Stuart's FX analysis

# EURUSD is trading around 1.11 having broken above both the tenkan-sen and the kijun-sen. On a daily basis price remains in a bearish trend as it located below the Kumo, however there are some signs showing a possible reversal might be on its way. Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# Gold price is trading at $1,932. Price is still below the red downward sloping resistance trend line, so we do not have a reversal to the upside yet. Support remains key at $1,900 where we saw bulls step in a absorb selling pressures. Red line -short-term resistance Gold price is challenging the red resistance trend line. Next resistance and target is at $1,967 if we see a break above $1,935 and the red trend line.A rejection here would bring Gold price back towards $1,900. So it is important for traders to be patient and wait and see how price reacts near the red trend line resistance. Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# Technical analysis: BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $47.300. Anyway, I see potential for the upside continuation of the bull trend. Due to the bull flag pattern in creation and upside cycle, I see potential for bullish movement. Watch for potential buying opportunities on the pullbacks. Upside objective is set at $51.500 Stochastic is showing bear reading. Key support is set at $45.600 Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# The recent negotiations over the situation in Ukraine led to a sharp increase in optimism. That resulted in a sharp rally in stocks, yesterday in Europe and the US, and this morning in Asia. It seems that many believe that the conflict is on its way to being resolved, however, it was debunked by the media today. In any case, hopes for an end to the military conflict provided support to US government bonds, so yields on 2-year notes and 10-year treasuries corrected down after reaching local highs. The ICE dollar index, on the other hand, fell sharply, failing to overcome the mark of 100 points. At the time of writing, the indicator remains under pressure and is around 98.19 points. Today, in addition to the conflict in Ukraine, the focus will be on the publication of US GDP data for the 4th quarter of last year. It is assumed that the indicator will rise significantly to 7.1%, against 2.3% a quarter earlier. If the numbers do not let down, the markets will see a signal for an energet...

# The GBPUSD is between the 100 and 200 hour moving averages The  GBPUSD  moved up to test it's 100 hour moving average yesterday, but found willing sellers against the level and retraced nearly all of the move to the upside before a modest bounce into the close took the price back toward unchanged levels on the day. In trading today the move to the upside started in the early Asian session and continued into the London/European session. In that session, the price did extend above its 100 hour moving average (blue line) currently at 1.3142,. The current hourly bar moved up to test the 200 hour moving average 1.31665 (the high reached 1.3167), but has so far found willing sellers against that level. Like the usdjpy-down-for-the-2nd-consecutive-day-with-200-hour-ma-holding-support-20220330/" target="_blank">USDJPY point found support against its 200 hour MA, the 200 hour MA in the GBPUSD is also providing some cause for pause. The current price is trading betwe...

# Technical analysis: EUR/USD has been trading upside in the background and the price tested the level of 1.1160. Anyway, I see potential for the downside movement. Trading recommendation: Due to the bear divergences in the momentum, I see potential for the downside rotation. Watch for potential selling opportunities with the downside objective at 1.1073 and 1.1036. Stochastic is showing bear divergence and potential for the downside rotation. Resistance is set at the price of 1.1160 Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# In the course of trading on Wednesday, the Asian stock market showed notable growth. Almost all indices gained more than 1% except for the Japanese Nikkei 225 which posted a decline of 1.44%. The rest of the Asia-Pacific indices are steadily growing: the Shanghai Composite rose by 1.29%, the Shenzhen Composite added 1.66%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.09%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 and South Korea's KOSPI gained slightly less than others, having advanced by 0.62% and 0.32% respectively. Investors' optimism is mainly supported by the recent negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul. The Russian side noted some progress in the talks between the two delegations. The possibility of a peace deal as well as of a personal meeting between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine encouraged the markets. Other global stock indices met this news with an upside move. The euro has strengthened against the US dollar while the value of oil has significantly decreased. ...

