The EUR/USD pair rebounded on Tuesday from weekly lows, back above 1.1000, keeping the familiar price range. The euro outperformed ahead of the European Central Bank meeting while the US dollar weakened due to lower US bond yields.
At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1030, up 0.31% on the day after peaking at 1.1048, more than a hundred pips above the level it had 24 hours ago.
Renewed banking concerns, even after the takeover of First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC), triggered a decline in equity prices on Wall Street and a rally in Treasury bonds. Lower US yields weighed on the greenback. The DXY retreated from three-week highs near 102.50, back to 101.55.
Market participants increased their bets of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later in 2023. For Wednesday, they still see the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points. It is expected to be the last rate hike. The FOMC will deliver the statement at 18:00 GMT and then Powell will offer a press conference. There won’t be updated macroeconomic projections from the FOMC staff.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its decision. While a 25 basis point is priced in, a 50 bps hike also seems possible, considering the latest round of Eurozone inflation data. Those hawkish expectations have been supporting the euro.
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD holds a short-term bullish outlook after the rebound. However, gains remain limited while under 1.1050. The pair must break and hold firm above to clear the way for 1.1100.
The euro rebounded and held above important technical levels like the 20-day Simple Moving Average. A decline under 1.1000 would weaken the near-term outlook for EUR/USD, while a consolidation under 1.0950 would expose the next strong support at 1.0900/10, increasing the odds of a deeper correction.
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