Stuart's FX analysis

# The most significant and fascinating report today concerned inflation in the European Union. I had more of a tendency to think that the slowdown would be negligible or nonexistent. The ECB rate has only gone up by 2% so far, and when compared to rates in the US or UK, inflation did not even consider declining. A consumer price index decline might be brought on by specific market or seasonal factors, and we might witness another acceleration the following month. I want to draw attention to how much the cost of the same oil has decreased in recent weeks. Prices could stop rising if they became less expensive because oil would become more affordable on global markets. The fact that core inflation has not decreased at all partially supports my hypothesis. If the EU experiences a new decline in inflation in December, we can infer that the period of the inflation rate's reversal movement to 2% has begun. It is still too soon to make such judgments. As for the euro and its prospects, I...

# Previously, the GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the lower limit of the channel around 1.3000 which failed to hold prices above. Shortly after, a new daily low was established around 1.2150 which was bypassed few days after. However, considerable support zone existed around 1.1850-1.1900 which has prevented further bearish decline for sometime. However, as bullish momentum started to fade away, more bearish visits were expected to challenge these historical low levels. Shortly after, Quick bearish decline was executed towards 1.1075 & 1.0860 where significant Fibonacci Expansion levels were located. Based on the upcoming price action and the next weekly candlestick closure, the next target level for the GBP/USD pair can be determined. Further bullish continuation above 1.1765 was expected in previous articles specially after the newly-established ascending bottoms around 1.1150 and 1.1750 remain defended by the bulls. The next key-level to be visi...

# Red lines- bearish RSI divergence EURUSD is trading around 1.0411 while earlier today price was making new short-term higher highs around 1.0497. but after ECB President's Lagarde speech, selling pressures have pushed the pair towards 1.04. Short-term trend remains bullish but we have seen several bearish RSI divergence signals that should not be ignored. Price continues making higher highs and higher lows but bulls need to be cautious. The up trend is weakening according to the RSI and we could soon see a deeper pull back. Short-term support is at 1.0342. A break below this level will confirm the short-term trend reversal. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# The wave marking on the euro/dollar instrument's 4-hour chart is convincing. The upward portion of the trend has corrected itself. Initially, I believed three waves would develop, but it is now abundantly clear that there are five waves. As a result, the waves a, b, c, d, and e have a complex correction structure. If this supposition is accurate, the building of this structure may have already been finished since the peak of wave e is higher than the peak of wave C. In this instance, it is anticipated that we will construct at least three waves downward, but if the most recent phase of the trend is corrective, the subsequent phase will probably be impulsive. Therefore, I am preparing for a new significant decline in the instrument. The market will be ready to sell when a further attempt to breach the 1.0359 level, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibonacci, is successful. The peak of the anticipated wave e was still present, so removing quotes from the lows this week did not violate ...

# Long-term outlook. This week, the EUR/USD currency pair has again been trading higher. This week, the macroeconomic and fundamental background was nonexistent, but traders still bought euros. Similar trends have been observed since the start of this year, but the dollar's value was rising steadily back then. Additionally, there were valid justifications and grounds for this in the case of the US dollar. It isn't easy to pinpoint the causes of the euro currency's increase. The issue is that specific explanations can be discovered. Technical is the least interesting. Given that the downward trend lasted for two years, we can now see a straightforward technical correction without the help of significant fundamentals. Short positions are profited from by traders, which causes the pair to rise. The assumption that the Fed's growth rate will slow down and the ECB will continue to tighten monetary policy at the fastest possible rate is another reason the euro's value ...

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# The cryptocurrency market has historically been cyclical. Cycles were formed around Bitcoin halving. Halving occurs every time 210,000 blocks are mined. It happens about every four years. The most recent halvings occurred in 2012, 2016 and 2020. In between halvings, the bull market is replaced by a bear market. Given the transparent nature of most blockchain networks, it is possible to look at the on-chain data to identify patterns and similarities between the current period and previous cycles. Bearish Cycle Bottoming Indicators On-chain analysts, based on data from Glassnode, are looking at several potential bear market bottom signals. One metric is the supply profit and loss range, which shows the total supply of BTC in both profit and loss. The values represent unrealized profit and loss since the data tracks the value of the price at the time the coins were acquired through trading or mining. The lines showing the dynamics of these two indicators recently converged for t...

