Stuart's FX analysis

# GBPUSD stalled last week in a swing area The GBPUSD is moving higher today after bottoming on Thursday last week at 1.33574. Looking at the daily chart above, that low was within a swing area between 1.3352 and 1.3375. Holding that level stalled the fall and we have seen a rebound off of that low on Friday and again today. The price action to the upside is still modest and full of choppy up-and-down price action. After rallying in the Asian session to a high of 1.3448, there was a quick dip to the downside in European morning session, which saw the price move to a low of 1.33924. However, over the last two hours the price has retraced higher and toward the highs for the day. In the process, the pair has moved back above a swing area on the hourly chart between 1.3434 and 1.3439. The falling 100 hour moving average (blue line) is also in play at 1.34391. The current price is trading just above those levels at 1.3442. Buyers are making a play. The question is can they stay above th...

# The euro is calm on Monday, after enduring a brutal week. The US dollar was broadly higher last week and steamrolled over the euro, as EUR/USD fell 1.72%. On Friday, the euro dropped as low as 1.1121, its lowest level since June 2020. It is a busy data calendar for the eurozone, which could mean plenty of action for the euro this week. The ECB holds its policy meeting on Thursday. The central bank is expected to maintain rates, but ECB President Lagarde could provide guidance on when rate hikes could occur. Lagarde has been quite dovish when it comes to eurozone inflation, saying that the rise in inflation is transient (sound familiar? Think Jerome Powell). Earlier in the day, German CPI for January came in at 4.9% y/y. This was unchanged from November, but somewhat higher than the consensus of 4.3%. It will be interesting to see if Lagarde stays true to her stance or acknowledges at the upcoming meeting that inflation has become more persistent than the ECB expected. The US deliv...

# Since Zuckerberg successfully rebranded, changing the company's name, and very confidently, albeit vaguely, announced the Napoleonic plans, investors are wondering about the reasons for such a decision, weighing the market potential. In this article, I will prove to you that Meta is the new bitcoin, and if you are one of those who missed the birth of cryptocurrencies at the time, it's time to pay attention to the metaverses. The Metaverse and what it is eaten with One of the main problems of the public, as well as investors, is a very vague understanding of the metaverse and its goals. Someone considers it an opponent of Web 3.0. Someone, on the contrary, believes that these two technologies, apparently, somehow complement each other, since Zuckerberg got confused with his own cryptocurrency Diem (which was recently abandoned by Mark at the curb). But in general, the idea of the metaverse is very vague among the inhabitants, so although Meta shares reacted positively to t...

# During the pandemic, the US stock market, represented by the S&P 500 index, increased by about 120% from the low of March 2020 to the high of January 2022. During this period, stock investors even developed a reflex of buying on drawdowns, since fears of the consequences of the pandemic were offset by the fact that the US central bank and the federal government were lending a shoulder to the national economy, and through it to the markets. "What cheap money has done is provide protection from bad news. But as this comfortable blanket is lifted, investors will be more vulnerable, and we suspect that this will create a more unstable environment for asset prices," Rabobank strategists noted. Market participants were optimistic about entering 2022, believing that a strong US economy and further growth in corporate profits would keep stocks on an upward trajectory, even despite tightening monetary conditions in the United States. Thanks to these expectations, on January...

# Analysis of previous deals: 30M chart of the GBP/USD pair The GBP/USD pair also tried to overcome the important support level of 1.3374 on Friday, but also failed to do so. As a result, the price bounced off the level several more times, but also failed to adjust, as did the European currency. There was only a slight upward pullback. At the same time, the downward trend continues to persist, as evidenced by the downward trend line. It is located far enough from the price's current position, so there is a place to adjust. On Friday, not a single important report was published in the UK, and in America there were only a few minor ones, which, oddly enough, still provoked a market reaction: at the beginning of the US session, the dollar fell by 50 points. In general, the volatility of the pair was low. We believe that the pair may try to adjust on Monday or Tuesday of the new week. 5M chart of the GBP/USD pair On the 5-minute timeframe, the movement of the pound/dollar pair on...

