is vulnerable to a move towards 1.1310-1.1320 where we find the short-term upward sloping trend line. Red line- support Black lines -Fibonacci retracements EURUSD is vulnerable to a move towards the red support trend line. As long as price is above this trend line, bulls will have the upper hand. EURUSD can continue higher if a higher low is formed after the current pull back. Forming higher highs and higher lows is needed in order for price to eventually break above the 1.1495 high towards 1.17. Forming a major higher low for a new upward move is a scenario that we talked about in previous posts and still very likely. Trading analysis offered by Complex Trader - a RobotFX partner. Source #RobotFX Team

# is exhibiting a bullish tone as it approaches the 116.00 handle after the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) defused sellers’ attempts to steer the pair lower. The soaring SMAs are shielding the broader ascent in the pair. Additionally, the short-term oscillators suggest that upside momentum is growing. The MACD is holding above its red signal line in the positive section, while the RSI is creeping higher in the bullish zone. Furthermore, the uptick in the stochastic %K line is promoting more advances in the pair. To the upside, the fortified 116.00-116.34 resistance ceiling could delay price gains from gaining pace. However, if this barrier fails to keep growing bullish pressures at bay, the 116.87 and 117.53 highs, identified in the first half of January 2017, could come under attack. Should a more profound up move evolve, the 118.17-118.66 tough barricade, shaped over early November until mid-December 2016 that includes a double top formation, may be challenged. Othe...

# USDJPY is trading around 115.55. Price has managed to retrace 61.8% of the recent decline from 116.36 to 115.03. Price seems vulnerable to the downside as the recent high looks like a failed attempt to break above 116 again. Red lines - Fibonacci extension targets At current levels we prefer to be bearish USDJPY looking for a move towards 115 and lower. Resistance is at 115.80-115.90. As long as price is below this level we remain bearish short-term. First target is at 115 and second target at 114.60. If bulls manage to recapture 116-115.90 then our bearish short-term scenario gets cancelled. Trading analysis offered by Complex Trader - a RobotFX partner. Source #RobotFX Team

# is currently bearish (but in a pullback) at the time of this post. We are currently at 1.5958 in a descending wedge (bearish) in a range. We are looking for an initial move to the ATR target at the 1.5750 area. Watch the for any change in direction. The ATR for the pair currently is 140 pips per day and its 180-day average is 123 pips per day. EUR/AUD 4-hour price chart. Trading analysis offered by Complex Trader - a RobotFX partner. Source #RobotFX Team

# The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is poised to raise interest rates for a third time next week. But will it pull the 50 basis points trigger this time, setting a precedent for other central banks? In a week where PCE inflation numbers will be in focus in the United States, the RBNZ’s actions could have rippling effects for Fed policy speculation. Elsewhere, the flash PMI readings for February will be the centre of attention as consumers face a growing spending squeeze from spiralling inflation just as Omicron restrictions are being lifted in many places.Will the RBNZ get the 50bps ball rolling? New Zealand’s central bank got an early start on rate hikes, raising the official cash rate consecutively at the October and November meetings. It’s widely anticipated to become three in-a-row when policymakers meet on Wednesday. However, what’s not a done deal is whether they will opt for 25 or 50 bps. Inflationary pressures are brewing in New Zealand amid red-hot hot property and labour marke...

# GBPUSD tests 61.8% and swing area The GBPUSD is in an up and down day. The    GBPUSD  moved higher earlier. That move was helped by better than expected retail sales. However the high price today stalled near the high price from last week near 1.3643, and rotated back lower on the USD buying. The subsequent move lower now has the price back toward the 61.8% retracement along with a swing area between 1.35969 and 1.36034. As I type, the price has dipped below that swing area. What next? If the price can stay below the 1.36034 area, that would be the best case scenario for the sellers with the next major targets coming in at the 100 hour moving average 1.3569 (blue line), and the 200 hour moving average at 1.35609 (green line). The 50% midpoint of the 2022 trading range is just below those levels at 1.35526 and would be a another target on further weakness. A move back above 1.36034 with momentum would have traders looking again toward 1.3618 to 1.36271 and then t...