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# As noted in our recent review, if the publication of US inflation data disappoints investors, it will provoke a new wave of dollar sell-offs and a drop in DXY towards 109.00. At that time, DXY futures were trading near 110.46. A deeper drop of the DXY was due up to the key support levels 107.40 and 105.65. The price went exactly under this scenario, breaking through the bottom of the downward channel on the DXY chart at 109.00 and reaching a local low of 105.15 in the next three days. Today, the dollar index (CFD #USDX in the MT4 trading terminal) is trading in close proximity to the key support level of 105.65 (200 EMA on the daily CFD #USDX chart). Economists suggest that the local support level 105.00 should hold. If that is true, the current levels are almost ideal entry points into long positions, counting on a rebound from support at 105.65. An increase above the resistance level of 107.25 (144 EMA on the daily chart and 200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) and 107.82 (local resi...

# The most crucial level of $ 18,500 and its "duplicate" level of $ 17,582 have both been overcome by bitcoin, as seen on the 4-hour TF. The technical foundation is now in place for additional cryptocurrency sales. We haven't noticed any new collapses, even though the fundamental background of "bitcoin" is still a failure. As we previously stated, bitcoin may remain flat for several weeks or even months after another decline. In theory, this is what we are experiencing right now. The cryptocurrency has been trading between this price and $17,200 for the past two weeks after dropping to $15,600. Therefore, we will not be surprised at all if a narrow sidewall forms in the near future. At the same time, we fully anticipate that cryptocurrency will soon start to decline again. As it turned out, the insolvent FTX is partly responsible for Genesis' liquidity issues. The Alameda venture fund, closely associated with FTX, borrowed $1.6 billion from Genesis in Sept...

# 100 hour MA at 1.33759. The low reached 1.3382. USDCAD falls to the 100 hour MA The USDCAD moved to a new session low and in the process, sniffed the rising 100 hour MA at 1.33759. The low price got with 7 pips of the MA level at 1.3382 and bounced. The price is trading at 1.33972. The price of the USDCAD moved sharply higher on Friday and Monday, helped by tumbling oil prices. Yesterday oil fell to a low near the end of 2021 level at $75.30 and found dip buyers. The catalyst were reports that the Saudi' and OPEC were mulling a production code a 500K at the December meeting. That was later denied by Saudi officials, and the price of oil shot back to the upside. That led to a move back lower and the USDCAD. Today that decline has continued. Crude oil prices are also higher trading at $81.55 currently. The price settle at $79.73 yesterday. It would take a move below the 100 hour MA to increase the bearish bias for the pair going forward. Watch 1.34078 as a potential t...

# Goldman Sachs said investors hoping for a better year in 2023 will be disappointed as the bear market phase is not over. According to strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer and Sharon Bell, conditions, which typically correspond to stock lows, have not been reached. They said peak interest rates and lower valuations reflecting the recession are needed before any sustained stock market recovery can occur. To estimate, the S&P 500 is likely to end 2023 at 4,000 index points, which is 0.9% above Friday's closing level. Meanwhile, the Stoxx Europe 600 will finish next year about 4% higher, at 450 index points. Strategists at Barclays, led by Emmanuel Kau, said the road to get there would be "difficult." The comments came after stocks rallied, thanks to softer inflation data in the US and news of loosening Covid restrictions in China. The sharp rebound from mid-October followed a turbulent year for global markets as central banks undertook aggressive rate hikes to tam...

# New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) Forecast: Mixed Recommended by Richard Snow Trading Forex News: The Strategy Get My Guide The reasoning for the mixed outlook for the New Zealand dollar is due to the massively important Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision on Wednesday, which could offer up a surprise via the actual rate or the forward guidance, leading to an appropriate repositioning in the currency. Market implied probabilities assign a roughly 50/50 chance of a 75 bps and 50 bps rate hike, respectively - adding further to the uncertain outlook. NZD/USD Weekly Chart RBNZ Preview: Wage Growth and Stubborn Inflation Puts 75 bps on the Table After last month’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Q3 inflation proved to be way hotter than expected coming in at 7.2% versus forecasts of 6.6%, unemployment remained tight at 3.3% and wage growth rose 2.6% QoQ. This would suggest that a 75-basis point hike appears likely. However, a deteriorating economic backdrop ...