# XRPUSD is trading above $0.80. Short-term trend is bullish as price is making higher highs and higher lows. Price has formed an upward sloping channel since March 7th. So far price continues to respect the lower channel boundary. Blue lines- bullish channel Yesterday price touched the lower channel boundary and bulls managed to defend it. This support is at $0.84. Holding above this level is crucial for the short-term trend. XRPUSD has the potential to go higher towards $0.94 where we find the long-term key resistance. For now bulls seem in control of the short-term trend, however traders should not forget that XRPUSD remains trapped inside a long-term triangle pattern. XRPUSD is approaching the long-term important resistance and upper triangle boundary. Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# Bearish EUR/GBP is currently at 0.8457 after topping out and then breaking out. We are looking for an initial move to the ATR Target at the 0.8406 area and then the 0.500 Fibo at 0.8381. Watch the USDX for any change in direction. The ATR for the pair currently is 64 pips per day and its 180 day average is 55 pips per day. The USDX is currently down, but is threatening a bounce at the time of this post. EUR/GBP Chart Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# The major US indices are trading higher to start the day. Hopes for progress toward peace are helping to spur the gains. S&P is above its 100 day moving average for the second day Technicals also helping. Yesterday the S&P index also moved above - and closed above - its 100 day moving average for the first time since February 9. Since January 19, there have been three closes above its 100 day moving average. The first two times, the price reversed the next day. If the price today can remain above its 100 day moving average of 4545.65 today it would be the first time that we've had back to back closes above the its 100 day moving average since early 2022. A snapshot of the market 12 minutes into the opening is currently showing: Dow industrial average up 329.35 points or 0.94% at 32285.25 S&P index up 36.23 points or 0.79% at 4611.74  NASDAQ  index up 160.89 points or 1.12% at 14515.79 Russell 2000 up 32.41 points or 1.56% at 2110.47 In other markets:...

# All markets react with growth to news about the progress of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. US stock indices continue to grow, and a numb8er of risky assets have updated their highs. A particular strengthening was also noted in the Russian ruble, which at the time of writing is trading for 83 rubles per dollar. Russian negotiators said today that the meeting was successful, and the negotiations were quite constructive. "We have received proposals from Ukraine to consider their formulated position on inclusion in the treaty," Vladimir Medinsky said today. They even talked about the possible signing of a peace treaty, at which a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Zelensky is possible. Medinsky also noted that at the moment, subject to rapid work on the agreement and finding a compromise, the opportunity to conclude peace will become closer. Against this background, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 139 points or 0.4%, futures on the S&P 500 j...

# The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument is becoming more complicated due to today's increase in quotes. Now the proposed wave 4 can take a five-wave form and fits very poorly into the current wave layout. Nevertheless, the wave pattern still does not require drastic changes. If the construction of the proposed wave 4 still ends in the coming days, then the tool can still build the proposed wave 5 in E. If the increase in quotes continues, then the entire wave markup will require adjustments. The 127.2% Fibonacci level, near which waves a and c ended at 4, should not miss the instrument above itself. An unsuccessful attempt to break through it will signal that the market is ready for new sales of the instrument. If the decline in the quotes of the instrument ends there, then the entire wave E will take a single wave form and will be recognized as completed on March 7. Geopolitics had a serious impact on the market on Tuesday, but it may have it in the ...

# USDJPY falls for only the 3rd time in 17 days today The USDJPY has seen the price rise 14 of the last 16 days. Today, it is looking like a down day as trader flows head more into the European currencies (especially the EUR) on peace hope in Ukraine. The USDJPY's pair move to the downside today, has seen the price move below the 38.2-50% of the most recent trend move higher (see hourly chart below). That area comes between 123.13 to 123.59. The low price reached to 122.48 before bouncing. At the low the pair got within about 11 or so pips of the rising 100 hour MA. The price of the USDJPY has not traded below its 100 hour moving average since March 7. USDJPY shows signs the trend like momentum is over for now The  USDJPY  has moved up from the March 4 low of 114.642 to the high price reached yesterday at 125.193. That move of took the price up 1055 pips over 16 trading days (a little over three weeks). The correction over the last day has taken the price down around 26...

# EUR/USD Daily Chart EUR/USD bears are currently giving up on the idea of a double top at the 3-month trading range low, which is why the daily chart has a big bull bar today. Currently, the odds favor a bull breakout above the March bear flag and a test of the 3-month trading range and the top of the large bear channel line. Bulls want today to close near its high, which would increase the odds of follow-through tomorrow. I have been saying that the bears needed to get follow-through after the March 21 double top stop entry, and while the bears had a tight channel, it was becoming difficult for the bears to stay short. This means that as the market was going down to March 28, the bear bars were getting weaker, which is the opposite of what a bear wants, which is why the bears gave up on the open of today. Overall, traders should expect a test of the March high and for the bulls to try and break above the March bear flag and try for a measured move up. The bulls need conse...