# As long as the financial markets continue to play Russian roulette, EURUSD bulls cannot take advantage of the trump card that Christine Lagarde gave them after the February meeting of the ECB. And even though Lagarde, after her historic speech at a press conference, has already spoken several times about patience, investors cannot be deceived. They sensed the hawkish shift of the European Central Bank and are ready to buy the euro. Alas, but so far the "bulls" on the main currency pair are hindered by events in Eastern Europe. Despite the fact that the share of Russian exports and imports in the structure of foreign trade of the eurozone is negligible, the currency bloc and Europe as a whole are highly dependent on gas supplies from this country. At the same time, the start of hostilities in Ukraine should be regarded as a double-edged sword for the euro. On the one hand, the higher the cost of blue fuel rises, the stronger the energy crisis will hit the economy of the cur...

# Technical analysis: Gold has been trading upside this morning but I see potential for the downside correction towards lower references. Trading recommendation: Due to potential overbought condition and extreme high reading, I see potential for the downside correction and rotation. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the downside objectives at $1,886 and $1,879. Resistance is set at the price of $1,901 Trading analysis offered by Complex Trader - a RobotFX partner. Source #RobotFX Team

# Trading analysis offered by Complex Trader - a RobotFX partner. Source #RobotFX Team

# U.S. stock index futures tumbled Thursday as investors took advantage of the technical failure of the instrument's inability to break above $4,480 after digesting corporate profit and loss reports, Federal Reserve news, and developments in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 161 points, or 0.46%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.63%. Yesterday, quite a lot of corporate reports were published, which indirectly only influenced the direction of the market. DoorDash rose more than 26% today in premarket trading after the company announced revenue growth and issued an upbeat outlook. Cisco rose 3.5% after the company raised its forecast and Applied Materials added 2%. Today, investors are waiting for quarterly reports from Walmart, Airbus, Autonation, and Nestle. Attention should be paid today to weekly data on jobless claims in the U.S. Economists estimate that claims for benefits could reach 218,0...

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# Technical analysis: GBP/USD has been trading upside today with good momentum. I see potential for the upside continuation. Trading recommendation: Due to strong rejection of the rising trend-line in the background, I see potential for the upside continuation towards upper references. Watch for buying opportunities on the pullbacks using intraday charts. Upside objectives are set at 1,3660 and 1,3745. Support level is set at 1,3560 Trading analysis offered by Complex Trader - a RobotFX partner. Source #RobotFX Team

# The EUR/USD pair closed above 1.1357, the 161.8% retracement level, on Wednesday. Today, the activity of traders is minimal, despite the rather important and strong informational background yesterday. In particular, the U.S. retail trade report and the minutes of the FOMC meeting were released. However, neither of these had any effect on the mood of traders. It is also almost impossible now to say in which direction traders will continue to trade and who will have an advantage. There are no corridors on the hourly chart, and the 4-hour chart is in sideways. Thus, neither geopolitics nor economic news can force traders to trade. Unfortunately, geopolitics does not grab the interest of traders. And it seems to me that the silence in the markets is just related to it. Traders simply do not want to risk the situation when it is completely unclear how the Ukrainian-Russian conflict will end. This morning, news began to come from Donbass about battles between militants of the unrecogni...

# Gold price yesterday back tested the broken upper triangle boundary around $1,840 and today price is bouncing. Technically trend remains in a bullish trend as price is making higher highs and higher lows. Price broke out and above the long-term triangle pattern and respecting the previous resistance which is now support, is key for the short-term future of the price. Red line -resistance (broken) now support Green line -long-term support Gold price is at a very important junction. Breaking above the red resistance trend line is an important bullish signal that has huge implications for the future. Continued respect of the green support trend line combined with a break above the red resistance, will lead to an even bigger rise in Gold price in the future. Trend remains bullish. Bulls will only lose control of the trend in case price breaks below the green support trend line. Until then, any pull back is considered a buying opportunity. Trading analysis offered by Complex Trader ...

# EURUSD has bounced off the 50% retracement and held above the key support at 1.13. Price has reached as high as 1.1395 earlier today but now it is at 1.1360. Price is vulnerable to a move towards 1.1310-1.1320 where we find the short-term upward sloping trend line. Red line- support Black lines -Fibonacci retracements EURUSD is vulnerable to a move towards the red support trend line. As long as price is above this trend line, bulls will have the upper hand. EURUSD can continue higher if a higher low is formed after the current pull back. Forming higher highs and higher lows is needed in order for price to eventually break above the 1.1495 high towards 1.17. Forming a major higher low for a new upward move is a scenario that we talked about in previous posts and still very likely. Trading analysis offered by Complex Trader - a RobotFX partner. Source #RobotFX Team