# The Canadian dollar is trading quietly on Friday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3337 in the European session, up 0.09%. RMPI, IPPI Inflation Indicators Next Inflation was in the spotlight this week, as Canada released the CPI report for October. CPI climbed 6.9% YoY and rose 0.7% MoM, with both readings matching the consensus. However, the Bank of Canada’s measures for core inflation rose slightly. The data will do little to help the Bank of Canada in its deliberations ahead of a rate meeting on December 7th. The markets have priced in a 25-bp hike, with a 35% of a larger increase. The BoC has been tightening rates at full speed, raising the benchmark rates by some 350 basis points since March to 3.75%. Inflation is the BoC’s number one priority, but policy makers are on the lookout for an indication that inflation has peaked, which would provide the green light to ease the pace of tightening. Today’s inflation releases, the Raw Materials Price Index and Industrial Product Price Index,...

# The EUR/USD currency pair fell 100-150 points on Tuesday evening. However, on Wednesday, it fully recovered these losses. Thus, it remains above the moving average line, and most technical indicators indicate an upward trend. Therefore, we recommend trading for an increase in the near future until sell signals begin to appear. And those may begin to appear, and there are several reasons for this. First, the current growth can be called a good correction, but on the 24-hour TF, the movement still looks sluggish and weak. Of course, it may still need to be completed. Then sooner or later, it can become an independent trend. However, this has yet to happen. Second, the fundamental background is not so bad for the US currency now that it falls non-stop. Yes, the Fed has made it clear that it will begin to slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening, but it has already been tightened much more than in the European Union or the UK. And, most likely, everything will remain that way, ...

# Oil steadies after strikes in Poland Oil prices are softer on Wednesday after a brief bout of volatility late Tuesday following reports of missile strikes in Poland. That unsurprisingly jolted financial markets, sending oil prices higher initially, but that quickly settled and crude prices are now back where they were before. It goes without saying that any significant escalation in the war in Ukraine will likely add a substantial risk premium to oil prices, with Russia being a major producer and exporter, as well as one of the leaders in the OPEC+ alliance. A strike on a NATO member is an extreme example of that and could send oil markets into a frenzy. Thankfully, the worst fears haven’t been realised but investigations are still taking place which will keep oil traders on edge. Gold battling resistance Gold is struggling to take the next step higher after struggling around $1,780 once again today. That’s not overly surprising considering this was a major level of support from...

# Previously, the GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the lower limit of the channel around 1.3000 which failed to hold prices above. Shortly after, a new daily low was established around 1.2150 which was bypassed few days after. However, considerable support zone existed around 1.1850-1.1900 which has prevented further bearish decline for sometime. However, as bullish momentum started to fade away, more bearish visits were expected to challenge these historical low levels. Shortly after, Quick bearish decline was executed towards 1.1075 & 1.0860 where significant Fibonacci Expansion levels were located. Based on the upcoming price action and the next weekly candlestick closure, the next target level for the GBP/USD pair can be determined. Further bullish continuation abov 1.1765 was expected in previous articles specially after the newly-established ascending bottoms around 1.1000 and 1.1150 had remained defended by the bulls. on the other hand, anoth...

# The British pound has started the week with considerable losses. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1733, down 0.83%. US dollar claws back It was a week to forget for the US dollar, which tumbled against the major currencies. The pound jumped on the bandwagon and soared 4% last week. The driver behind the dollar’s slide was the October US inflation report, as headline CPI dropped to 7.7%, down from 8.2% in October. Core CPI also slowed and both readings were below expectations. This sent risk appetite through the roof, as equities climbed sharply while the dollar tumbled. Investors may have gone overboard in their exuberant reaction to the inflation report, and as a result, we’re seeing the dollar bounce back against the pound and most of the majors today. The US inflation report sent the financial markets into a tizzy last week because it raised expectations that the Fed will ease up on tightening. The markets have currently priced in a 0.50% hike at the Decem...