# Analysis of previous deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair The EUR/USD pair tried to overcome the 1.1131 level several times on the 30-minute timeframe on Friday, but it failed to do so. . As a result, there was a rebound from this level, but the upward correction, as such, did not begin. The pair managed to move away by only 50 points from the low of the day, which also indicates low volatility on Friday. In principle, after the super-saturated Wednesday and Thursday, the market needed a little rest. The only thing is that we still expected to see an upward correction. However, the euro/dollar pair continues to remain inside the descending channel, that is, the downward movement may resume at any moment. But at the same time, the pair has a growth potential, since it is currently near the lower border of the channel and can adjust to the upper one. There were few macroeconomic reports on Friday. We see in the chart above that the main movement happened on the candle at 13-30 GMT, ...

# Bitcoin has now managed to recover to the level of $ 38,637, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci level. At the moment, the price has dropped by more than 80% from the last round of growth. It has not yet been possible to gain a foothold above the level of $ 38,637, and the target level of about $ 31,100 has not been worked out. Therefore, according to all technical signs, the fall of cryptocurrency should continue in the near future. It should also be noted that bitcoin if it starts a new "bullish" trend, does it quite sharply. Now we are seeing a sluggish departure from the local minimum. In any case, the price has a level of $ 38,637 on top and a critical Kijun-sen line on a 24-hour timeframe. They must be overcome without fail if bitcoin is "aiming" for a new "bullish" trend. Robert Kiyosaki is waiting for bitcoin much lower. Well, while no "bullish" trend has started, let's consider some new opinions about the future of bitcoin. The author ...

# While bitcoin is consolidating below the level of $ 40,000 per coin, we suggest speculating on how much bitcoin can and should cost. The price of any asset is determined by supply and demand, taking into account the cost. That is, figuratively speaking, bitcoin cannot cost less than the cost price, since in this case, no one will simply mine it. However, this statement is true only for the medium and long term. What does it mean? If the price of bitcoin drops below the cost price for two weeks or two months, this will not change the overall picture of the situation in any way. Miners will not give up mining, because they will know that the price will rise again. Thus, in the short term, bitcoin may very well cost less than the cost of its production. According to various estimates (in different mining locations, the cost of electricity, premises, equipment, and so on is different) the cost of one bitcoin coin ranges between 20-30 thousand dollars at the moment. The profitability of ...

# and traded fairly neutral the past 2 weeks as a result of resting at the 5 year average at 95.06. DXY bolted higher to 97.22 to trade near 98.00 and 99.00 monthly average tops. DXY highs forced non USD EUR/USD, , and to trade to extreme lows. Non USD currencies now trade at extreme lows to DXY while and trade at extreme highs. The USD Vs Non USD divide is wide and the enormous gap will close this week. Trade instruction this week for Non USD pairs is long anywhere as entry doesn’t matter, while USD/CHF and USD/CAD short anywhere as entry doesn’t matter either. BOE And ECB Preview EUR/USD and trade 50 pips, possibly in the same direction. If traders don’t hit the day trade perfectly, then nobody earns any money. Day Trade Hourly Averages GBP/USD and USD/CAD trade an hourly average of 16 pips. trades 19 pips.  9 pips, 8 pips, 16 pips. EUR/USD trades 14 pips. USD/JPY at 14 pips. DXY trades 12 pips. Factor deviations and intervals to the averages then movements are much small...

# Given the steep losses many investors have experienced in recent weeks, many want to identify the culprit that is responsible. Two have emerged. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and Russian President Putin. Putin's threat may have encouraged some risk adjustment, but looking back at February 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea and annexed it, it should not be exaggerated. If anything, the , for example, may have gained a little, depending on the exact dates one uses. The same is for the against the euro. The franc rose to six-year highs against the last week. In 2014, when the SNB was capping the franc (floor for euro at CHF1.20), there did not seem to be much pressure on the cross. In fact, domestic sight deposits, which offers insight into intervention, fell from mid-February 2014 through mid-March. rallied about 5% from the February 23 invasion to March 17. It gave it all back plus more by the end of the month. It is easy to blame the Fed for the stock market sell-off, after all ma...

