Stuart's FX analysis

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need: Several unsuccessful attempts to pull up the pound, after yesterday’s report on the reduction in GDP and a decrease in the volume of net loans, led to the return of sellers to the market. However, it was also not possible to break below the low of last week in the region of 1.2275. Only the formation of another false breakdown at this level will lead to an upward correction of the pair to the area of the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.2326, consolidating above which will strengthen the demand for GBP/USD, which will update resistance at 1.2364, where I recommend taking profits. If the level of 1.2275 is still broken on the UK manufacturing activity data, it is best to consider new purchases in GBP/USD after updating the lows near 1.2238 and 1.2165. To open short positions on GBP/USD you need: The bears were able to protect the level of 1.2326, which I paid attention to yesterday throughout the day. However, it will be possible to ...

Crypto Industry News: The Venezuelan central bank is investigating the storage options for Bitcoins and Ethereum, according to anonymous sources that supposedly have direct insight into this matter. According to financial media articles, the central bank of Venezuela is taking a closer look at whether it has the ability to store cryptocurrencies. The state-owned oil and gas company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PSDV) asked the central bank to investigate the case after the oil producer encountered difficulties in receiving payments from international clients due to US sanctions against the current Venezuelan regime of President Venezuela Nicolas Maduro. Anonymous sources have stated that PSDV wants to transfer Bitcoin and Ethereum to the Venezuelan central bank and then instruct the central institution to pay cryptocurrency suppliers. In the hope of overcoming isolation from the global financial system, the Venezuelan central bank is reportedly analyzing proposals in which cryptocurre...

Technical Market Overview: The GBP/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range located between the levels of 1.2342 - 1.2268 after moving towards the level of 50% Fibonacci retracement. The bounce from this level was rather shallow, so the price is still under the bearish pressure and the market is trading below the trendline. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and if violated, then the bears might push the prices towards the 61% Fibonacci located at the level of 1.2195. Please notice, the market conditions are now extremely oversold and the RSI is showing a negative and weak momentum, so the bounce might occur any time soon. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2628 WR2 - 1.2566 WR1 - 1.2402 Weekly Pivot - 1.2333 WS1 - 1.2163 WS2 - 1.2096 WS3 - 1.1935 Trading Recommendations: The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend...

Technical Market Overview: The newest lower low on EUR/USD market was made at the level of 1.0885. The bulls are trying to bounce, but so far they were capped by the nearest technical resistance located at the level of 1.0964. The short-term and long-term trend is still down, but due to the extremely oversold market conditions, the bulls still have a chance for a move towards the level of 1.0964 and higher towards the level of 1.0978. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0817. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.1116 WR2 - 1.1087 WR1 - 1.0996 Weekly Pivot - 1.0951 WS1 - 1.0872 WS2 - 1.0826 WS3 - 1.0757 Trading Recommendations: The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes...

To open long positions on EURUSD you need: Yesterday, buyers missed the next support level of 1.0905, a return to which will be a priority for today. However, much will depend on the release of reports on production activity in the eurozone countries, especially Germany, as well as data on inflation in the eurozone. With weak reports, EUR/USD buyers can only count on the support level of 1.0873 and on the formation of a false breakdown there, however, it is best to open long positions immediately for a rebound from a low of 1.0804. If the reports come out fairly positive, then a break and consolidation above the resistance of 1.0905 will lead to a larger upward correction to the area of highs of 1.0930 and 1.0958, where I recommend taking profits. To open short positions on EURUSD you need: Production activity in the eurozone countries will continue to be rather weak amid trade conflicts, so today’s reports may allow euro sellers to continue the current downward trend. The formation...

We expect minor resistance at 133.23 will be able to protect the upside for renewed downside pressure through key-support at 132.10 for a final dip to 130.78 to complete red wave ii and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in red wave iii for a rally towards 139.20. Only a direct break above resistance at 134.61 will indicate that red wave ii completed early and red wave iii already is developing. R3: 133.68 R2: 133.51 R1: 133.28 Pivot: 132.92 S1: 132.56 S2: 132.10 S3: 131.96 Trading recommendation: We are looking for a buying-opportunity at 131.25 or upon a break above 134.61 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 1 - 2019

EUR/JPY dipped to a low of 117.55 before turning higher. We are now looking for a re-test of short-term key-resistance at 118.56 and a break above here will confirm wave ii has completed and wave iii higher to at least 121.93 is developing. Only a break below 117.43 will indicate that wave ii still is in motion but the potential downside should be limited to the 117.14 - 117.28 area. R3: 118.79 R2: 118.56 R1: 118.20 Pivot: 118.03 S1: 117.91 S2: 117.73 S3: 117.55 Trading recommendation: We bought EUR at 117.92 and have our stop placed at 117.40. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 1 - 2019