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# The main Asian indicators at the end of the week showed significant growth (up to 6%). China's Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite rose less than others, by 1.6% and 1.72%, respectively. The Korean KOSPI gained almost twice as much, up 3.03%, while the Australian S&P/ASX 200 and Japan's Nikkei 225 added 2.79% and 2.98%, respectively. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gained more than the rest - 6% at once. At the same time, the Japanese indicator showed the highest growth over the past two months. Overall, the Nikkei 225 gained nearly 4% over the week. Such a significant increase in the Asia-Pacific indices is due to several factors. The first of them is a significant (up to 7.5%) increase in US stock indicators the day before. Such a positive mood of US investors was caused by fresh data on inflation in the US, which amounted to 7.7% last month compared to September's figure of 8.2%. This is the lowest level of this indicator since the beginning of the current...

# The New Zealand dollar is higher today, extending the huge gains seen on Thursday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6048, up 0.35%. NZ Manufacturing PMI contracts In the new era of spiralling inflation and rising interest rates, manufacturing in the major economies has been hard hit. New Zealand’s manufacturing sector has posted weak growth in recent months but fell into contraction in October. Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, down from 51.7 in September. This marked the lowest level since August 2021, when the country was in a lockdown due to Covid. Despite the soft manufacturing data, the New Zealand dollar is moving higher. The US dollar was absolutely crushed on Thursday, following a soft CPI release, and the downward trend has continued on Friday. Headline CPI dropped to 7.7%, down from 8.2% and the core reading dropped to 6.3%, down from 6.6%. Although inflation remains high, both indicators were lower than expected, sending stocks soaring and the US dolla...

# Early in the American session, the British Pound (GBP/USD) is trading at around 1.1760 and above 8/8 Murray (1.1718). We can see a strong bullish bias but the currency pair could face strong resistance at 1.1780. According to the daily chart, we can see that the British pound reached a strong resistance zone around 1.1780 - 1.1760. In case the pound tries to break above this level, we could expect a quick rally towards +1/8 Murray (1.1962) and the price could even reach the psychological level of 1.20. On the contrary, in case the British pound falls below this level (1.1780), we could expect a technical correction towards the 21 SMA located at 1.1434. The eagle indicator is showing an overbought signal, so a technical correction is likely in the next few days only if the pound breaks below 1.1780. On the other hand, we can observe the formation of an ascending triangle since September 16. The GBP/USD pair could be reaching the upper border of this triangle. With a sharp break b...

# This inflation report was a nice surprise. ​ Inflation has been very slow to come down, but this report gives up hope that this deceleration with pricing pressures might bring back hopes of a soft landing. The headline reading came in lower-than-expected, but most traders were focused with the month-over-month decline with core prices. ​ If this downward trajectory for inflation holds, then you can make a strong case that the bottom is in place for US equities. US stocks are rallying as Wall Street finally sees light at the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle tunnel. ​ This cool inflation report helped stocks post their best trading day in two years. ​ Treasury yields are in freefall, the dollar is tanking, and practically every risky asset is rejoicing over this inflation report. ​ ​ Inflation ​ ​ ​  Inflation has peaked but don’t hold your breath waiting for it to get to target. Inflation is cooling after the core reading only posted a 0.3% monthly in...

# EUR/USD Strong Buyers! The EUR/USD pair jumped higher after failing to stabilize below the downtrend line in the last attempt. Passing above the downtrend line (upside obstacle) signaled that the downside movement ended and that the rate could develop an upside reversal. Technically, the new uptrend line represents a downside obstacle while the 1.0091 former high stands as an upside obstacle. EUR/USD Trading Conclusion! The 1.0091 former high represents a static upside obstacle. Passing and stabilizing above it may signal further growth. This scenario helps the traders to buy this currency pair. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Bitcoin has lost more than $1,000 in a few hours tonight. In the current conditions, a flat is quite a lot, since in the last 5 months the cryptocurrency has been moving extremely weakly. Thus, bitcoin has resumed its course to the level of $18,500, which can be worked out today for the 15th or 16th time. We still believe that overcoming this level is just a matter of time. Recall that the longer the instrument tries to overcome this or that level, the higher the probability that it will overcome it eventually. As we can see, the nascent and weak upward momentum does not receive any support or development, which does not surprise us at all, because there was no reason to buy bitcoin either. This week's key event will be the US inflation report. It will be published on Thursday and may affect the movement of the entire cryptocurrency market. Traders ignored the Fed meeting last week, which looked very strange to us since events are a little more important than the central bank m...