# The key indices of the US stock market - Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 - continue to show record growth. Although the Fed raised its key rate quite recently, and also announced 6 more increases in 2022, the stock market still found reasons to actively buy stocks. From our point of view, this is a very interesting moment, because, over the past two weeks, US stock indices have grown very much and have already adjusted by 50% against the correction that we observed at the beginning of this year. Why did investors rush to buy stocks and bitcoin, which is also growing in the price? From our point of view, no matter how banal it may sound, capital is now flowing from the Russian economy to the American one. It's no secret that the Moscow Stock Exchange still opened this week, and the blue chips even managed to avoid a serious fall. However, experts immediately stated that it was the companies themselves who were buying up their shares for a song, and the Russian government was ...

# There has been a lot of talk lately about the decline of the US dollar's reserve status. However, investors and traders should separate long-term trends from short-term market impulses. DXY weekly chart. Reserve fund managers often prefer to refrain from active selling so as not to cause unnecessary market turbulence, so all reserve trends are stretched out over decades. As long as there is no real threat to the existence of the dollar and the solvency of the US government, managers will avoid making active moves to sell dollar assets. And all the revolutionary changes, such as switching to national currencies, will only result in CBs buying fewer new dollars. But it has little effect on the exchange rate. We see the opposite picture, as the main competitors are under pressure. Investors are getting rid of the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan accelerates its currency printing to buy bonds out of the market to stem rising yields. The local government is overburdened with...

# Technical analysis: BTC has been trading and there is the breakout of the 2-month consolidation in the background, which is sign that buyers are in control. Trading recommendation: Due to the breakout of the contraction in the background, I see potential for the further upside movement. Watch for buying opportunities on the pullbacks wih the upside objective at the price of 51.600. Stochastic is showing overbought condition but with no evidence for the reversal. Support level is set at the price of $44.000 Trading analysis offered by RobotFX and Flex EA . Source #RobotFX Team

# Technical outlook: Ethereum has raised through $3,350 levels on Monday, in-line with expectations and projected targets. The crypto has hit the initial target at $3,330 as seen on the daily chart here. The next target could be above the $3,500 mark, which is fibonacci 0.618 extension as seen here. Bulls will be poised to remain in control for now as potential remains through $3,800-4,000 zone. Ethereum had dropped between $4,850 and $2,100 levels carving a meaningful downswing earlier. The crypto is inching towards its fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above downswing, which is close to $3,900 mark. High probability remains for bears to be back in control thereafter and drag below the $2,100 lows. Ethereum is unfolding its corrective rally since $2,100 lows and is probably into the last leg higher. Potential upside targets of the counter trend are converging with the retracement of primary downswing around $3,800-3,900 levels. Potential for a strong bearish reversal remains high...

# Futures on US stock indices are trading quite differently on Monday before a very important week, which is filled with key macroeconomic indicators. Many traders continue to actively monitor the position of the Federal Reserve System and the pace of interest rate increases, which can seriously affect the further upward prospects of the market. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 3 points, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.1%. As for bond yields, there is a change in the yield curve, which indicates concerns about the recession of the economy. The yield on 5-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.6361%, while the yield on 30-year bonds fell by less than 1 basis point to 2,6004%. The fact that the yield of long securities is lower than the yield of short ones - the so-called inversion of the yield curve indicates real problems in the economy, which will only worsen as a result of inflationary pressure. However, the main difference in profitability, which tr...

# To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Despite the rather high volatility of the pound in the first half of the day, trading was still conducted within the side channel. Unfortunately, we did not reach the levels I indicated quite a bit. For this reason, there were no signals to enter the market. For the second half of the day, the technical picture was completely revised, although the strategy that I recommend following has not undergone any special changes. And what were the entry points for the euro this morning? The speech of the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, was more concerned with the problems in commodity markets, which, according to him, continue to create serious inflationary pressure. The pound collapsed after the governor of the Bank of England reiterated statements made at the last meeting that officials consider it necessary to soften their language regarding the need for further interest rate hikes due to growing uncertainty. This tells us tha...

# On Wall Street, the stock market saw strong 2-week performances. Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures climbed about 5.5% and 7.7% respectively. The former saw its best performance since early 2021 as the latter climbed the most since May 2020. Nasdaq 100 futures took the cake though, with the index gaining over 10%. You need to go back to the early 2000s dot-com bust to see the same kind of performance. This comes despite an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve, where Chair Jerome Powell and company offered relatively strong signals for financial markets. At the beginning of this past week, he said that the central bank ‘will hike’ by more than 25 basis points each time ‘if needed’. Simultaneously, the central bank has been offering confident messaging that they do not see elevated odds of a recession in 2023. This tone could have been what helped propel stock markets higher. Also working to offer more liquidity into the system is a rising balance sheet. On the chart below, the S&...