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. The US will also publish the economic data such as Wards Total Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY’S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.0956. Strong Resistance: 1.0946. Original Resistance: 1.0935. Inner Sell Area: 1.0924. Target Inner Area: 1.0899. Inner Buy Area: 1.0874. Original Support: 1.0863. Strong Support: 1.0852. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0846. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, October 01, 2019

In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI, Tankan Manufacturing Index, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Rate. The US will also publish some economic data such as Wards Total Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY’S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 108.75. Resistance. 2: 108.54. Resistance. 1: 108.33. Support. 1: 108.05. Support. 2: 107.84. Support. 3: 107.63. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, October 01, 2019

On the first trading day of the week, the USD/JPY bears again tried to enter the 107th figure, against the backdrop of a surge in anti-risk sentiment in the foreign exchange market. However, sellers could not resist in this price area for several hours: the general strengthening of the dollar pushes the pair up to new local highs. The dollar index confidently broke through the level of 99 points, currently reaching 99.132 points. The last time the indicator was in this area was back in April 2017 - at a time when the Federal Reserve nearly raised the interest rate at each of its meetings - in total, the regulator increased it from 12% to 1.5% over the 12 months, announcing further steps in this direction. The growth of the US currency in the context of tightening monetary policy is quite understandable, but at the moment the greenback is growing only on emotions, reacting to loud statements by politicians regarding the prospects of the impeachment procedure. The dollar also follows th...

EUR/USD The euro fell by 38 points on Monday. The readings of technical indicators have become even more bearish. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator penetrates deeper into the negative trend zone. The target range is the gap from the price channel line to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% - 1.0806/44. Consolidating the price below it opens the second target at 1.0710 - the low of January 2016. On a four-hour chart, the signal line simultaneously develops in two conflicting patterns; a convergence reversal formation is formed, but within the framework of a simple rectangle. In this case, both signals lose power. In the evening, ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released in the September assessment - the forecast is 50.4 versus 49.1 in August, and an increase can also be shown for construction costs in August - the forecast is 0.5% against 0.1% earlier. We look forward to further weakening of the euro. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via For...

GBP/USD On Monday, the pound briefly rose to the Fibonacci level of 200.0% (daily chart) and pulled back to Friday’s low. At the same time, the Marlin indicator plunged into the negative trend zone. The previously defined goals for Fibonacci retracement remain: 1.2230 - reaction level 223.6%, 1.2150 - reaction level 238.2% near the embedded price channel line. Weak convergence on yesterday’s price growth worked on the four-hour chart. With the price overcoming the low of Friday (1.2270), we look forward to a further decline to the designated target levels. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Forecast for GBP/USD on October 1,2019

AUD / USD The Reserve Bank of Australia may lower the rate from 1.00% to 0.75% today at 4:30 London time. In anticipation of this, the Australian dollar is declining for the second day in a row. On the daily chart, the price has consolidated below the red balance indicator line. The Marlin indicator on daily after a reversal from the boundary with the growth territory continues to decline. The immediate goal of the decline is the embedded line of the red price channel 0.6665, behind it is the line of the blue price channel with the target mark of 0.6588. On a four-hour chart, the price is developing in a downward trend below the balance line. The Marlin oscillator in the negative trend territory. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Forecast for AUD/USD on October 1, 2019

In anticipation of Brexit - what could be on October 2019 with the movement #USDX , EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY s - a comprehensive analysis (the proportion of these instruments in calculating the dollar index is 83.1%) Minor operational scale (Daily time frame) ____________________ US dollar Index On October 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range : resistance level of 99.46 (local maximum); support level of 99.10 (control line UTL Minor operational scale fork). In case of updating the local maximum 99.46, the upward movement of the dollar index can continue to the goals - control line UTL Minuette (99.65) - warning lines - UWL38.2 (99.85) - UWL61.8 (100.35) - UWL100.0 (101.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork. If #USDX would be below the reference line UTL (support level of 99.10) Minor operational scale fork, then it will be possible to develop a downward movement of the ...

Forecast for October 1: Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1: For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0966, 1.0940, 1.0918, 1.0880, 1.0839, 1.0811 and 1.0761. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the descending structure of September 13. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.0880. In this case, the target is 1.0839. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.0839 - 1.0811. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0761. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.0918 - 1.0940. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.0966. This level is a key support for the bottom. The main trend is the descending structure of September 13. Trading recommendations: Buy: 1.0918 Take profit: 1.0940 Buy 1.0...