# The technical picture of bitcoin on a 24-hour timeframe very eloquently shows that a "bearish" trend has now formed. All of it is perfectly visible in the illustration below. Moreover, now there is no reason to assume that this trend is over. The target level of $ 31,106 has not been worked out, the pullback to the top is so far scanty, the downward movement itself is very strong: bitcoin has lost about $ 30,000 in value in just 2.5 months. It has almost doubled in price. We cannot judge how many institutional and large investors continue to hold coins in their wallets, and which ones have begun to slowly get rid of them. We can only judge long-term fundamental trends. And here everything is quite simple and nothing changes. Trend number 1. The absolute majority of countries in the world and almost all large and developed countries in the world are tightening the rules of circulation and regulation of cryptocurrencies to one degree or another. Naturally, this is a negati...

# The price dropped strongly after the first two days of trading last week, reflected by the two bearish candles with large wicks that had formed. Those wicks represented the price at the strong $1.13094 support level. On Wednesday, the price managed to break below the previous two day wicks, which was the start of a bearish move. And that move was confirmed the next day. On Thursday, the price formed a large bearish candle that closed the day below $1.11871 support level. The support level did not have any reaction on the price, which tells us bearish pressure was too strong. This level lost its significance and the price is now below the downtrend channel. EUR/USD Forecast 29.1.2022 What we can expect over the next few days is the price returning back to its resistance level at $1.11871, which is now a confluence of resistance, where horizontal support line and downtrend channel trend line cross. There the price will find resistance where more sellers will enter...

# This week, of course, one of the most important events for all markets took place. This event is the Fed meeting. Let's figure out how the first cryptocurrency in the world is moving now, what it can expect in the near future, and also what was the reaction to the most important events. The first thing to start with is the Fed meeting. The reaction, as such, to this event was rather weak. Bitcoin very predictably fell on Jerome Powell's statements about his readiness to raise the key rate throughout 2022. Also, bitcoin could not help but react to a new reduction in the quantitative stimulus program, which will continue to function for exactly one more month, and during this period, bonds worth $ 30 billion will be redeemed. However, bitcoin fell by only $ 2,600 and in the next couple of days recovered all the lost positions. A larger drop in bitcoin occurred on January 20-21. Up to this point in time, the cryptocurrency had been in the side channel of $ 40,746 - $ 43,852 for...

# For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look convincing. In the last few weeks, the instrument has been at the stage of building an upward wave, which is currently interpreted as wave D of the downward trend section. However, if the current wave layout is correct, then this wave has completed its construction and the construction of wave E has begun. Thus, the entire downward section of the trend can take on an even more extended form. Wave D has taken a clear three-wave form and its internal wave marking does not cause any questions now. A successful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level, which corresponds to 1.3458, indicates that the markets are ready for new sales of the British. Within the assumed wave E, lower-order waves are now being overlooked with great difficulty. There are five of them, but the low of wave E has not yet gone beyond the low of wave C. Thus, these may be waves of the most junior order. In other words, five waves are const...

# The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument still looks convincing. Wave d turned out to be more extended than I originally expected, but this does not change the essence of the wave marking. The decline in the quotes of the instrument in the last two weeks has led to the fact that the low of the wave c-C has been broken, so the current descending wave is already quite definitely the wave e-C, as I assumed earlier. Consequently, the entire wave C has assumed a five-wave form, and no internal waves are visible inside its wave e yet. Thus, this wave can also take either a pronounced five-wave form, or vice versa shortened. And in the second case, it is already nearing its completion. A successful attempt to break through the 1.1152 mark, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci, will indicate that the market is ready to sell the instrument. But I admit that in the next week or two this wave may come to an end. Are there any prospects for further growth in the dol...

# Looking at the chart, we can see that after reaching as high as 0.842, there was an immediate negative reaction that led to the gradual, consistent fall. Initially, the pair fell to the first support base in the 0.836 regions, showing signs of consolidation. Ultimately the 0.834 support was broken, and the pair fell further below. It is currently found trading at 0.8314 between having temporary support at 0.831 and overhead resistance at the 0.834 level. Today we could expect a continuation of the downward trend, falling further below the 0.831 as negative momentum may be at play. If it manages to hold above the 0.831 range, then a move towards the 0.834 overhead resistance could be expected. EUR/GBP price chart. Trading analysis offered by Complex Trader - a RobotFX partner. Source #RobotFX Team

