Stuart's FX analysis

# EUR/USD going nowhere last week as I suspected so that has meant buying at strong support at 1.0975/55 (a low for the day here on Friday) & selling at resistance at 1.1080/1.1100 has worked. Keep trading these 2 levels until we breakout of the 100 pip range. Shorts at 1.1080/1.1100 need stops above 1.1105. A break higher is a buy signal & resumes the 7 month bull trend. Try to buy in to a long & hold it with stops below 1.1065. Strong support at 1.0975/55. Longs need stops below 1.0935. A break lower targets 1.8080/70. EUR/CAD I was watching for a double top sell signal - this did play out on Friday as the pair collapsed almost 200 pips, as far as strong support at 1.4800/1.4780. We unexpectedly broke lower to 1.4732. The close at the low of the week after a near 400 pip collapse in just 2 days suggests further losses to 1.4690/70, perhaps as far as a buying opportunity at 1.4600/1.4580. Longs need stops below 1.4560. EUR/NZD has collapsed to what should be strong ...

# Review : The GBP/USD pair has faced strong support at the level of 1.2502 because resistance became support. So, the strong resistance has been already faced at the level of 1.2582 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. The level of 1.2502 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as minor support this week. Furthermore, the EUR/USD pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2502. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to move between 1.2502 and 1.2582. Also, it should be noticed that the double top is set at 1.2582. Additionally, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 1.2502 with the first target...

# Long-term perspective. The EUR/USD currency pair traded illogically again this week. This applies to individual macroeconomic events, fundamentals, and everything combined. Throughout the week, various macroeconomic information was published, but traders naturally focused on three or four main events. So: ECB meeting, FED meeting, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate in the United States. As expected by the market, the Federal Reserve raised the rate by 0.25%, hinting that this may not be the last tightening of monetary policy. The dollar fell. It can be assumed that the market had already discounted such a decision by the regulator, as it had been known for a long time. However, the next day, the European currency also fell, as the ECB also raised the rate by 0.25% and clarified that it would maintain the monetary policy tightening cycle. Now let's look at the 24-hour timeframe and see that everything has stayed the same over the past week. The euro did not rise or fal...

# Canada’s employment change expected to slow US nonfarm payrolls projected to fall to 179,000 Canadian dollar rallies for third straight day The Canadian dollar continues to rally today and has climbed 120 points since Tuesday. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.3490, its lowest level since April 21st. Canadian employment change expected to ease The markets will be treated to key employment numbers on both sides of the border later today. Canada is expected to have added 20,000 new jobs in April, following 34,700 in March. This would be the lowest reading in four months and would be a clear sign that the labor market is weakening as interest rate hikes make their effect felt on the economy. In the US, nonfarm payrolls for April could move the dial on the US dollar ahead of the weekend. The markets are braced for a drop to 179,000, following 236,000 in March. There is a growing feeling that the labor market, which is been surprisingly resilient to relentless rate hi...

# ECB expected to raise rates by 25 bp Federal Reserve hikes rates by 25 bp Powell signals a pause in June EUR/USD is trading quietly on Thursday, ahead of the ECB decision later today. ECB expected to hike, but by how much? All eyes are the ECB, which is expected to raise rates at today’s meeting. The burning question remains will the central bank increase rates by 25 or 50 basis points? The eurozone April inflation report, published Tuesday, didn’t provide any insights as both the headline and core readings barely moved and were very close to the estimates. Headline CPI came in at 7.0% and the core rate at 5.6%, which is well above the 2% target and much too high for the ECB. The Bank has been aggressive in its rate-tightening cycle and raised rates by 50 bp in March. Another 50-bp increase would help in the fight against inflation but also raise the likelihood of a recession due to the economy slowing down too abruptly. The markets are leaning closer to a 25-bp hike (80% prob...

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# The EUR/USD pair rebounded on Tuesday from weekly lows, back above 1.1000, keeping the familiar price range. The euro outperformed ahead of the European Central Bank meeting while the US dollar weakened due to lower US bond yields. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1030, up 0.31% on the day after peaking at 1.1048, more than a hundred pips above the level it had 24 hours ago. Renewed banking concerns, even after the takeover of First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC), triggered a decline in equity prices on Wall Street and a rally in Treasury bonds. Lower US yields weighed on the greenback. The DXY retreated from three-week highs near 102.50, back to 101.55. Market participants increased their bets of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later in 2023. For Wednesday, they still see the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points. It is expected to be the last rate hike. The FOMC will deliver the statement at 18:00 GMT and then Powell will offer a press conferenc...

# USD: Be careful chasing the dollar rebound The release of quarterly earnings in the US continues to paint a better picture for American corporates, with big tech companies beating estimates yesterday. However, concerns about the US banking sector have returned after First Republic’s (NYSE:FRC) shares dropped 49% following the larger-than-expected drop in deposits and announced restructuring plans. Ultimately, a risk-off mood has prevailed, despite the overall contagion effect having been significantly more contained than in previous instances in March: The 3-month FRA-OIS spread ticked higher to 32bp, but is a far cry from the 50bp and 60bp peaks seen last month. In FX, this still translated into a fully-fledged flight to safety, with the yen outperforming and the dollar recovering ground yesterday. High-beta currencies came under pressure, particularly the Norwegian krone, which is the least liquid currency in G10 and inevitably very vulnerable to adverse swings in risk sentiment....

# NGAS_02_05_daily Natural gas futures (June delivery) have been range bound over the past two months, consolidating the downtrend from August’s highs near the 2.00 round level. The sideways move is developing within a descending triangle and at the bottom of a downtrend, which is technically an ideal setup for a bullish trend reversal. Meanwhile, the RSI and the MACD have been making higher lows during the same period, reflecting fading selling forces too. Still, buyers may remain patient until the price successfully exits the triangle on the upside through the 2.42 level. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is currently flattening in the same region, while slightly lower, the 20-day SMA is adding a strong footing under the price. Should the price find enough support to run above the triangle, the spotlight will immediately turn to the previous high of 3.14, a break of which is needed to confirm an actual bullish trend reversal. Another successful battle ...

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# AUDUSD broke support at the lower end of the channel at 6660/40 for a medium-term sell signal with a high for the day exactly at resistance at 6640/60 to try a short on Friday - the pair collapsed to 6571 (a pip away from my 6670 target), which did offer a 70 pip profit. However, this market is very choppy & we saw a steep bounce back to 6619 by the close. Strong resistance at 6620/30. Shorts need stops above 6645. Resistance again at 6670/80. Shorts need stops above 6695. CADJPY shot higher by 250 pips to retest strong resistance at 100.30/60. A high for the day here but the close at the high of the day is likely to lead to further gains on Monday. Holding above 100.60/50 can target the March high at 100.88 then the December high at 101.30/40. Longs need stops below 100.25. EURUSD made a low for the day at strong support at 1.0975/55. Longs here again today need stops below 1.0940. A break lower is a sell signal which targeting 1.0880/70 Our longs were offered 80 pips on ...