Minor operational scale (H4) What is October preparing for us? A comprehensive analysis of the development of the movement AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX on October 2019 at the Minor operational scale ( Daily timeframe ). ____________________ US dollar Index On October 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range : resistance level of 99.46 (local maximum); support level of 99.10 (control line UTL Minor operational scale fork). In case of updating the local maximum 99.46, the upward movement of the dollar index can continue to the goals - control line UTL Minuette (99.65) - warning lines - UWL38.2 (99.85) - UWL61.8 (100.35) - UWL100.0 (101.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork. On the contrary, if #USDX would be below the reference line UTL (support level of 99.10) Minor operational scale fork, then it will be possible to develop a downward movement of the instrument to the...

4-hour timeframe Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 78p - 88p - 150p - 78p - 66p. Average volatility over the past 5 days: 92p (high). At first glance, GDP in the UK showed a positive trend in the second quarter of 2019, as the annual rate was +1.3% with a forecast value of +1.2% and the same value in the first quarter. However, a quarterly decrease was recorded by 0.2%. Thus, in comparison with the first quarter of 2019, we have precisely a decline in GDP. Accordingly, this is a bearish factor for the pound/dollar pair. However, traders refrained from new sales of the currency pair today. Throughout the day there was a slight upward correction, which is purely technical in nature. No important macroeconomic information has come from the United States today. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson apologized to Queen Elizabeth II, who approved his request to suspend Parliament. In fact, this is an absolutely unprecedented case when the Supreme Court repeals the decision of the Queen of Gre...

4-hour timeframe Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 60p - 40p - 84p - 59p - 54p. Average volatility over the past 5 days: 59p (average). The skepticism of traders regarding the prospects for the European currency rolls over. During the first trading day of the new week and the last day of September, not a single truly important macroeconomic report was published either in Europe or in the US. It is unlikely that the preliminary value of inflation for September in Germany can be regarded as an important report. Nevertheless, traders drew attention to inflation slowing down to 1.2% in Germany, did not pay attention to the declining unemployment rate in the eurozone in August to 7.4%, and considered the report on retail sales in Germany to be important, showing an increase in August of +3 , 2% y/y, with a forecast of +3.3% and a past value of +4.4%. As we have repeatedly said, inflation in Germany is most interesting only as a more accurate forecast of inflation in the European ...

The euro-dollar pair today resumed the downward movement and for the first time since 2017 tested the eighth figure. And although on Friday, the EUR/USD bulls were able to win a few dozen points from the bears, corrective growth did not continue today. Political events in the US continue to support the dollar, which is temporarily used by the market as a defensive tool. The European currency is also going through “troubled times” - in anticipation of the release of data on inflation growth in the eurozone, rather weak figures of German inflation were published today. This is a very “wake-up call”, which portends the further easing of monetary policy by the ECB. Such a “black and white” fundamental background opens the way for the EUR/USD bears to the area of the eighth figure, and to be more precise, to the level of 1.0820 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart). And although this is the lower limit of the new price range (after the bears overcome the su...

Despite the fact that gold continues to recede from three-month highs amid weakening demand for safe haven assets, the long-term trend in precious metals is upward, as the world is entering a period of global instability. There are plenty of reasons for this; we will name some of them: 1. The long-term struggle for world leadership between the United States and China, due to the fact that the economic and financial potential of China is growing at a faster pace in relation to America. 2. Another exacerbation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, fraught with a major regional war. This scenario may come true in the coming years. 3. The huge volume of debt obligations (public and private), the size of which in relation to the size of the economies of leading countries makes it impossible to repay them in any future. Debts can only be discounted through devaluation and hyperinflation. Even these reasons may be enough to create a “perfect storm” on the gold market, which will ...

Today’s data on a decrease in unemployment in the eurozone did not support the euro, while a report on a decrease in inflation in Italy and Germany disappointed investors. Weak inflation is another reason for the European Central Bank to think about lowering interest rates in the future. The British pound ignored data on a reduction in economic growth, which could lead to an upward correction of the pair in the near future, as there were clearly fewer people wishing to sell at current levels than in the middle of last week. According to the data, the preliminary harmonized by EU standards consumer price index in Spain in September this year grew by only 0.2% compared to September 2018 after rising by 0.4% in August this year. On a monthly basis, inflation showed a decline. Economists forecast that Spain’s preliminary harmonized HCPI CPI in September was 0.3% per annum. As I noted above, Italy’s consumer price index also put pressure on the euro, as it fell by 0.5% in September this ...