# The euro-dollar pair ended the week on a minor note, once again not staying within the 10th figure. A surge in anti-risk sentiment has strengthened the greenback's position, while the euro continues to follow the quoted currency. Dollar bulls won the local battle, but were unable to reverse the overall situation in their favor. Geopolitical uncertainty forces traders to be extremely cautious and circumspect. Actually, that's why the EUR/USD pair is actually marking time, despite the increased intraday volatility. In general, the last trading week was characterized by interesting circumstances. Firstly, the pair has formed a price range of 1.0960-1.1050, within which market participants demonstrate their "emotions". That is, if the level of anti-risk sentiment in the market increases, the pair goes to the lower limit of the specified echelon, if the market resumes craving for risky assets, the price goes to the upper limit of this range. But at the same time, neith...

# The Australian dollar continues its upward track: the AUD/USD pair has grown by almost 400 points in 2.5 weeks, reaching 0.7530, thereby updating the multi-month price high. The last time the aussie was at this height was last summer, when the coronavirus crisis once again began to decline. There are completely different problems on the agenda today, already of a geopolitical nature. The shadow of a possible global conflict follows traders, determining their mood and influencing trading decisions. Any gaps in this context (even temporary ones) allow risky assets to gain momentum, due to a decrease in anti-risk sentiment. Given the almost complete information vacuum that has formed around the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine, the focus of the market's attention has shifted to several other fundamental factors, also of a geopolitical nature. As you know, a NATO summit was held in Brussels this week, at which, in particular, Poland's proposal to introduce a ...

# In our previous analysis, we mentioned that we could see the EUR/USD price returning back down to $1.09860, which is support for the price. And the price has done that. On Monday, bearish candles formed and on Tuesday a bullish Pin bar. Monday showed us the direction of the week, where the price continued moving down to the first support level.  We also mentioned that if the price creates a bullish price action signal around $1.09860, that would be an indication the price will move up and we can enter the market, and sure enough, the price formed a bullish Pin bar on Tuesday, giving us the entry signal. A Pin bar formed on the support level and on the uptrend line of the short uptrend channel that is visible on the chart. This gave us a strong wick reaching the support level and a small body that was still inside a short uptrend channel. On Wednesday, the price had a hard time moving up and formed a bearish candle where the day closed below the previous candle body. Thi...

# The ramping up of hawkish Fed rhetoric, and the knock-on move higher in US Treasury bond yields, continue to apply downward pressure on EUR/USD with the pair clinging onto the 1.1000 level. Small moves higher are met with sellers, while any recent dip below the 1.1000 sees buyers reappear to try and steady the pair. Whether there are bigger forces at play keeping EUR/USD afloat, there will come a time soon when moves lower will accelerate, due to the widening yield differential between USTS and Bunds, leaving the recent two year low just above 1.0800 at risk. The Federal Reserve is fully expected to hike rates by another 150 basis points this year and start reducing its USD9 trillion+ balance sheet, while the ECB may move rates marginally higher at the end of 2022 if their growth outlook allows. The yield differential between the 10 year UST and Bund is already +190 basis points in the US dollar’s favor. The latest Euro Zone inflation data are released next week and are expected to ...

# The price of gold appears to have reversed ahead of the 50-Day SMA ($1888) as it extends the advance from the monthly low ($1895), and fresh data prints coming out of the US may fuel the recent advance in the precious metal as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for inflation is expected to increase for the sixth consecutive month. The price of gold appears to be on track to retrace the decline from the yearly high ($2070) as it breaks out of the range bound price action following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, and the update to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index may prop up the precious metal as the reading core reading is expected to increase to 5.5% from 5.2% per annum in January. Another uptick in the core PCE may put pressure on the FOMC to normalize monetary policy at a faster pace as the gauge climbs to its highest reading since 1983, and it remains to be seen if the central bank will adjust its exit strategy at the...