# Overview : Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair reached a new minimum at the price of 1.1130. So, today the price may reach one more minimum around the spot of 1.1130, which coincides with the double bottom. Today, the EUR/USD pair is challenging the psychological resistance at 1.1212. Hence, the resistance is seen at the level of 1.1212 in the one-hour time frame. We expect the EUR/USD pair to continues moving in a downtrend below the level of 1.1212 towards the first target at 1.1089, while major resistance is found at 1.1264 (38.2% Fibonacci Expansion). On the downside, a clear break at the level of 1.1128 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.1089, which represents the major support today. As a result, it is gainful to sell below this price of 1.1160 with targets at 1.1089 and 1.1054. However, the bullish trend is still expected for the upcoming days as long as the price is above 1.1264. Trading analysis offered by Complex Trader - a RobotFX partner. Source #RobotFX...

# EURUSD, H4: For the EURUSD currency pair, we see the development of a major bearish trend, which takes the form of a triple zigzag. The previous markup has lost its relevance. Most likely, the development of the second wave of the XX bundle has already completely come to an end. It took the form of a double zigzag, which is marked by three main sub-waves [W]-[X]-[Y]. Thus, on the last section of the chart, we see a downward price movement, which may indicate the beginning of the development of the current wave Z. Perhaps wave Z will be a standard zigzag. Its approximate internal structure is schematically shown on the chart with trend lines and marked with green letters [A]-[B]-[C]. The whole wave Z can be completed to the level of 1.065, where its value will be 76.4% on the Fibonacci lines from the previous active wave Y. In the short term, an impulse decline in the first wave [A] to the level of 1.100 is expected, after which the price may slightly rise in correction [B], as ...

# The main news from the world of cryptocurrencies: The developers of the Cardano network added support for smart contracts, which attracted new projects and greatly increased the load on the network - block occupancy exceeded 94 percent. The network has grown rapidly in the past year, but a significant increase in transaction volume occurred just a few days ago. The block size on the Cardano network is currently 72 kilobytes. It was increased by 12.5 percent at the end of November. Blocks now contain all generated transactions. BTCUSD H1: The BTCUSD cryptocurrency pair is expected to develop a downward corrective trend, which takes the form of a double zigzag. Perhaps the first active wave W was completely completed. It took the form of a simple zigzag, consisting of sub-waves [A]-[B]-[C]. Currently, we see the price increase within the wave X. Most likely, this will take the form of a double combination [W]-[X]-[Y]. It seems that the first two sub-waves [W]-[X] have already be...

# The January meeting of the Federal Reserve is over. All three major US indexes - the Dow Jones, the NASDAQ, and the S&P 500 are on the uptrend following the Fed's meeting. Interest rate increases, the wind-down of monetary stimulus and the reduction of the balance sheet are bearish factors for equities. However, the stock market indexes, which were on the decline since the beginning of the year, has already priced in the Fed's decision long ago. With strong US GDP data likely to give support to the market, an upward correction is now possible. The US economy grew by 6.9% in Q4 2021 compared to the previous quarter. The indexes and equities could rise for the next couple of days, but what happens next is unclear. The global correction in the markets could continue in 2022. The Fed is ready to raise the interest rate this year as many times as needed - the regulator, as well as chairman Powell, made that clear yesterday. This summer, the Fed would steadily reduce its bala...

# US Treasury yields are rising in ligh of hawkish comments from the Fed weakening the strength of gold. Early in the American session, gold is trading around 1,805 with a bearish bias. According to the daily chart, gold could find good support at the 200 EMA located at 1,801 or 3/8 Murray. The metal is trading firmly lower due to the pressure exerted by the US dollar that received a boost from the comments of Jerome Powell. He said that there is room for an increase in the interest rate and reiterated that its QE program will end in March. The eagle indicator has reached the oversold zone. This is a sign of an imminent technical rebound for gold in the next few hours. Gold's trend on daily charts remains bullish as it is also above the 200 EMA and is trading within the uptrend channel formed since December 13. A daily close below 1,796 could be the start of a move downward and a trend reversal with targets at 1,781 and up to 1,750. Our trading plan is to buy if gold bounce...