Trend analysis. This week, after testing the target level of 161.8%, the price will try to start moving upwards in a pullback with the first target of 1.0978 – a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Complex analysis: - Indicator analysis – up; - Fibonacci levels – up; - Volumes – up; - Candlestick analysis – neutral; - Trend analysis – down; - Bollinger Bands – down; - Monthly chart – up. The conclusion of the complex analysis – an upward movement. The total result of calculating the candle of the EUR/USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price for weeks is more likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candlestick (Monday – up) and the presence of the second upper shadow (Friday – down). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Technical analysis for the EUR/USD currency pair for the week from September 30 to October 5

Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, the price will move up with the first target of 1.2317 - a pullback level of 14.6% (red dashed line). The price, in case of breaking through, can continue to move up with the target of 1.2345 - a pullback level of 23.6% (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: - indicator analysis - up; - Fibonacci levels - up; - volumes - up; - candlestick analysis - up; - trend analysis - down; - Bollinger Lines - down; - weekly schedule - up. General conclusion: On Monday, the price will start moving up. An unlikely scenario is a downward movement, with the first target of 1.2198 - a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dashed line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 30, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, the price may continue to move down with the target at 1.0906 - the lower fractal. 161.8% (red dashed line). Intermediate points where pullbacks are possible, means additional entry points down 1.0920 - the target level is 161.8% (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: - indicator analysis - down; - Fibonacci levels - down; - volumes - down; - candlestick analysis - up; - trend analysis - down; - Bollinger Lines - up; - weekly schedule - down. General conclusion: On Monday, a downward movement is possible. An unlikely scenario is an upward movement with the target at 1.0969 - an upper fractal. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com via Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 30, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need: Pound buyers tried to return to the market, but nothing came of it. The entire focus in the morning will be shifted to UK GDP data, as a weak report will lead to a further downward trend. The bulls will try to form another false breakdown in the support area of 1.2284, which will be the first signal to open long positions in GBP/USD, however, a more important goal will be to break the resistance of 1.2323, which will lead to an upward correction to the area of a high of 1.2364, where I recommend taking profit. If fundamental statistics disappoint traders, then it is best to consider new purchases in GBP/USD after updating the lows near 1.2238 and 1.2165. To open short positions on GBP/USD you need: Sellers are not yet experiencing serious problems and continue to “bend” their line. A break of the low of 1.2284, which may coincide with the release of weak fundamental statistics on the growth of the UK economy, will lead to a further decreas...

To open long positions on EURUSD you need: Further growth of the European currency will directly depend today on a number of fundamental statistics that are published for the countries of the eurozone. Particular attention was on the report on the unemployment rate in the eurozone and the German consumer price index. An important task of the bulls will be the retention and formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.0930, since only after this we can talk about maintaining the upward correction. However, a more important goal will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.0958, which will lead to continued growth and updating the high of 1.0988, where I recommend taking profits. In case of weak fundamental data, it is best to expect buyers to return to the market after updating a low of 1.0905, or on a rebound from a larger support of 1.0873. To open short positions on EURUSD you need: Sellers should push EUR/USD below the support of 1.0930, which will...

Crypto Industry News: Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), shared his views on stablecoins, the future of cryptographic assets and the possible digital form of the euro. In a letter to European Parliament Member Eva Kaili, the President of the ECB noted that the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) closely monitors developments in the cryptocurrency industry. “The ESCB is analyzing crypto-assets and stablecoins to understand their potential implications for monetary policy, payment security and efficiency and market infrastructure, and financial system stability,” he added. Despite a positive approach to new technologies, Draghi apparently believes that stablecoins and cryptocurrencies are generally of little value. “So far, stablecoins and crypto assets have had limited applications in these areas and have not been designed in a way that makes them suitable money substitutes,” he said. Draghi added that due to continuous technological innovation and rap...

Crypto Industry News: The Emsisoft software company has released a bug fix for Bitcoin malware - WannaCryFake. Free software announced in the blog post will help you recover encrypted files without causing data loss. Unlike cryptocurrency mining exploits, ransomware is dependent on forcing you to get loot. According to a McAfee report, ransomware attacks increased by 118 percent in 2019, representing 504 new threats per minute. WannaCryFake is a variant of the infamous WannaCry ransomware that attacks Microsoft computers in 2017. Locks victim files using AES-256 or the advanced encryption standard. The BTC/USD pair is still trading close to the recent lows at the level of $7,676 after the weekend. The trading conditions on Saturday and Sunday were not in favor of bulls as the bounce from the last local low as shallow with a high at the level of $8,238. There is still a chance for the wave © termination soon, but is the bears will keep making pressure on bulls then the next target i...