# For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look very convincing and does not require any additions. The expected wave d in E is probably already completed, and there should be five waves in total inside wave E, respectively, as in the case of the euro/dollar instrument, the downward trend section can continue its construction. The instrument made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which may mean the completion point of wave d. If this assumption is correct, then the decline in quotes will continue with targets located around the 27th figure within the wave e in E. I note that there are enough reasons for wave E to take an even more extended form. Or the entire downward section of the trend has taken a more extended form. It will depend on how bad the news background will be for the Briton. And the most important thing is the geopolitical background. I have almost no doubt that the recent decline in the pound lies exclusively in the...

# The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument still does not change and looks convincing. At this time, the construction of the proposed wave E is continuing, which should take a five-wave form. The low of the previous wave was broken, so the construction of a downward trend section continues. Since wave E has already taken on a sufficiently extended form, a scenario appears in which the construction of this wave will soon be completed. However, so far, the internal wave marking of wave E indicates that wave 4 has now been completed and the construction of wave 5 has begun. To get confirmation of the start of the construction of wave 5, you need to wait for a successful attempt to break through the 1.0948 mark, which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci. Going below the low of wave b at 4 will also confirm the construction of a new downward wave. Otherwise, wave 4 in E can still take the five-wave form a-b-c-d-e. I am not considering alternative wave markup options ...

# This article was written exclusively for Investing.com Given the big rebound in equity prices over the past couple of weeks, rising yields, including on the US 10-year Treasury note, and the sharp USD/JPY rally, you would think the USD/CHF would be much higher by now. But evidently, haven demand for the franc remains high, much to the annoyance of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). This has helped to keep the franc supported, at least for now anyway. The Swiss central bank re-iterated on Thursday that it will retain expansionary monetary policy as the franc remains highly valued and that it is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to counter the upward pressure on its currency. The market has gotten tired of the SNB’s rhetoric, and traders are testing the central bank’s patience by bidding up the franc. Still, I can’t see why the USD/CHF cannot start to rise again, given its historic positive correlation with the USD/JPY, and the factors mentioned above.  USD/CHF Cor...

# US indices gained on Thursday because no sharp statements and actions were made at the NATO summit. However, shares of energy companies fell as natural gas prices dipped after the US and the European Union announced plans to cut European countries off Russian supplies. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have risen even though they have remained on one of the worst quarterly tracks since the early 1970s. The dollar index, on the other hand, fell. Oil also rolled back after the leaders of the European Union refrained from new steps to reduce imports of Russian oil. Investors continue to grapple with the geopolitical situation, which caused higher commodity costs that have fueled expectations of higher inflation and more aggressive Fed rate hikes. Key parts of the US Treasury yield curve continue to flatten or invert, sparking debate about whether the bond market will prompt a sharp slowdown in the economy, or even cause a recession. "We think it will happen pretty quickly," sai...

# European stock indexes have advanced slightly during Friday's session. Shares of mining companies led the upside, while banks and automakers decreased. At the time of writing, the STOXX Europe 600 gained 0.03%, reaching 453.18 points. The DAX increased by 0.24%, and the CAC 40 added 0.18%, while the FTSE MIB and the IBEX 35 rose by 0.31% and 0.17% respectively. The FTSE 100 lost 0.11%. Shares of Trelleborg AB showed the best performance on the STOXX Europe 600 - the Swedish engineering group jumped by 21% after the company sold its tire manufacturing unit, Trelleborg Wheel Systems, to Japan's Yokohama Rubber Co. Ltd. for €2.1 billion. Other stocks making significant gains during Friday's session were Zur Rose (+5.2%), Polymetal International (+4.4%), and Telecom Italia (+4.3%) The worst performing stocks of the session are Electricite de France (-2.3%), Bellway Plc (-2.2%) and Barrat Developments Plc (-2.1%). At the time of writing, shares of Tele2 and Deutsche Tel...

# USD/CAD traded lower yesterday, breaking below the critical support barrier of 1.2560, initially marked by the low of Jan. 26, and tested again several times this week. This, combined with the fact that the rate is trading below the lower end of the sideways range that contained most of the price action from Jan. 26 until Mar. 17, paints a negative short-term picture. Despite a subsequent bounce, we believe that the dip below 1.2560 may have opened the way towards the 1.2453 zone, which is marked as a support by the lows of Jan. 13, 19, and 20. If that key zone fails to provide support this time, we may experience extensions towards the 1.2387 barrier, marked by the low of Nov. 10, which could allow a test at the 1.2327 level, defined by the low of Oct. 29. Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that although the RSI rebounded from slightly below 30, it turned slightly down again. In contrast, the MACD, already negative, had also turned south and just crossed bel...