# The Australian dollar is almost unchanged today, after sharp gains on Friday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6470, down 0.02% on the day. Aussie Soars After Nonfarm Payrolls  The US dollar declined against all the major currencies on Friday, after a mixed nonfarm payrolls report left investors in a dovish mood. The October reading of 261,000 was down from the previous reading of 315,000 and marked the smallest gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, up from 3.5%, while wage growth rose to 5.5% YoY, up from 5.2%. The latter release is likely to keep the Fed concerned about inflationary pressures. Investors are expecting that the labor market will continue to soften and that the Fed will lean toward a 50 basis point hike rather than 75 bp, and this sent the dollar sharply lower after the NFP report on Friday. Still, with the Federal Reserve expected to raise rates to 5% or even higher next year, I expect the US dollar to remain attra...

# Worries about the lack of supply of oil in the market lift its price on the charts on Friday. As a result, the highs since October 11 were updated. Brent oil futures jumped 3.45% to $97.94 a barrel. Futures for WTI crude are up 4.12% to $91.75 per barrel. Quotes of both grades grew on Wednesday as well, which was facilitated by reports from the US Department of Energy on the reduction of commercial oil reserves in the country following last week's results. According to the report, U.S. commercial inventories fell by 3.12 million barrels last week to 436.83 million. At the same time, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.26 million barrels to 206.63 million. Analysts assumed that oil inventories would decrease only by 200,000 barrels, and gasoline stocks by 1 million barrels. Oil is getting more expensive despite the Federal Reserve's announcement of raising interest rates by 75 basis points, which eventually brings it to 4% per annum, that is, to the highest level since Jan...

# Long-term perspective. The EUR/USD currency pair has not gained or lost a single point during the current week. Although the euro did nothing but fall during the first four days, it managed to recover all the losses on Friday. We think the pair's movement this week has been strange, and here's why. The Fed meeting was scheduled for Wednesday evening as the most significant event of the week. Why was the dollar strengthening up until this time? It is because the Fed rate was supposed to rise for the fourth time in a row by 0.75%, so the market worked out the tightening in advance. However, after the Fed raised the rate, the market continued to buy dollars, although we expected a backlash, as it had a week earlier with the ECB meeting. However, Jerome Powell's rhetoric turned out to be a little more "hawkish" than expected, so the market continued to sell the pair on Thursday. But on Friday, the US currency collapsed when the most important statistics on the la...

# Overview : The US dollar's strong gains against the Euro have continued today ahead of the sturdy news. The common currency reached a high of more than three days earlier this morning. This technical analysis of EUR/USD looks at the one-hour chart. The highest price that EUR/USD reached for that period was 0.9870 (last bullish wave - top). The lowest price that the EUR/USD pair reached during that period was 0.9845 (right now). The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 0.9800 or lower. Immediate support is seen around 0.9800. A clear break below that area could lead price to the neutral zone in the nearest term. Price will test 0.9817, because in general, we remain bearish on Nov. 4th, 2022. Yesterday, the market moved from its bottom at 0.9817 and continued to drop towards the top of 0.9713. Today, on the one-hour chart, the current fall will remain within a framework of correction. But the trend rebounded to close around the zone of 0.9796. However, if the pair ...

# Green lines- Fibonacci extension targets Recent price action gives us clues of a possible bigger reversal to the upside as price continues making higher lows. Price today is strongly positive above $91. Oil prices have formed a higher low at $82 area and if price breaks above October high of $93,63, then we should expect at least a similar to the first upward move rise, towards $100. At $100 we find the 100% Fibonacci extension target of the first leg higher from the $76.25 low to the October high of $93.63. As long as price is above $82, we expect Oil to reach at least the $100 price level. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown

# Price levels around 1.1700 has been holding prices for a short period of time before another price decline took place towards 1.1200. Shortly after, the price zone around 1.1500 has applied significant SELLING pressure when a valid SELL Entry was offered upon the previous ascending movement towards it. Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been moving downwards reaching the price levels of 1.0850, 1.0400, 1.0000 and recently 0.9600. The market remained under Selling pressure until the recent bullish break above 1.0000 was achieved. In the mean time, any downside movement towards 0.9850 should be watched for BUYING pressure where a new upside movement can be established. Trading analysis offered by Flex EA . Source #Unknown